#UFCVegas41
Vettori v Costa
Bit annoyed that Vettori's let Costa push it up to 205 pounds from 185 pounds, but I feel like it won't change the shape of the fight too much if Costa's being an idiot.
Costa starts fast, Vettori drags him down late & RNCs
Vettori v Costa
Bit annoyed that Vettori's let Costa push it up to 205 pounds from 185 pounds, but I feel like it won't change the shape of the fight too much if Costa's being an idiot.
Costa starts fast, Vettori drags him down late & RNCs
That is if Costa still even has enough self-confidence to actually work. Feel like Vettori's the side on cardio, and I have a gut feel that Costa goes to pieces in late rounds as soon as he becomes the nail rather than the hammer.
Vettori sub nice price, live Vettori entry good
Vettori sub nice price, live Vettori entry good
Have some ends ITD from the opener but wouldn't hit at current pricing due to the Light Heavyweight thing. Would definitely recommend betting Costa KO instead of decision, since Vettori is so available to hit + I can't really see Costa going a hard 25 mins.
Dawson-Glenn
Dawson's probably gonna hit a brick wall eventually, but can't really see Glenn be the one to do it. I do think GTD & Dawson decision are both generous pricing. Glenn's stupid tough, has solid guard retention and both have elite cardio.
Dawson's probably gonna hit a brick wall eventually, but can't really see Glenn be the one to do it. I do think GTD & Dawson decision are both generous pricing. Glenn's stupid tough, has solid guard retention and both have elite cardio.
Dawson probably gets on top for good stretches of the fight and is super reliable with his volume. Also don't really see Glenn having the power or explosion to turn a singular moment of Dawson defensive lapse into a win.
Santos fight wasn't the best look for Dawson
Santos fight wasn't the best look for Dawson
Buuuut Santos is a massive LW who's a top 5 grappler in the division whilst fresh. Glenn's a tall-but-noodly FW who I think just kinda gets stuck underneath for good stretches.
I've got Dawson dec, sub/dec and a few similar spots. Feel like a Glenn win is a finish.
I've got Dawson dec, sub/dec and a few similar spots. Feel like a Glenn win is a finish.
Clark-Edwards
Kind of a shitshow. Feel like Clark has to wrestle to cover her price, since Edwards is pretty dire in that phase. Standing Clark's cleaner, but Edwards has surprising power for a woman and can get away with some solid physicality.
Ends ITD/Clark sub tempting
Kind of a shitshow. Feel like Clark has to wrestle to cover her price, since Edwards is pretty dire in that phase. Standing Clark's cleaner, but Edwards has surprising power for a woman and can get away with some solid physicality.
Ends ITD/Clark sub tempting
But there's a concern that Clark doesn't proactively pursue the grappling which means that Edwards'll be looking live standing on physicality.
Caceres-Choi
How wrong can you be on Caceres +240 here? Especially since it's not like Choi's going to bring pressure wrestling out of his back pocket and Caceres is just generally a B- everywhere.
Caceres' recent run is hilariously weak competition, though.
How wrong can you be on Caceres +240 here? Especially since it's not like Choi's going to bring pressure wrestling out of his back pocket and Caceres is just generally a B- everywhere.
Caceres' recent run is hilariously weak competition, though.
Would rather be holding Choi KO than ML at this kind of pricing since I think the main way he covers -300 relies on getting an almost-pure standup fight & Caceres chin seemed like it was fading a bit before his recent run against absolute pond scum (aside from Peterson)
Grant-Trinaldo
Understand that Trinaldo's old, but he's fighting a 37 year old who can't really set a pace whatsoever? Thought the price here'd be in the -250's since I just think Trinaldo's a lot more skilled at a slow, low-volume staring match and has most of the attributes
Understand that Trinaldo's old, but he's fighting a 37 year old who can't really set a pace whatsoever? Thought the price here'd be in the -250's since I just think Trinaldo's a lot more skilled at a slow, low-volume staring match and has most of the attributes
Grant probably greater single shot power, but I don't really see a win condition beyond 'awful split dec in a 15 min fight Trinaldo has the cleaner connections in' or single moment massive KO. Trinaldo was just minute competitive with Salikhov who'd be -500 against Grant.
And I feel like Grant's volume and cardio are actually worse than Trinaldo's. Like I understand fade Trinaldo era if he's getting somebody high tempo, but Grant is practically a gift at this point in his career.
Negumereanu v Villanueva
Villanueva KO1 into livebetting Negu who should just pull away on volume and enthusiasm after a shaky R1 if he doesn't get killed.
Price about right on the ML, I just think Negu entry after R1 you'll have dodged most of the risk.
Villanueva KO1 into livebetting Negu who should just pull away on volume and enthusiasm after a shaky R1 if he doesn't get killed.
Price about right on the ML, I just think Negu entry after R1 you'll have dodged most of the risk.
Rodrigues-Park
Probably the best-matched fight on the card. I do think Rodrigues has a bunch of edges in the earlygoing on power, BJJ, athleticism etc.
Park'll probably have to rely on pulling away late.
Am surprised the under's at the current price.
Probably the best-matched fight on the card. I do think Rodrigues has a bunch of edges in the earlygoing on power, BJJ, athleticism etc.
Park'll probably have to rely on pulling away late.
Am surprised the under's at the current price.
Park's GTDs so far have been due to a combination of elite durability from his opponents (MAB) and dominant-but-not-finishing grappling time (Tafon/Phillips). Can't see Rodrigues being controlled by Park unless he's exhausted, and I don't think he's super-durable.
Which leaves a high tempo MW small-cage fight in which I think both guys are live for the KO and Park seems risk-taking enough to make submission live for Rod.
Also that Hernandez-Park sudden cardiodeath continues to be an oddity to me.
Also that Hernandez-Park sudden cardiodeath continues to be an oddity to me.
Onama-Jones
Onama probably relying on exploding into a KO1 to win this one, honestly. If I'm him I'd be trying to bite the mouthpiece since it's not like Jones is an elite defensive mastermind, expecting a lateish Jones finish.
Onama probably relying on exploding into a KO1 to win this one, honestly. If I'm him I'd be trying to bite the mouthpiece since it's not like Jones is an elite defensive mastermind, expecting a lateish Jones finish.
Neta-Ricci
Feel like Ricci ITD or sub better than ML. Similar dynamic to Godinez last week where there's a gigantic gulf in grappling ability, but the size dynamic could make standup a riskier proposition for Ricci.
Feel like Ricci ITD or sub better than ML. Similar dynamic to Godinez last week where there's a gigantic gulf in grappling ability, but the size dynamic could make standup a riskier proposition for Ricci.
Pickett-Staropoli
Kinda think Pickett's the side here. Staropoli being unable to do anything but get ragdolled by Dolidze wasn't a great look, and Pickett's comparable from a strictly athletic POV.
Also Pickett's wilted out against Tafon & Soriano who are just hulks
Kinda think Pickett's the side here. Staropoli being unable to do anything but get ragdolled by Dolidze wasn't a great look, and Pickett's comparable from a strictly athletic POV.
Also Pickett's wilted out against Tafon & Soriano who are just hulks
Don't put any massive emphasis on the Wright fight since it was so quick, but I feel like Pickett'll be able to get grappling success here and has pretty staggering physical advantages in everything but cardio/output here.
Herbert-Worthy
GLASS CANNON FIGHT
Tbh think Worthy's a bit wide. Herbert cleaner, straighter puncher but Worthy's got the grappling upside, throws legkicks and I unscientifically trust his toughness/grit more. Haven't pulled trigger yet, but hoping it widens a little more.
GLASS CANNON FIGHT
Tbh think Worthy's a bit wide. Herbert cleaner, straighter puncher but Worthy's got the grappling upside, throws legkicks and I unscientifically trust his toughness/grit more. Haven't pulled trigger yet, but hoping it widens a little more.
Lacerda-Molina
Lacerda might be another Royval, but judging by his limited regional tape (Couldn't find footage of the one time he's been to R2) he seems like a crazy person. High octane kicks, guard subs and a very enthusiastic grappling style.
Lacerda might be another Royval, but judging by his limited regional tape (Couldn't find footage of the one time he's been to R2) he seems like a crazy person. High octane kicks, guard subs and a very enthusiastic grappling style.
Molina I feel is the side since he's proven 15 minutes of output where I'm not sure whether Lacerda is a Randy Costa or a Brandon Royval. Ends ITD great bet here based on them probably combining for 200+ SS over 15 minutes and a fairly strong possibility of Lacerda cardiodeath.
Souza-Markos
Feel like Markos style is just a bit more practically put together. Should be busier standing, and I think her wrestling's better even if she isn't necessarily the better pure BJJ fighter.
Would flip the line, personally.
Feel like Markos style is just a bit more practically put together. Should be busier standing, and I think her wrestling's better even if she isn't necessarily the better pure BJJ fighter.
Would flip the line, personally.
Martinez-Zviad
Hard to get much of a read here. Don't like what we've seen of Martinez in response to grappling, and his UFC wins have all kind of aged awfully. Zviad big step up in competition, though.
Zviad -250 was stupid 'GEORGIAN AUTOBET' kinda energy, though.
Hard to get much of a read here. Don't like what we've seen of Martinez in response to grappling, and his UFC wins have all kind of aged awfully. Zviad big step up in competition, though.
Zviad -250 was stupid 'GEORGIAN AUTOBET' kinda energy, though.
Bellator
Johnson should probably be -500 against Fedor if it's not a fix (Fix is like a 25% outcome tho)
Johnson should probably be -500 against Fedor if it's not a fix (Fix is like a 25% outcome tho)
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