PODCAST: “Hexapodia” Is þe Key Insight XXIX: Þe Swedish Central Bank Prize in Honor of Alfred Nobel Podcast, by @delong braddelong.substack.com/p/podcast-hexa…

Key Insights: Paul Feyerabend was right—science is whatever scientists do: anything goes. But what healthy sciences that... 1/
...survive and flourish and good scientists do is put first and foremost discovering what actually is and making theories to understand reality. So Kuhn and Popper are also right.

2. Economics has not been much of a science. But this Card, Angrist, Imbens—and Krueger—... 2/
...Nobel Prize marks a very big possible improvement in this respect.

3. Keep at it! Keep doing your work no matter the brickbats, and you may, someday, look back and recognize that you have changed the world.

4. Pets are good: they drive you to “become the person your... 3/
... dog thinks you already are”.

5. Hexapodia!

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More from @delong

19 Oct
equitablegrowth.org/brad-delong-wo…

Worthy reads from Equitable Growth: (1) Our Expert Focus series this month tells you why you should be paying attention to the extremely sharp Francisca Antman, Mónica... 1/
... García-Pérez, Mark Hugo López, G. Cristina Mora, and Eileen V. Segarra Alméstica. Read Aixa Alemán-Díaz, Christian Edlagan, and Maria Monroe, “Expert Focus: Latino leaders in economics and a call for more data & research about Latinos and Hi... <equitablegrowth.org/expert-focus-l…>... 2/
...(2) I remember, long ago, the wise Federal Reserve staffer David Wilcox telling me that he had realized that nowcasting was both the most difficult and most important part of his job. This looks to be an excellent forthcoming event on the current state-of-the-art... 3/
Read 16 tweets
17 Oct
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

First: How was it that really-existing socialist China was able to successfully “step away from the plan”, while really-existing socialist Russia was not? It remains a deep, deep historical mystery—to me at least:

Adam Tooze: How China Avoided... 1/
...Soviet-Style Collapse <noemamag.com/how-china-avoi…>... 2/
...One Video: Group of Thirty: G30 36th Annual International Banking Seminar: ‘The Group of Thirty was pleased to host its premiere annual event, the International Banking Seminar, on Sunday, October 17 from 9:00am–11:30am US EDT… <>... 3/
Read 10 tweets
12 Oct
Lecture Rehearsals: 3.4. World War II, by @delong braddelong.substack.com/p/lecture-rehe…

67:00 total…

3.4.1. Lecture—World War II: Overview: Structures, tides—but also the flaps of butterfly wings and chaos make history. World War II is very much a case of the last of these. Our world... 1/
...today would be very different had World War II not happened as it did. (07:51) Slides: <github.com/braddelong/pub…>

3.4.2. Lecture—World War II Origins: It is astonishing that after World War I anybody wanted to do "world war" again. Yet the Nazi and Imperial Japanese... 2/
... governments were willing to launch wars. And the allies—Poland, Britain, France, Denmark, Norway, Holland, Belgium, Greece, Yugoslavia, the USSR, and the USA were willing to fight to oppose them. (26:38). 3.4.3. Lecture—Blitzkrieg: World War I was profoundly shaped... 3/
Read 6 tweets
10 Oct
@dandrezner washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/1…

Very nicely done...

I confess that I have had a hard time taking Yale's Grand Strategy program seriously since I found, in the intro to Gaddis's _On Grand Strategy_, that among the "practitioners" of grand strategy he boasts of bringing... 1/
...into the program are... Peggy Noonan, and David Brooks.

As I had always understood it, tactics was "how do you win on the battlefield?"; operations was "how do you get your people to the battlefield?"; strategy was "how do you choose the right battlefield?"; & grand... 2.
...strategy was "step back: our goal is that the mayor of Strassburg speak German. Should this be our goal? And if it is, what is the best way to make that happen?".

Thus it would not have occurred to me to think that Henry Kissinger was a guy who had much to say about... 3/
Read 4 tweets
10 Oct
BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2021-10-10 Su, by @delong braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

First: One Video: Barry Eichengreen: In Defense of Public Debt: ‘Recent years have seen shifts in views of public debt. In the 1980s and 1990s, growing debt was a massive fear, leading people to... 1/
...believe that government spending and debt were out of control. The Global Financial Crisis led to a “wobble” in beliefs, but they were dismissed as no more than a temporary deviation. Covid–19 led governments around the world to run unprecedented deficits, which begs... 2/
...the questions: are these changes in attitudes justified, and will they last? It is clearly justified, given the extraordinary circumstances…. With the Covid–19 crisis, a war-like response was necessary…. However, the change in attitudes may pre-date the pandemic... 3/
Read 14 tweets
4 Oct
braddelong.substack.com/p/project-synd…

PROJECT SYNDICATE: The Strange Death of Conservative America
Everybody should read Geoffrey Kabaservice's 2012 book, Rule & Ruin!

American conservatives once sought to ride the waves of markets and innovation toward ever-greater wealth and... 1/
... prosperity, but now they cower in fear. And, as the trajectory of today’s Republican Party shows, that makes them a threat to democracy.

BERKELEY – If you are concerned about the well-being of the United States and interested in what the country could do to help itself... 2/
..., stop what you are doing and read historian Geoffrey Kabaservice’s superb 2012 book, Rule and Ruin: The Downfall of Moderation and the Destruction of the Republican Party, from Eisenhower to the Tea Party<global.oup.com/academic/produ…>. To understand why, allow me a brief... 3/
Read 22 tweets

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