Thread by @venanalysis

🧵The Juan Guaidó experience has been full of what we could (generously) call "unconventional" antics. Pointless infomercials, a banana-fueled coup attempt, a pathetic mercenary invasion, etc. Now w/ the focus on Vzlan foreign assets, the self-proclaimed one continues to surprise

Vzla is facing a bunch of legal cases thanks to pro-corporate int'l arbitration tribunals. The "interim govt", the one "recognized" in US courts, has decided that its strategy is going to be "when the creditors arrive let's just turn off the lights and pretend we're not home"

Yes, you read it right. The US-backed Venezuelan opposition (or its representation) is simply not showing up in court. This allows judges to greenlight corporations' efforts to collect the arbitration awards by moving to seize Venezuelan assets (more on this below)

The latest case involved three Cayman Islands-based subsidiaries of the Pharo group, a hedge fund. The corporations want to collect on defaulted Venezuelan bonds (sanctions meant the govt was no longer able to service debt), with amounts+interest totaling a whopping $1.2 billion

Though the Pharo case is not covered, we recommend this piece by @frrodriguezc on the international arbitration award disputes in US courts and the opposition's actions. It's long and in Spanish, but very insightful

franciscorodriguez.net/2021/10/15/se-…

This small town crook behavior from Guaidó and acolytes came into the spotlight when they failed to respond in a case involving ConocoPhillips and a massive $8.5 billion award, probably more than all the other pending amounts combined. This piece has more:
venezuelanalysis.com/news/15340

The US puppet and some people in made-up posts issued some less-than-convincing arguments that there was nothing to argue, they wanted to save attorney fees and there's an effort to have the award annulled at a World Bank tribunal. None of the alternatives seem very plausible

The no-show invited extra scrutiny because just days before a Delaware court document relating to yet another legal battle to collect on international arbitration awards mentioned a $1.3 billion agreement between the Guaidó make-believe administration and... ConocoPhillips

The made-up government tied itself into a knot in its denial, the court's "special master" asked to strike that part from the report without any real explanation. This led to the plausible speculation that it wasn't a formal "agreement" as much as a wink-wink understanding

This theory is not conjured from thin air. José Ignacio Hernández, former pretend "special attorney general" in Guaidó's make-believe administration, mentioned an understanding with Conoco in a leaked audio. Small detail: Hernández actually worked for corporations suing Vzla

At this point there's a temptation to shrug and tell the latest creditor to grab a ticket and wait in line. Between bondholders and arbitration awards,the amounts already exceed what Vzla's most prized foreign asset (Citgo) is valued at. It's hard to picture the company surviving

For now, paradoxically, it's the US Treasury Department keeping the corporations at bay with orders blocking the seizure of Venezuelan assets without special permission. But there are signs that these protections will be lifted in 2022, and the vultures are already lining up

This takes us to "interim president" and part-time used car salesman @jguaido. It's not unreasonable, and we bet our imaginary farm, that he'll land a sweet gig as a non-executive corporate board member. Or in a bs corporate-funded "democracy promotion" NGO. You read it here 1st!