M A Osborne Profile picture
Oct 19, 2021 17 tweets 4 min read Read on X
When I got #LongCovid in March 2020, I was 38 and healthy. If you are anything like I was then, it is hard to understand how bad Long Covid is. I think that we all have an instinct to just… look away. But, please, it is important that you look. 1/15
My own low-points: early on, I collapsed, shaking, and was taken to A&E in an ambulance. A year later, I did not have the energy to leave the house. Formerly, I was a marathon runner, but I brought on a bad relapse with a 700m walk. Many people have it much, much, worse. 2/
Long Covid feels like a hex. Your body and brain are wrong, in different ways on different days, unpredictable and unsettling. On the good days, you doubt yourself; on the bad, you doubt everything. The illness is capricious, boundless, wicked. 3/
Symptoms are interlinked. Clearly my worst cluster is neuropsychiatric, including co-occurring headache, dizziness, insomnia and anxiety, alongside brain fog. 4/
The name "brain fog" doesn't do justice to the experience. Practically, it means that you can't think right. It turns out that thinking is pretty core to meaningful existence! At my worst, over several minutes, I couldn't work out a seatbelt. 5/
Brain fog is a bit like being *extremely* sleep-deprived—remember, sleep deprivation is literally a technique of torture—but you can't sleep off brain fog. It feels like being lost in a fog, sensing dark shapes shifting around you, losing yourself. 6/
"Fatigue" similarly does no justice to the experience. Fatigue means there is less of you. You are less. You can't, just can't, get out of bed. This is *not* psychological (although fatigue may *cause* depression!). Your body, physically, does not have the energy. 7/
More precisely, maybe you could get out of bed, but the cost to your health would be horrific. Pushing beyond your limits is a sure-fire way to make all symptoms much worse, maybe even to bring on new ones. You may not realise your mistake for a day or so. 8/
But there are so many other symptoms! I have had ongoing gastrointestinal symptoms; at one point, diarrhoea more than twenty times per day. I also had a sore throat, continuously, for a year and a half, during which time my voice sounded hollow, weak. 9/
Then some weird symptoms. For six months, my eyesight got progressively worse; then, it got better. A dull ache halfway up my left arm, always happening at exactly the same time as a sharp, stabbing pain in my Adam's apple. 10/
Now, I am doing a lot better. I have not had any real symptoms for six weeks. What does that mean? Well, for me, it means the world. It feels like a miracle. However, otherwise, it means nothing. Doesn't mean you can ignore Long Covid. 11/
I continue to write about Long Covid, not because I'm trying to milk sympathy (I'm doing well, honestly), but because there are so many people still sick, and many more getting sick, many much more sick than I was. 12/
In the UK alone,

* 1.1 **million** people have had symptoms for over 4 weeks,
* 831,000 for over 12 weeks,
* 405,000 for over a year.
* 211,000 have had their day-to-day activities "limited a lot".

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

13/
And Long Covid seems eerily-similar to another virally-induced illness, ME/CFS. 17-24 million globally suffer from ME/CFS, many have suffered for decades, many without getting better (me-pedia.org/wiki/Prevalenc…)



14/
Worst, ME/CFS research has been shamefully underfunded, treatment usually more harmful than helpful, the suffering ignored. This has to stop. Don't look away. This is important.



15/15
Many thanks for all the responses to this thread; it means a lot. Particular thanks to those sharing their own stories.

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More from @maosbot

Apr 4, 2023
Random numbers (e.g. from PRNGs) are everywhere in AI—but are they actually a good idea? In particular, are random numbers the best we can do for numerical problems like linear algebra, integration and optimisation? Probabilistic Numerics (PN) has (very radical!) views 🧵 Ain image of a chaotic, glowing, six-sided die, generated wi
In numerical integration, e.g. estimating ∫_{-3}^{3} f(x) dx, one popular approach is Monte Carlo (named after the casino), which uses random numbers to select the locations x_i of evaluations f(x_i).

The PN approach to numerical integration is called Bayesian quadrature (BQ).
BQ—e.g. our algorithm WSABI—can be faster than Monte Carlo, using fewer evaluations to achieve a required level of error. In this example, Monte Carlo takes minutes (using thousands of evaluations) to reach an error that WSABI achieves in seconds (using a handful of evaluations).
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Apr 4, 2023
People who say that AI could not possibly kill us all seem very confident about the geopolitical relationships between states that have invested a lot in both AI and nuclear weapons
Even if AI does not "press the button", the rapidly-advancing, uncertain, progress of AI might threaten the balance of peace e.g. AI-powered underwater drones that prove capable of locating nuclear submarines—then a state might think it could launch a successful first strike
Even if a state THINKS that an opposing state is developing such a drone, peace could be threatened
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Mar 15, 2023
My views on covid seem to have become a bit, well—radical. Please allow me to explain. I did not start out radical. I am lucky to have a settled, establishment-adjacent, career. Three years ago, on the eve of the pandemic, I trusted the establishment. A headshot of me in a suit and tie standing in front of the A photo of me and Takao Ochi, a Japanese politician and form
I trusted the establishment when it said that there was ~no covid in Oxford in Mar 20. Then our little family all got it. I trusted the establishment when it said that, because we were healthy, we'd be fine. I trusted the establishment when it said kids don't get sick
Our 12 month old developed a fever (40.1 degrees) for three weeks, aside from one day—when, over a few hours, our baby's temperature dropped like a stone, into hypothermia, like that little body was just shutting down. And we still don't know about the long-term consequences.
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Feb 20, 2023
You can't judge a Twitter fiction account by a single tweet any more than you can judge a novel(la) by fifty of its words. You have to read for a while to absorb the voice, the themes, the trajectories. Nonetheless, here's a sampler of tweets from my favourite fiction accounts:
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Feb 19, 2023
It's Sunday—porridge day! Porridge, my (slightly-sticky) emotional crutch. I'm going to document my porridge with photos, in the hope that you may be able to share in my enjoyment.

- 125g salted butter
- 250g jumbo rolled oats
- 1.75L milk
- 1 tsp salt The ingredients for porridg...
1. *Fry the oats in butter* in a frypan Buttery oats frying in a pan
After about fifteen minutes, the oats are done frying. Golden fried oats in a fry pan
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Feb 5, 2023
I may be the only person alive holding these three beliefs simultaneously:

3. Covid is actually very bad
2. AI poses a potentially-existential threat
1. Random numbers are a bad idea for computation
My beliefs on random (including pseudo-random) numbers are spelt out in our book: probabilistic-numerics.org/textbooks/
For me, (pseudo-) random numbers are useful only in being unpredictable by humans—hence useful for fairness, cryptography etc
Read 4 tweets

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