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22 Oct, 6 tweets, 2 min read
I don't think people grasp the degree to which Biden dangerously mangled a critical issue at a critical time. The US has a doctrine of "strategic ambiguity" with respect to whether we will or won't invade Taiwan. Our legal cmtmnt to come to their defense expired decades ago
In this interview, though, Biden said that of course we were committed to coming to their Taiwan's, and seemed to suggest an Article 5 obligation to them. This is a really big blunder on major, live issue.

This was very quickly walked back. cnbc.com/2021/08/20/us-…
Biden is really slipping, and has been since before he even started campaigning. A lot of people are in denial about this, but it matters. He's slipping, and his confusion here on this basic point was kind of a big deal.
*coming to Taiwan's defense
I think it helped us all in this instance that it was so clear he was confused & babbling, so nobody took the remarks seriously, even in China. When I saw them reported I immediately knew it was not a change in policy, & he was babbling, & it would be walked back quickly.
I'm certain all our allies & enemies knew this, as well, i.e. that our CINC was 180 degrees turned around on what our commitments are to a key ally in this ongoing, very dangerous game of chicken. Good times!

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More from @jonst0kes

jonstokes.com Profile picture
22 Oct
Hi, former professional prepper here who has spent years gaming this out:

The answer to your question is, "yes."

Have you actually never seen cellphone footage of gunfights from Lebanon, Mexico, Syria, etc.?
The more internet satellites go up, the more of a definite "yes" that is for pretty much all forms of disaster no matter how widespread. If the world totally collapses into grid-down chaos in, say, 2030, we'll still be on various decentralized services via solar + satellites.
Ok, I'll cop to having a weird feed. I guess not everyone regularly sees commentary on the "incredible drip" of this or that insurgent or street fighter from a series of crumbling cities, thanks to their choice of sneakers, watches, etc.
Read 6 tweets
jonstokes.com Profile picture
22 Oct
As a thought experiment, I wonder what would happen if we took all the arguments around how "cancel culture doesn't exist" or that "concerns over it a moral panic because nobody lost their job," & applied them to the media climate of the post-9/11 run-up to the Iraq war?
It's widely agreed that the media was in the grip of war fever & pro-war groupthink, & that this was ruthlessly enforced somehow. But did any media anti-war voices lose their jobs? Couldn't we say the efforts to shut down anti-war voices were just a few isolated incidents?
How many people in the media or elsewhere really suffered lasting career damage for opposing the war? Isn't the absolute number of incidents here quite small? Why does anyone care about that, then? Why not say there was no groupthink or pressure?
Read 11 tweets
jonstokes.com Profile picture
21 Oct
Just unprecedented demand for *zooms in on pic* french fried onions. People are just spending their stimulus money & buying these french fried onions in bulk. Definition nothing else weird going on!
If this bit annoys you, you should unfollow or mute me, because I'm gonna keep doing "people just so HUNGRY... unprecedented surge in demand for $FOODSTUFFS right now... such a healthy, healthy economy, like a young athlete!" for the next 2 months.
To clarify why whether you're Mayor Pete or a right-wing inflation hawk, your demand-side explanation for all the shortages is simplistic, here are some things that've happened:

- Factory closures in Asia due to flooding, blackouts, COVID
- Shipping capacity offline due to COVID
Read 7 tweets
jonstokes.com Profile picture
20 Oct
This IMO is actually the most likely scenario. Not that I know anything, I am but a simple dude on Twitter etc.

But I could see this scenario: soon a short naval conflict => we lose => internal division & collapse due to recriminations, festering issues, wrecked supply chains.
We very foolishly outsourced most of our manufacturing to our main rival, under the unbelievable theory that if we let them make all our stuff in exchange for our dollars, they would never go to war with us because we owe them too much money.
"China won't go to war with its #1 customer who has paid them in IOUs." This now sounds as idiotic as it in fact is, but it really was the Rubinite case for hollowing out US manufacturing & civilian maritime infrastructure, & having the economy shift to services.
Read 4 tweets
jonstokes.com Profile picture
20 Oct
Surely, this is a sign of incredible market demand for this $19 polishing cloth, & not of supply chain problems. It is such a strong economy that causes so many people to want such a $19 polishing cloth. Supply chains are fine!
Do the proponents of the theory that the reason goods are scarce is a surge in demand never stop to consider that a supply chain that cannot handle demand is a supply chain that is not functioning properly, ipso facto? 🤯
It's like the people saying calm down b/c supply chains are broken because of big shocks from corona & weather. Well yes, but supply chains that cannot handle big shocks are craptastic, are they not? Because the fact that big shocks of some kind will come is surely predictable.
Read 6 tweets
jonstokes.com Profile picture
20 Oct
As someone who has a religion & takes it seriously -- a religion with its own metaphysics around sex, gender, & identity -- I'm amazed that people don't see this as a violation of the Establishment Clause. This is 100% religious. Religion is a great thing! But from @StateDept?
Whatever metaphysical commitments people have to the idea of an inner, "felt" gender essence that they need to express outwardly are fine with me. As a fellow haver of metaphysical commitments many find ridiculous, I love that for them. 🤝

I don't love it from my government.
You have your gender, I have my Holy Spirit, this other person has her reincarnation -- everyone gets to have a thing. Some people have many such things all at once, which is great. I am big on religious pluralism. Pluralism is good. Secularism is good.
Read 8 tweets

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