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Oct 21, 2021 136 tweets 23 min read Read on X
1/ Who Gets In and Why: A Year Inside College Admissions (Selingo)

"Applying has become a quest for the 'right' schools at any cost, though others offer top-notch educations w/ high acceptance rates.

"Success is about how, not just where, you go." (p.5)

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2/ "College admissions is not about you; it’s about the college. It’s not about being “worthy” per se; it’s more about fitting into a college’s agenda, whatever that might be.

In a given year, that might mean more full payers, humanities majors, and students from the Dakotas.
3/ "Sometimes the goals are narrower: a pitcher for the baseball team, a goalie for the soccer team, or an oboist for the orchestra. Many colleges give special consideration to applicants w/ deep, lasting connections to the school (e.g., children of alumni & employees)." (p. 9)
4/ "Admissions is a big business that you have very control over. Top colleges are inundated with more well-qualified applicants than they can accommodate.

"The average U.S. four-year college accepts 6 in 10 applicants. Only 46 of the 1,400 accept fewer than 20% of applicants.
5/ "Why don’t more students apply to colleges that will actually accept them?

"Students lose perspective trying to figure out what colleges want rather than doing what makes them happy." (p.14)

People aren't great at predicting what will make them happy:
6/ "Schools market to students to boost application numbers and make the colleges look popular to other teenagers and alumni and in rankings. Some applicants would get accepted, but the more who applied and the fewer who got in, the better for the school’s reputation." (p. 20)
7/ "Around WWII, students typically applied to one school. Most colleges admitted anyone who graduated from high school. Those we refer to today as elite depended heavily on feeder/boarding schools where officials understood the academic standards and knew the student body.
8/ "But with increased choices for students, public & private colleges began competing for them.

"In 1971, the College Board began to offer the Student Search Service. It sold names and addresses of test takers—in other words, prospective students—to admissions offices." (p. 23)
9/ "If he had wanted, Royall could have cornered the political fund-raising market. But in the early 1990s, colleges were facing even deeper enrollment troubles than during the previous decade, the result of a decline in American births in the 1970s.
10/ "Schools needed outside help to run their admissions marketing operations and increasingly turned to consultants. In 1995, Royall decided the future of his business wasn’t in politics but in higher education." (p. 24)
11/ "An admissions office might want all the students in Colorado who scored better than a 1300 on the SAT—a request that might generate 12,000 names when the school can afford only 5,000. As a result, it receives an arbitrary selection of 5,000 names fitting its criteria.
12/ "This is why two students in the same town and attending the same high school with similar interests, grades, and test scores might receive mail from different colleges.

"Colleges want students able to pay, so they overbuy names of test-takers from wealthy ZIP codes." (p.29)
13/ "Comparing colleges requires students to digest hundreds of data points. As a result, they retreat to what is familiar or simple. They glance at rankings, follow their friends’ lead, or look for the nicest dorms or the universities that dominate basketball tournaments.
14/ "The media remind us constantly that no one really pays full price for college anymore.

"The problem for students who consider only very selective colleges is that financial aid there is usually based on family need, not merit." (p. 35)
15/ "Today’s admissions process seems intensely competitive and anxiety-ridden to parents who went to college in the 1980s. It’s not that there are more top-notch students; it’s that the top ones are now all applying to the same selective schools - & applying to way more of them.
16/ "The marketing is designed to make students focus on a “dream” school, a “perfect fit.” It’s not about colleges' similarities—it’s about their purported uniqueness. No one sends glossy brochures explaining that the top liberal arts colleges are pretty similar." (p. 38)
17/ "Over the last fifty years, half of American colleges and universities have become _less_ selective in their admissions decisions, as the best prospective students applied to only the same small group of elite schools, ignoring hundreds of lesser-known schools." (p. 38)
18/ "If your family can’t easily write a $21,000 check for the average in-state public college or $49,000 for the average private school—and do that for four or more years—be sure to have a less selective schools on your list where your chances for merit aid are better." (p. 49)
19/ "Colgate, at $72,000/year, accepts 25% of applicants & spends 1% of its financial aid on merit-based discounts. Rensselaer, w/ the same sticker price, spends one-quarter of its aid budget on merit-based aid. Yet both schools attract top-tier students w/ avg ACT scores of 32.
20/ "The University of Virginia admits 27% of applicants and spends 6% of its aid dollars on merit scholarships. In-state rival Virginia Tech accepts 70% & spends 75% of its aid without regard to financial need. Ten years later, graduates earn nearly identical average salaries.
21/ "Susquehanna University in Pennsylvania hit their enrollment target of 640 incoming students in 2019 only by offering tuition discounts that averaged around 70%. The typical freshman paid around $14,000 of Susquehanna’s advertised $48,000 sticker price for tuition." (p. 51)
22/ "When applicants overlook the mountains of published information about colleges, prestige becomes a matter of perception. At prosperous suburban high schools, that perception is shaped by students and parents who view college as another luxury good.
23/ "Just as driving a BMW/Range Rover or carrying a Louis Vuitton bag is a symbol of success, so too is acceptance to an Ivy League school.

"Students are careful about what they share w/ classmates, fearing the names of colleges they’re considering will be embarrassing." (p.58)
24/ "Early visits to colleges should focus on getting a feel for different types of campuses rather than on specific names. Many of these visits can be done within a day’s drive of home, even if the college isn’t on a student’s initial list." (p. 61)
25/ "Upper-middle-class and wealthy kids search for the 'perfect fit;' poor and working-class kids usually don’t have choices or don’t go to college at all." (p. 63)
26/ "Rankings indicate the quality of incoming students rather than what students learned or what they did after graduation. Rankings narrow people's focus to just a handful of schools. In turn, they send a message to college leaders about what they should prioritize." (p. 74)
27/ “The great irony of the U.S. News rankings is that the top 25 universities are not focused on undergraduates. They care about research and graduate education.”

"Prospective students are blinded by prestige and fail to consider what they really want out of college." (p. 79)
28/ "Standardized test scores are important but not as significant people think. Admissions officers use scores mostly as a check against the transcript. Do scores & grades line up? If not, a deeper look might reveal why, although grades & rigor always trump test scores." (p. 84)
30/ "The parts finished long before the applicant ever started the college search—the classes he took (or didn’t take) sophomore or junior year, the activities he started to spend time on in middle school, the teachers he got to know—are what admissions officers really study.
31/ "Instead of doing multiple applications at once, do one at a time to better make the case of why you are the right fit for each college. Don't abandon the cohesiveness of your own story, the one that is supposed to be at the foundation of “holistic” admissions." (p. 85)
32/ "Of the 26,000 domestic applicants for admission to the Class of 2019 at Harvard, 8,200 had perfect grade-point averages in high school, 3,500 had perfect SAT math scores, and 2,700 had perfect verbal scores. But Harvard had only about 1,700 spots to offer." (p. 88)
33/ "At Emory, applicants are rated in four areas: high school curriculum, extracurricular activities, recommendations, and intellectual curiosity, the last item a somewhat nebulous category determined by anything in the application from their essay to their activities." (p. 89)
34/ "While teenagers might think their credentials are first-rate based on the narrow view of their one high school, few actually are outstanding once they reach the wider pool of applications from around the world." (p. 91)
35/ "Admissions officers want signs an applicant refuses to acknowledge a ceiling on her ability and keeps persevering at tasks. Thhey look for rigorous courses in a variety of subjects, appreciate when students collect a recommendation from a teacher in another field of study
36/ "(a pre-med student with a recommendation from an English teacher, for instance), and look for students who have committed to an activity for an extended period of time and seek out a leadership position." (p. 94)
37/ "How colleges handle disclosures in applications about mental-health challenges is all over the map. They can’t discriminate, so many flag such applications for further review to be sure the college has the necessary resources for students to stay enrolled and graduate.
38/ "That’s why high school counselors generally advise students against writing about their mental-health history unless it’s specifically framed to explain inconsistencies in grades or as a story about emerging stronger from a struggle." (p. 97)
39/ "UW and other public flagships have sought out-of-state and international students in the last decade because they typically pay higher tuition, offsetting the erosion in state funding for higher education." (p. 99)
40/ "Unlike bank underwriters, who work with specific guidelines, admissions officers are more akin to Wall Street analysts predicting future performance of a stock based on past results. “The whole process is about finding potential.” " (p. 100)
41/ "Admissions officers look for devotion to an activity or hobby for a prolonged period of time rather than “sign-up clubs” to fill in the blank spaces on the application. Sustained involvement give students opportunities to become leaders and also display passion." (p. 102)
42/ "Admissions officers judge applicants’ achievements based on the opportunities they were given.

"What courses did they take from the classes available to them? How many students from their schools go to college? What might a college expect from them once they get to campus?
43/ "This puts an extra onus on applicants who go to the best public and private high schools and grew up with college-educated parents, violin lessons, and club volleyball games. They are expected to take an array of advanced classes, earn good grades, and get high test scores.
44/ "The starting line is different for an applicant who holds down a part-time job to support parents who didn’t go to college or attends a high school that offers few advanced courses and sends only a small number of graduates to college.
45/ "During early decision, applicants usually receive a more forgiving and leisurely read than during the rush of regular decision.

"Admissions is a constant balancing act to please bosses, faculty, coaches, alumni, donors, and (at public universities) politicians." (p. 105)
46/ "Children of well-off parents will be fine almost anywhere they go to college, especially considering the social and professional connections of their parents.

"Yet too many parents consider that higher education only has benefits with acceptance to a dream school." (p. 109)
47/ "Three times since 1978, the U.S. Supreme Court has heard cases about race-based admissions policies, and each time it has ruled that colleges may consider race or ethnicity as one of many factors in accepting students.
48/ "Frustrated by their losses in the courts, opponents of affirmative action appealed to voters. In the last 20 years, six states passed measures to ban affirmative action in educational settings, while two others did so through executive orders and legislation." (p. 110)
49/ "One study in 2009 by two Princeton sociologists found that a hypothetical Asian-American student needed to score 140 more points on the SAT than a white applicant and 450 more points than a black student to have an equal chance of admission to an elite school." (p. 111)
50/ "Getting accepted through early decision eliminates any possibility of comparing financial aid offers from multiple colleges." (p. 117)

"Early admissions is the strongest indication of what’s called “demonstrated interest”—the willingness of the applicant to actually enroll.
51/ "Measuring it helps protect the yield rate as schools wade through rising numbers of inquiries and applications. Why admit applicants—and risk looking less selective—who are planning to go elsewhere anyway?
52/ "How many of their emails did you open? How quickly? Do you follow them on social media? Did you sign in when an admissions rep visited? Do you regularly sign in to the school's Web site? Have you taken a campus tour? Pay attention to the essay about why you want to attend.
53/ "In 2017, a group of economists found that applicants who visited campus increased their chances of getting accepted by 30% vs. those who went only to off-campus events. (Those who went to off-campus events also got an admissions boost over those without any contact.)
54/ "Students with the highest SAT scores were really helped by visiting campus. That suggests colleges which track demonstrated interest are reluctant to admit smart students who don’t engage in the admissions process for fear of being used as a safety school." (p. 125)
55/ "Vanderbilt filled 53% of its 2018 incoming class through ED. But what Vanderbilt didn’t talk about as much is that its regular round would bring in upward of thirty thousand applications. The number of seats left to fill in the freshman class by then—just 750." (p. 128)
56/ "The certainty provided by ED largely benefits colleges because early applicants never find out whether they would have been accepted to another top-choice school or if a different college might have offered more financial aid (especially merit-based aid)." (p. 129)
57/ "All else being equal, the ED applicants from states that send few applicants will have an edge in the early round, especially if admissions officers expect the normal run of applications from those low-sender states in regular decision.
58/ "As in higher education overall, women outnumber men in the applicant pool and on campus. Qualified female applicants have a disadvantage during every round of admissions.

"During early decision—before a full picture of the incoming class forms—women hold the most leverage.
59/ "One study of ED at a highly selective college found that women were slightly less likely than men to be accepted in early admissions but 16 percentage points less likely during regular decision." (p. 136)
60/ "Top schools gamble on an ED applicant only when they believe regular decision won’t yield a stronger candidate. (Show why a school should take a chance on you, especially if your grades, curriculum, and test scores might be sub-par by the college’s standards.)" (p. 137)
61/ "The increasingly popular on-campus pre-college programs allow both sides to get to know each other. For admissions deans, the programs provide both demonstrated interest (leading to higher yield rates) and insurance that the applicant can do college-level work." (p. 141)
62/ "Overburdened admissions readers usually didn’t have time to search the Internet for additional information about applicants. Make sure to provide key details about everything, right down to descriptions of high school clubs and the specific duties of a summer job." (p. 146)
63/ "The preferential treatment given to athletes is far more systematic and prevalent than that for any other talented applicant. (Most schools have many more athletic teams than orchestras or debate teams.)

"But it is increasingly difficult to land an athletics scholarship.
64/ "8 million kids played high school sports in 2019, but only 495,000 of them ended up competing in college, and only 2% of the 8 million received scholarships.

"If you’re expecting a financial return on kids’ sports, you’re better off with a savings account.
65/ "Only 6 sports in Division I—football, men’s/women’s basketball, women’s gymnastics, women’s tennis, & women’s volleyball—award scholarships covering the entire cost of every athlete’s education.

"The best athletes get most of the money; the rest of the team gets leftovers.
66/ "It’s not uncommon for recruited athletes to receive little more than a few hundred dollars to cover books.

"But athletics can assist applicants in a different way: access to an elite school that otherwise might be off-limits academically." (p. 150)
67/ "For athletes, getting into a selective school is a matching game played with coaches rather than a lottery at the admissions office. Athletes and coaches must first find each other and be a good match. Once that happens, the coach becomes the applicant’s guide and advocate.
68/ "In general, coaches start looking at athletes a year or two before applications are submitted.

"Always ask coaches about where you stand, both academically and athletically.

"A plug from a coach or athletic official can provide a strong hook." (p. 153)
69/ "Applicants who kids of alumni had a 25% higher chance of getting accepted than a non-legacy with the same SAT score.

"But at 7 universities that dropped legacy preferences between 1998-2008, there was no short-term measurable reduction in alumni giving as a result." (p.159)
70/ "Admissions officers don’t visit every high school, just the ones that send lots of applicants or the ones they wish would send more.

"The visitor may be the reader of your application. Attendance at these sessions also helps colleges track demonstrated interest." (p. 164)
71/ "Thousands of studies over several decades indicate that grades and test scores predict first-year grades, and in some cases, GPA throughout college.

"AP and IB courses (especially AP Calculus) are one way top colleges measure the quality of a high school." (p. 168)
72/ "Test scores are used as a confirmation of grades and curricular rigor, esp. if your score is in the top quartile for the school. But it’s grades and course rigor, research shows, that more accurately measure academic engagement, discipline, and inquisitiveness." (p. 170)
73/ "Since the Great Recession, students have shunned humanities in favor of vocational majors in computing, business, & health. The rising cost of college has made higher education more of a transaction for this generation, who see a college degree primarily as a means to a job.
74/ "At liberal arts colleges, major isn’t much of a factor because they don’t typically admit by major. But large universities do, particularly in high-demand fields (computer science, engineering).

"At big schools, switching to those majors later is nearly impossible." (p.171)
75/ "Moravian gave Chris a sizeable chunk of money: $36,000 in discount coupons ('scholarships') and another $8,500 in state grants and federal loans: better than the $2,000 he was offered from the state school.
76/ "Don’t assume public college is always cheapest, especially in states known for high tuition at their public colleges (Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, & New Jersey).

"Sometimes students rebuff the most selective colleges because they get a lot of money elsewhere." (p. 175)
77/ "Numerous studies show that grades by themselves are a better predictor of success in college than test scores on their own.

"But both metrics taken together are the best predictor—better than either measure alone." (p. 176)

More on ensembles:
78/ "The SAT was first administered in 1926 to measure innate mental ability ('aptitude').

"The president of Harvard saw the SAT as a great equalizer that would allow Ivy Leagues to diversify their student bodies based on intelligence rather than family connections." (p. 176)
79/ "Coleman conceded that the College Board needed to reduce worry over the SAT & APs. Academic improvement in college levels out at 5 AP courses. Taking 8-10 doesn’t really influence how well applicants do in college, yet some admissions offices still tally AP courses." (p.177)
80/ "Be a big fish in a small pond. According to the research, applicants from the best high schools with legions of smart students and a menu of rigorous courses available to them face tougher odds to gain admission to elite universities because so much is expected of them.
81/ "If you go to a competitive high school and aren’t a star student, be realistic about your college list.

"Focus on the things you can shape in your college application. Which high school you are able to go to is rarely one of them." (p. 179)
82/ "The applicant who truly stands out has maxed out on curriculum, grades, and scores but also has an interest/talent that comes through in activities, essay, or recommendations. It’s the depth and consistency of the story that the application tells about a student." (p. 182)
83/ "The most important thing to improve prospects at a selective college is to take the toughest courses rather than focusing on the SAT. Once in those courses, aim for the best grades possible. It’s better to get a B in a difficult class than an A in an easy one." (p. 183)
84/ "Teachers are overwhelmed with requests for recommendations from seniors, so ask during your junior year.

"Consider a teacher in a class where you had to work hard for a grade, a teacher outside the subject you want to major in to show your breadth of interests,
85/ "or a teacher in a major subject area you had twice during high school to show your growth.

"Overall, admissions officers want to read a letter from someone who can adequately describe your weaknesses but also detail your potential." (p. 185)
86/ "The gender divide on college campuses cuts across racial and ethnic lines, but it is widest among black students, where women outnumber men almost two to one." (p. 190)
87/ "The applicant pool at a top college is a sea of sameness. One senior whose parents are lawyers worked a summer job as a pizza delivery driver. It’s something different. “You don’t see that anymore.” Even so, the reader finds the student lacking “a fire for anything.”
88/ "Unfortunately, most essays are mind-numbingly similar. They tend to focus on overcoming an athletic injury; dealing with anxiety, depression, or sexuality; or discovering oneself on a trip, with a fill-in-the-blank country such as Guatemala or Thailand.
89/ "Admissions officers scan essays. When one grabs their attention, they’ll have a closer read. Essays help at the margins rather than being the main factor. The one that sticks out has an authentic voice that gives readers a sense of what the student sees, feels, and thinks.
90/ "Those are the ones admissions officers share over lunch breaks. One is about a girl who loves orange juice and will miss family debates over pulp/no pulp. Another is about an interest in law after watching parents fight hospital bills following a serious medical diagnosis.
91/ "The best essays are honest slice-of-life stories, both entertaining and serious, that tell admissions officers something they don’t learn from another part of the application. They’re essays that aren’t trying to shoehorn seventeen years into 650 words." (p. 192)
92/ "Most seniors don’t stand out or are not what the university is looking for at that precise moment.

"While applicants see a rejection as a judgment of their accomplishments, a denial simply results from weighing one institutional priority over another." (P. 195)
93/ "Brand-name colleges worry that too many students will accept and there won’t be enough room in the dorms. They admit fewer students, knowing they’ll likely pull at least a few off the wait list. The odds of getting plucked from the wait list are low." (p. 208)
94/ "In the end, from the seven hundred or so applicants who agreed to wait, only twenty-four additional students secured a spot in Davidson’s Class of 2023." (p. 209)
95/ "The expected family contribution spawned by the CSS Profile (required mostly by private, selective schools) is typically higher than the federal one because it captures the equity in a home and the net worth of family businesses, unlike the FAFSA formula.
96/ "Either way, families end up paying even more. Consider a family where the EFC is $10K a year. That student is offered a financial aid package that covers only $50K of a $70K total bill. So the family who a government formula says can contribute $10K is charged $20K.
97/ "The gap itself is growing as tuition/fees rise, family incomes remain stagnant, and most schools are unable to make up the difference from their endowments. The average amount students are gapped at a public college is $11K; at private colleges, it’s more than $16K." (p.211)
98/ "Two-thirds of colleges and universities report that they get more female than male applicants. Among the 135 most selective colleges, half of the schools admit men at a higher rate than women. Even so, men still represent less than 45% of students at American colleges.
99/ "Schools worry about that number falling below 40% and changing the campus culture.

"That’s especially the case in regular decision when colleges might need to make up for shortages of men from early decision, when women are more likely to apply." (p. 215)
100/ "Data mining to find the best incoming class money can buy has been all the rage.

"Consultants claim their model is the best, but after one year being short on undergrads or giving out too much aid, the consultant is fired; another w/ a slightly different model gets hired.
101/ "The best models produce a class that maximizes revenue and has the kinds of students the college wants. That means financial aid doesn’t always go to the families that need it the most.

"Financial aid can sound like charity, but that’s not the best way to think about it.
102/ "Most colleges forego revenue in one category—tuition—to use those resources in another—aid. Instead of giving a full ride to a poor student and yielding one undergrad, colleges split it into four $15K discounts offered to wealthier kids who can bring money of their own.
103/ "This pulls in hundreds of thousands of dollars in tuition revenue over four years to pay for smart low-income students or other applicants the school desires.

"Colleges attract students with a big discount the first year, then provide less aid for the remaining years.
104/ "To figure out if a college might be doing this, go to the federal government’s College Navigator website to look at the average grant amount for first-year students compared with all undergraduate students." (p. 226)
105/ "The real cost of the purchase is revealed only at the back end of the process instead of at the front (unlike for most big-ticket items).

"Even with combined income of six figures, finding $50K-$60K every year for four years is not something most families can budget for.
106/ "Sticker prices seem similar, but actual costs vary widely.

"Net-price calculators on college websites don’t consider the merit aid available at many schools.

"Both Edmit and TuitionFit allow students to preview colleges' costs based on actual financial awards." (p. 229)
107/ "Public universities, such as Arizona State, Penn State, and Texas Tech, are using honors colleges as a tool to lure top students. They promise essentially a private, liberal arts education to a select group of high-achieving students at public-institution prices." (p. 231)
108/ "Research shows nothing influences the decision about where to enroll as much as the campus visit." (p. 237)

"When I wrote my last book, observed companies as large as IBM, Xerox, and Enterprise Rent-A-Car and as small as IDEO and Pinterest hire new college graduates.
109/ "For the most part, job applicants’ experiences and skills matter more than their alma mater or major.

"_How_ students go to college—from choosing a major and courses to finding internships—plays a much larger role in life after graduation than _where_ they go to college.
110/ "That said, those who obsess over highly selective colleges aren’t thinking about just any job. They’re focused on elite professions: Wall Street investment banks, and white-shoe law firms. They’re all filled with alumni from ultra-selective colleges.
111/ "So, too, are the clerkships in the Supreme Court, the ranks of the national media in New York, the staff of Senate offices in Washington, and the CEO suites of the Fortune 500. Elite colleges seem to lead to elite jobs, and in turn, elite money.
112/ "Around half of Forbes’s list of the most powerful people, as well as half of America’s billionaires, attended top schools. The problem is that this overlooks the role that the individual student plays in his own eventual success.
113/ "It’s difficult to separate whether what happens to these students after college is the result of who they are or what they did while in college. The research on this question is divided as well." (p. 243)
114/ "Dale & Krueger matched students with comparable SAT scores and class rank who were admitted to the same colleges but made different choices. Some went to the most selective colleges, such as Stanford, while others chose slightly less elite institutions, such as Penn State.
115/ "Earnings of the two groups were essentially the same. A student with a 1390 SAT who went to Miami University of Ohio but was also accepted by the Penn earned as much, on average, as the student with a 1390 who went to Penn. The findings speak to the power of the individual.
116/ "The average SAT scores of the colleges where the student applied were more likely to predict success than the school students actually attended.

"Critcs say the studies would have shown a definite variance in earnings if a broader range of schools had been considered.
117/ "But most well-positioned students' choices are usually of strikingly similar quality.

"Differences between what happens to grads of Rice (ranked 16th), the University of Rochester (29th), & the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (48th) are subtle at best." (p. 245)
118/ "Choosing a major and developing skills might count for more than the choice of college.

"Based on the Dept. of Education's College Scorecard, a computer science major from the University of Illinois (8th-ranked Duke) earned $92,200 ($95,200) one year after graduation.
119/ "A history major from 14th-ranked Vanderbilt makes $26,500: $3K less than one from ASU, ranked 115th (although the student leaves ASU more in debt). An econ major from Tulane, ranked 44th, earns $41,100, $2K less than from Binghamton, who also leaves with $3K less in debt.
120/ "Graduates of nursing, computer science, and information technology programs earn the most a year after college—almost no matter where they go—while psychology, drama/theater arts, and biology are the lowest-paid (likely b/c psych & bio majors go on to grad or med school).
121/ "One warning about the College Scorecard, however. The earnings embedded in the tool have their limitations: they only include graduates who took out federal loans, and, for now, first-year salaries." (p. 245)
121/ "Marketing majors who have skills in SEO and SQL earn $20K more a year than those without those skills—regardless of degree. If liberal arts graduates gain proficiency in technical skills like data analysis, the prospects of landing entry-level jobs increase substantially.
122/ "Worry less about specific name brands and even majors. Acquire skills and experiences once you’re on campus, such as finding an undergrad research project or landing an internship. Remember: fewer than 1/3 of college graduates work in jobs related to their majors." (p. 247)
123/ "It just may be that the ultimate reward of a degree from a selective institution has little to do with what happens in the classroom. There’s not much (or any) evidence that an Ivy League education is better than one from a college a rung down the ladder.
124/ "If you’re a well-prepared student whose parents attended college, you’ll likely find important connections and pathways to success at any school on your list.

"Remember to consider factors like graduating on time, affordability, & access to faculty, mentors, and advising.
125/ "There are so many factors other than college contributing to your ultimate path to success that focusing exclusively on this one narrow stretch of it seems out of whack. Are you majoring in the right thing? Have you pursued the right internship?
126/ "Did your parents let you “fail” enough as a teenager to build resiliency and the ability to navigate the uncertainty of a changing workforce? Do you know the right people at the firm where you’re applying for your first job?" (p. 249)
127/ "Admissions has escaped the seismic shifts that jolted other industries (Hollywood, retail malls, publishing). That’s partly because higher education is heavily regulated. To access tens of billions of dollars in federal grants and student loans, colleges must be accredited.
128/ "Colleges and universities operate like a cartel. Nowhere is that more evident than when trying to gain access to their front door. High-profile schools, both among the buyers and sellers, set the rules of engagement, while colleges with fewer resources follow along.
129/ "Unlike in most other industries, a new entrant can’t knock off established players. In admissions, there’s no Netflix or Spotify pushing colleges to change as those companies forced television networks and radio stations to up their game." (p. 253)
130/ "In 2018, UChicago went test-optional. 10-15% of applicants didn’t submit the ACT/SAT, the same proportion eventually admitted without scores. They typically submitted supplemental materials instead—creative writing, research projects, or a clip of a performance." (p. 254)
131/ "Colleges dictate the process because we allow them to. The best way for students to gain leverage is to broaden their search beyond super-selective schools—the ones that have amassed great fortunes and generate so much attention that they reject more than 90% of applicants.
132/ "If you focus your search on what you want to do in college rather than where you go to college, you’ll find schools that will provide a superb education at a reasonable price but that may not be wealthy or necessarily well-known.
133/ "Just as Canada Goose makes a fine winter jacket—but not the only fine winter coat—Harvard, Princeton, Stanford, Michigan, and Williams don’t have an exclusive claim on great educations.
134/ "The students I met who ended up being most satisfied with where they went to college were the ones who embraced ambiguity rather than getting fixated on one or two schools.

"Stop using the college where _you_ want them to end up as a trophy for your parenting." (p. 258)
135/ Related reading:

If Money Doesn't Make You Happy, Then You Probably Aren't Spending It Right


How to Live a Boring Life


Man's Search for Meaning


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More from @ReformedTrader

May 18
1/ Skewness and kurtosis

* Everything has excess kurtosis
* Unlike market returns, individual stocks aren't negatively skewed
* Option prices underestimate kurtosis and overestimate negative skewness
* Implied moments don't consistently predict stock returns
* Sell options?? Image
2/ Asset classes have fat tails, and most have negative skewness.

Kurtosis & expected returns


Kurtosis-Based vs Volatility-Based Asset Allocation


Impact of Skewness and Fat Tails on Asset Allocation

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3/ This has practical consequences, and it's a good idea to be prepared.

Give me a moment: Optimal leverage in the presence of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis


When Genius Failed: The Rise & Fall of Long-Term Capital Management


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Read 5 tweets
Jan 1
1/ Fact, Fiction, and Factor Investing (Aghassi, Asness, Fattouche, Moskowitz)

"We reference an extensive academic literature and perform simple but powerful analyses to address claims about factor investing."

aqr.com/Insights/Resea…
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2/ #1. Fiction: Factors are Data-Mined with No Good Economic Story

"Value, momentum, carry, and defensive/quality pass the more stringent statistical tests.

"Many of the factor tests conducted in papers are on variations of a few central themes."




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3/ "Value, momentum & defensive/quality applied to US individual stocks has a t-stat of 10.8. Data mining would take nearly a trillion random trials to find this.

"Applying those factors (+carry) across markets and asset classes gets a t-stat of >14."





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Read 14 tweets
Dec 31, 2023
1/ Happily Ever After? Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce, and Happiness in Germany (Zimmermann, Easterlin)

"The formation of unions (separation or divorce) has a positive (negative) effect on life satisfaction. We also see a 'honeymoon period' effect."

researchgate.net/publication/49…
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2/ "The model's four terms describe different life stages for an individual who marries during the sample period. The intercept reflects the average life satisfaction of individuals in the baseline period [all noncohabiting years that are at least one year before marriage]."


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3/ " 'How satisfied are you with your life, all things considered?' Responses are ranked on a scale from 0 (completely dissatisfied) to 10 (completely satisfied).

"We center life satisfaction scores around the annual mean of each population subsample in the original population."
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Read 29 tweets
Aug 13, 2023
1/ Short-sightedness, rates moves and a potential boost for value (Hanauer, Baltussen, Blitz, Schneider)

* Value spread remains wide
* Relationship between value and rates is not structural
* Extrapolative growth forecasts drive the value premium

robeco.com/en-int/insight…
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2/ "The valuation gap between cheap and expensive stocks remains extremely wide. This signals the potential for attractive returns going forward."


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3/ "We observe a robust negative relationship between value returns and changes in the value spread.

"The intercept of ≈10% can be interpreted as a cleaner estimate of the value premium, given that it is purged of the time-varying effects of multiple expansions & compressions." Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5, 2023
1/ Advanced Futures Trading Strategies (Robert Carver)

This really interesting book tests some strategies that I haven't seen in the academic literature.

Read Part 1 to see how the author builds portfolios; the new stuff is explored in Parts 2-5.

https://t.co/p1QdFCE9F1amazon.com/Advanced-Futur…



Trend and carry in various volatility regimes
Trend using spot prices
Carry with seasonality corrections
Value (5-year mean reversion) in futures markets
2/ Part 1: Basic directional strategies
Part 2: Adjusted trend, trend and carry in different risk regimes, spot trend, seasonally-adjusted carry, normalized trend, asset class trend
Part 3: Breakouts, value, acceleration, skew
Part 4: Fast mean reversion
Part 5: Relative value


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Skew
Fast mean reversion (approximately two-day holding period)
Fast mean reversion conditioned on trend
3/ Related reading

Time-Series Momentum


Two Centuries of Trend Following
https://t.co/R6JQb6Cg96

Carry
https://t.co/poFk6OWQsO

Value and Momentum Everywhere
https://t.co/l0wVgAOrhL

Leveraged Trading
https://t.co/1bKFEaD5cu



Read 4 tweets
Apr 2, 2023
1/ Natural course of health & well-being in non-hospitalised children & young people after testing for SARS-CoV-2

"Some test-positives & test-negatives reported adverse symptoms for the first time at 6- & 12-months post-test, suggesting multiple causes."

thelancet.com/journals/lanep…
2/ "The broadly similar pattern of adverse health and well-being reported as new-onset at 6- and 12 months among test-positives and test-negatives highlights the non-specific nature of these symptoms and suggests that multiple aetiologies may be responsible."
3/ Related reading:

Efficacy of Vaccination on Symptoms of Patients With Long COVID


Immunoglobulin signature predicts risk of post-acute COVID-19 syndrome
Read 4 tweets

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