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20 Oct, 14 tweets, 3 min read
I really like this question and the challenge of answering it. I believe what makes NFTs different is a transformative vision of a future that true believers find inspiring and achievable. In their eyes, the current speculative bubble is a mechanism for growing something enduring
A good analogy to NFT believers are the people who are really into colonizing Mars. You can argue with them on the technical demerits of their project (no air, far away, all our stuff is here, slow internet), but you're not really getting to the heart of their belief system.
People want to colonize Mars because they (pick one) want to live out a libertarian fantasy, have deep anxieties about human extinction, want humanity to take over the galaxy, want a fresh start in Year Zero without all the baggage that comes with life on Earth, you name it.
Like the singularity/superintelligence subculture that came before it, both the Martians and the NFT people have an apocalyptic vision of a future where things are fundamentally different. I mean apocalypse not as the end of the world, but that all is swept away and starts afresh
In the case of NFT world, that future is an internet decentralized by design so that it can never be co-opted by the rich and powerful or by the state, tying in to a kind of always-on video game layer over reality, and with strong guarantees for ownership provided by crypto woo
They see this future as the inevitable path for freedom and progress, and the current speculative mania as a way to both get in on the ground floor, and to fund the development of something grand and lasting, even if it has to go through many revisions and false starts.
Making arguments to these believers on technical grounds (like all the foundational issues with various blockchains) is as we say in Polish, like throwing dried peas against the wall. Technical problems will be solved, what matters is that they have seen the promised land.
You make as much headway trying to convince Mars nuts that we can't even keep people alive in the Earth desert yet unsupplied, or the strong AI people that we don't need to start making plans for immortality. Because you're not in a debate about technology but about the Millenium
What such beliefs have in common is that they offer a positive, transformative vision of a future made better by technology, with a story about why it is achievable and inevitable. Whereas the real world right now doesn't offer much hope or positive future at all. So you get NFTs
To all the fraud, speculation, and just basic insanity in this space, the NFT crowd can answer that they're replicating the same thing that happens in high finance, except now it's a different set of people who get to participate. The Fed creates money out of nothing, why not us?
I think recognizing the spiritual hunger that sits at the core of these movements (and remember how many in the space are young people!) is an important step to understanding them. Crypto culture is a mirror world that feeds off of the unexamined failures of the real world.
And it is also, like everyone points out, a massive scam that will hurt regular people the longer the bubble is allowed to inflate. But it's not just "name a star", it's "name a star" with the promise that you'll get to visit in a rocket very soon, if only enough people believe.
And I deserve a goddamned medal for 12 tweets on this without a single mention of Communism.
Here @nyquildotorg makes a good point, that NFT culture in particular is also Herbalife for young artists, promising them self-reliance and the ability to live off their work if they buy in, assuring them that every garage band can be U2 on the blockchain.

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More from @Pinboard

20 Oct
This is a fun paper that shows there's a decent chance we don't have to go to Mars, because Mars may eventually come to us (thanks to instabilities in Mercury's orbit). We'd only need to put landing gear on the ISS. perso.imcce.fr/jacques-laskar…
The authors ran a general relativity model on the Solar System extrapolated 5 billion years out. For each run, they changed the initial size of Mercury's orbit by a few millimeters. Since the Solar System is chaotic, this is enough to produce some spectacularly different outcomes
The upshot is—don't trust Mercury, especially when it's in retrograde. In many of these scenarios it gets pulled into a highly eccentric orbit by Jupiter, and then crashes into Venus or into the Sun. Add this to your list of anxieties if you feel optimistic about life extension.
Read 4 tweets
20 Oct
It would be hard to overstate the scientific return on investment from missions like New Horizons, which cost taxpayers less than the dining room on the International Space Station. It's enormously frustrating that we don't do ten of these a year.
To pick one egregious example, we visited Uranus exactly one time, in 1974, and discovered the planet is really weird, colder than any planetary model predicts but with a strangely hot corona, a bizarro magnetic field, and... that's it. No plans to go back. Just dads to the Moon.
(Sorry, got my dates wrong. The one Uranus flyby took place in 1986, with 1974 hardware.)
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
Okay, I think there's an Apple event? Let's do this. God help us all.
The Apple Music guy has some thoughts on R.E.M.'s uneasy embrace of mainstream success Image
The new AirPods have a thing called spatial audio, which will make it sound like you're listening to a band playing somewhere even though in reality you're on a bus
Read 27 tweets
17 Oct
The political messaging here from Wyden is *chef's kiss*. "We've been waiting years to raise taxes on the middle class!" Image
The fact that Democrats' Plan B for "let's build out abundant clean energy" is "here's a tax to make you all drive less and wear a cardigan" does not fill me with confidence. Image
Looking forward to whatever creative way the Democrats find to screw up the messaging around free universal pre-school Image
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
The part west of the mountain chain is Transylvania, where the Hungarians hid after they decided to stop marauding. They even hired Germans to build cities in the mountain passes to protect them from the next set of nomadic steppe raiders to get a gleam in their eye and head west
The strategy held until the first Mongol invasion. By that point the settled Hungarians had gotten soft and forgotten how to steppe nomad, so the Mongols ate their goulash. After that, Hungary doubled down on the "make Germans come and build fortified cities" strategy. It worked!
These fortified Saxon cities built as Mongol repellent are the reason Transylvania is called "Seven Cities" in many languages. The point of all this is that you should visit Transylvania if you can, because you can eat Hungarian food in lovely Saxon cities with Romanian wine.
Read 6 tweets
14 Oct
CO2 is a settler gas colonizing the atmosphere.
Here's the actual chart when you're not trying to make a ridiculous point. The key lesson in the chart is that the future of climate mitigation depends on either convincing 2/3 of humanity to stay poor, or orchestrating a massive global clean energy development program.
Put another way, we can continue to sell climate mitigation as "the good times are over" in the rich countries, or make it into a decarbonization gold rush that makes a lot of people rich (and hated on this site) while electrifying the poorest and most populous countries.
Read 5 tweets

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