Given historical and current events, will be starting this thread to post on Seapower, the oceans as our global commercial commons and most important strategic domain, and all ships, vessels, boats, etc, floating & submerged, that interest me. "Look always to your moat!"
In peace & war, the sea & its sailors are - esp if you speak English - your most crucial strategic doman. The ships at sea as combatants & escorts & cargo/POL carriers plus your ports/wharves/railheads all join up to make supply chains work ... Our most precious infrastructure
This very good visual should focus the mind on what truly matters ... why fleets, naval and merchant, matter so much to the life and death of nations, especially in the Anglosphere, as the British Empire spread by sea ... and why our ancestors were, wisely, 'offshore balancers'
To put today's crisis in perspective: snap shot from the approaches to Long Beach port. Every ship waiting has a next sail for a next 'job'. You can see the concertina effect when ships cannot offload cargo & load new cargo & sail on-nightmare for rail, trucks ... and Insurers
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US delaying arms & munitions to Israel is all about domestic US politics - US allies especially in the Middle East see Biden Admin wiling to dirk *even Israel* here means Egypt, Jordan, Gulf Kingdoms etal start to reevaluate relying on the US vs an Iranian arc with PRC/RUS ‘help’
Rightly or wrongly, the US' allies seeing that if the Biden WH will cut *even Israel* adrift on arms and munitions supplies in a war after a massive terrorist attack, that their alliance with the US, too, operates purely at the whim of domestic US politics ... Obama's 3rd term
A global military alliance of intelligence support & arms sharing (going to standardisation of kit & calibres etc) is only sustainable, ultimately, to the degree that allies trust in the support of each other, esp when the going is hard... no one respects disloyalty esp enemies
Putting Tucker to one side here .... weirdest part of Putin's villain role in the contemporary Western mind (admittedly an historically illiterate mind] is that if Putin dropped dead tomorrow, his successor would follow the same policies, probably more aggressively.
In July 2018, I wrote this piece, "The Sources Of Russian Conduct", on my blog, in an effort to put "The Russians" in some context for that part of the lay Western readership that was not totally brain damaged by America's internal convulsions
Reality is that the West will never be close to Russia - we will have bouts of accomodation & OK times - but we also have many friction points. But we will need a modus vivendi with Russia in space, Arctic, and esp as Russia spans 11 time zones & Eurasian landmass
I am shocked - shocked I tell you - that the same people who were (catastrophically) wrong about Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etal, have now been proven wrong about the war in Ukraine ....
Twitter trying to work out whether Prigozhin is "for real" this time or whether he is a character from the Cyrillic production of Turkey's 2016 'not quite a coup' ... or an Ernst Rohm or Lin Biao...regardless a lesson taught in these regimes is to never overrate your usefulness.
A key change in how RUS state fought the UKR war over past 6-10 months was to move slowly from 'war on the cheap' (Luhansk/Donetk militias & Wagner) to mobilising Russian reserves + bringing in more of the regular Russian armed forces hence extensive prep for UKR offensive
On any view, Wagner in 2022 filled gaps the RUS state wanted filled-it provided combat power ivo Soledar & Bakhmut in late 2022/early 2023. At same time, regular RUS units were being filled out & commencing the sappering & digging in for the very slow UKR offensive we see now.
ANZAC Day Thread
Tuesday is ANZAC Day (April 25th) which commemorates the landing in 1915 by the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps at Gallipoli. It is Australia's national day for remembering our war dead, wounded, and war veterans, and their families awm.gov.au/commemoration/…twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
If you or a family member are "On Parade" on Tuesday and not in uniform, a useful dress and bearing guide from @MHHVic here
For #AnzacDay, an Australian tradition is the making of "Anzac Biscuits". The Anzac Biscuit is hardy, it is practical, it goes well with any hot brew, esp Tea, and, has become, since the Great War, the sustenance of a free people. Recipe here awm.gov.au/articles/encyc…
Retirement will be a luxury that occurred in a brief historic period of high birth rates where workers could support retirees .... hard to have retirements with QE, money printing, and, especially, low birth rates.
Sorry but anyone who thinks what is happening in France with riots over a minor upwards revision of pension ages is not coming to every western society is kidding themselves… Right politics that made it harder not easier for larger families are their own worst enemies
Likewise western military establishments will be very hard to maintain in societies where birth rates are so low … the devising of foreign legions and Wagner groups in all but name - however well disguised by law - are as much the likely Western future absent action as the past