Is Ireland using RIP.ie to provide weekly mortality figures to @EU_Eurostat?
First, here’s the regular update on the recent level of posts on https://t.co/O5V34UTYV7. It remains above what might typically be expected for this time of year.
@EU_Eurostat And here are the full series in weekly form for the past seven years.
Since Week 29 (roughly the middle of July), 2021 has had a higher level of posts than all recent years.
@EU_Eurostat One issue with the informal RIP.ie data was that it stood in isolation. There are few sources of timely statistics on mortality in Ireland. @euroMomo use estimates derived from registrations which show recent mortality in Ireland to be below normal. #cyberattack
@EU_Eurostat@euroMomo But Ireland has been added to separate data published by @EU_Eurostat who have been producing a special experimental series on weekly deaths since mid-2020. Initially, Irish data was not available but it is now (with the series beginning in late 2019)
@EU_Eurostat@euroMomo For comparison, here is the same chart but now with one that shows the figures for equivalent weeks from the informal series derived from RIP.ie.
@EU_Eurostat@euroMomo To confirm the impression of the previous charts, here is a single chart that combines both series.
The strong correlation is clear (rho = 0.98). The level of the informal RIP.ie series is, on average, about 5% higher but the pattern of changes are very close.
In recent weeks, the level of posts on RIP.ie has remained at a level above what might be expected for the time of year (using pre-COVID levels). July 2022 has been above all recent years (though some increase will be explicable by demographic factors).
Preliminary estimates of excess mortality for Ireland provided by @CSOIreland to @EU_Eurostat now extend to May 2022. These show a similar pattern to the opening post (though caveated that they are based on the same primary data).
@CSOIreland@EU_Eurostat And it appears other estimates may be catching up. @euroMomo now show mortality in Ireland to be continuously above the baseline in the latter half of 2021, though generally within the “normal range”.
Figures from @CSOIreland published earlier today show the level-shift in government spending that arose due to the pandemic. General government expenditure seems set to remain over €100 billion. It previously topped out at €80 billion in 2009/10.
@CSOIreland The government revenue series has been more volatile. The increase over the past 12 months is particularly noticeable – and it is more than just increases in Corporation Tax. Income Tax and VAT are also rising strongly.
@CSOIreland Putting the two series together shows when they diverged. With the crash of 2008, revenue fell from €71 billion to €54 billion. In 2020, it was a rise in expenditure that led to the gap emerging but the subsequent rapid rise in revenue has closed it.
International comparisons of the mortality impact of the COVID19 pandemic are fraught with difficulty. Almost all of them are faulty in one or, more likely, several ways.
At yesterday’s briefing @CMOIreland presented the following chart (this is the best version I could find).
@CMOIreland Some of the statements given by @CMOIreland and the deputy CMO in relation to the chart are reported here, noting particularly the comments on Portugal:
@CMOIreland The purpose of this thread is not to argue that any particular figure or approach is “right” but to show that the comparison made by @CMOIreland is faulty: it is comparing apples with oranges.
Here’s a short thread with some selected highlights.
The Irish economy continues to perform very well with employment and adjusted measures of domestic demand maintaining strong growth. The economy is now operating close to capacity.
With the unemployment rate dropping below 5%, the "labour market and prices" element of @IFAC’s heat map is beginning to provide signals of possible overheating pressures emerging.