Nathan Ruser Profile picture
Oct 23, 2021 37 tweets 29 min read Read on X
🧵Since Mid-October, the Burmese PDF and other armed opposition groups have gotten better at filming attacks and weapons captures.
I'll use this thread to share (and locate where possible) some of these claims and media.
Will also share any IED pics I can find. ImageImageImageImage
This video, via @KhitThitOfficial, shows KNLA troops attacking a Tatmadaw convoy on the Kamarmaung - Hpapun road in Karen (Kayin) State on Sept 30th. That day there were 6 clashes between the 402nd LIB and the KNLA's 102nd Battalion, killing 24 Tatmadaw troops.
/2
This video shows the Chinland Defense Force - Zophei and the Chin National Army dismantling and setting fire to an abandoned Tatmadaw outpost on Oct 4th. The base was evacuated by helicopter four days earlier.
facebook.com/watch/?v=38544…
Photos show the weapons carried.
/3 ImageImageImageImage
Not a very useful video (media teams attached to PDFs have it difficult and have to start somewhere) but this video captures a roadside IED attack by the Ayadaw Revolutionary Army against a Tatmadaw convoy in Ayadaw township, near the Monywa border.
Sound on.
/4
This video from around 7:30am on October 8th shows an explosion and damage to the Mandalay rail line. It was also damaged by an explosion on September 28th.
facebook.com/watch/?v=15550…
Location: google.com/maps/place/21%…
/5 ImageImage
An IED attack on a convoy on the Monywa-Pathein highway on October 9th. Not much to see in this video and reportedly only two troops injured.
Useful to show how much better the media teams have gotten since even early October.
facebook.com/watch/?v=94998…
/6 Image
On Oct 10th, the Pale People's Defense Force attacked Tatmadaw convoys with IEDs in two locations, killing a combined 18 troops (12 and 6, reportedly). Can't geolocate as I'm not sure what IED this video shows, but it is a very large bang.
/7
This video shows a combined force of the Karenni Army, the Karenni National Defense Force and the Karenni Generation-Z Strike Force (KGZ) patroling and clashing with Tatmadaw troops near the village of Htar Le (19.26, 97.22) in Hpruso township on Oct 9.
facebook.com/watch/?v=29565…
/8 ImageImageImage
A video showing a IED attack on a Tatmadaw convoy on the morning of Oct 12th. The attack took place between the villages of Saing Pyin Gyi and Let Pan (North).
facebook.com/watch/?v=67490…
Approx location:
google.com/maps/place/22%…
/9
This video's probably the first of the types of video I was referencing in the original tweet. A combined IED/Small-Arms attack on Tatmadaw troops in Pale township, near Wun Pyin village. There were 3 clashes in this township on Oct 11, killing 30+.
facebook.com/khitthitnews/v…
/10 ImageImage
I paused this thread, but cutting forward to today (Oct 23rd) and this video of an attack on a police checkpoint at Bagayar Junction, Yangon shows how far the media teams have gone. This attack killed one officer and injured another.
Location: google.com/maps/place/16%…
/11
It's taken a couple of days to geolocate, but on Saturday at around 5am, a Yangon PDF cell filmed an attack on a police checkpoint, one that killed four officers.
The video can be seen here: facebook.com/khitthitnews/v…
Location: google.com/maps/place/16%…
/12 ImageImage
On Oct 26th, the Palaw-township chapter of the PDF attacked a group of pro-Junta vigilante militiamen (Pyu Saw Htee) near Mee Kyaung Thaik village. They siezed around 8 assault rifles.
/13

cc @CalibreObscura ImageImageImageImage
@CalibreObscura On Oct 27th, troops with the Kokang EAO the MNDAA siezed more weapons from Tatmadaw forces deployed to the Mine Yaw near the city of Lashio.
cc @CalibreObscura facebook.com/pdfchannel2/po…
/14 Image
@CalibreObscura On October 28th, fighters with the Myaing PDF attacked a Tatmadaw convoy with IEDs & ambushed them with small arms fire. 5 Tatmadaw soldiers were killed with no injuries to the PDF.
For this attack the media team and the IED operators were perched in a tree. Pretty baller.
/15
@CalibreObscura This photo from Kawlin township shows some of the weapons siezed off Tatmadaw soldiers in the clashes in Kawlin over Oct 27/28 which reportedly killed 85+ soldiers. The caption suggests that only officers carry pistols in the field, meaning four officers were killed.
/16 Image
An undated photo of a member of the Chinland Defense Force (a PDF affiliate) with a DJI Mavic Drone. Drone photos similar to this have come out today showing Thantlang town on fire due to Tatmadaw artillery.
/17 ImageImage
This photo shows a home-made gun created by a member of the Yangon PDF's Urban Guerilla units.
/18

cc @CalibreObscura ImageImageImageImage
@CalibreObscura The leader of Mandalay's Zero Guerrilla Force holding an RPG. According to @Myanmar_Now_Eng, the ZGF has killed at least 40 Tatmadaw soldiers since the coup.
Weapons like RPGs are some of the most nifty in insurgencies. Also rifles and a speaker IED (?).
cc @CalibreObscura
/19 ImageImage
@CalibreObscura @Myanmar_Now_Eng More drones from Chin, in this case Thantlang. It's probably only a matter of time until other PDFs start using drones widely, especially useful for scoping out convoys.
/20 ImageImage
@CalibreObscura @Myanmar_Now_Eng On the morning of Nov 1st, the Myaing Villages Revolution Front (MRVF) attacked a Tatmadaw convoy with IEDs. One soldier was reportedly seriously injured.
The attack took place near Kan Gyi Taw village, but there are two of them in Myaing township.
/21
@CalibreObscura @Myanmar_Now_Eng Another homemade gun, belonging to a PDF member who was killed in Loikaw during September.
cc @NaviGoBoom @CalibreObscura
/22 Image
@CalibreObscura @Myanmar_Now_Eng @NaviGoBoom A landmine IED planted by the Tatmadaw in Demoso and removed/defused by the KNDF. Can't tell you anything more insightful about the mine, but hopefully smarter people can!
/23 ImageImageImage
@CalibreObscura @Myanmar_Now_Eng @NaviGoBoom A photo of a cool gun (@CalibreObscura??) on the personal Facebook page of a Karenni National Defense Force soldier. The caption suggests that it was 'donated', or acquired through donations.
Bonus pistol.
/24 ImageImage
This video from a MNDAA-affiliated news org shows an attacked Tatmadaw convoy in the vicinity of Pang Hseng (I believe near Hkaw-Lai - 24.056, 98.1). Reportedly one vehicle was completely destoyed, and I expect is what you see burning below the road. No word on casualties.
/25
Another member of the PDF (in this case the Tactical Demolition Team - I suspect in Yangon) posted a thank you for the donation message on Facebook, showing a US-made M4-A1 Carbine. h/t @nicholas6284
/26

cc @CalibreObscura Image
Homemade improvised mortars produced by a Sagaing-based PDF group. A photo shows them being loaded into a standard mortar. (Is that also a pressurised air-gun in the background of the 2nd pic?)
/27

cc @fredgrs @MarkHiznay ImageImageImageImage
@fredgrs @MarkHiznay Never have I ever seen a PVC mortar. From the same Sagaing PDF group. There are also pics of them crafting bullets and pistols, if anyone's interested I can share.
/28 Image
Midday today, a combined force of the Taze People Comrades and the Civil Armed Forces attacked Tatmadaw soldiers guarding In Koke Kar's Village Agriculture Office (22.989, 95.362) with an RPG and small arms fire. They claimed to have killed 4 Tatmadaw before retreating.
/29
The KNLA with a heckers sniper rifle in October. This photo was released with a post stating that they killed 271 Tatmadaw troops over October, in 275 separate clashes.
cc @CalibreObscura
/30 Image
Today, the Pale-PDF attacked a Tatmadaw convoy with six encamped IEDs. Two soldiers were reportedly killed. These photos show the scale of the explosions and the power to the IEDs that these groups are crafting.
/31 ImageImage
Yesterday the MFA-Tamu recieved info of a small Tatmadaw convoy traveling through Tamu, they set up a barricade, cleared the area of civilians and ambushed the convoy with mines and small arms. A Lt. Col. from the 89th-IB was killed and his possessions siezed (next tweet).
/32
Screencaps from the above video showing captured weaponry (an Ma-1 Mk.3 - left) from the killed Tatmadaw soldier, and the gear used by the MFA-Tamu. Also a map showing where the ambush took place (within 300m of the Indian border).
cc @CalibreObscura
/33 ImageImageImage
@CalibreObscura Last night, a combined force of local PDF groups and the KNLA (1at Brigade) detonated explosives on a railway bridge (No. 125) in Paung township between Yangon and Mawlamyine. This is a tactic often used in Upper Burma that is inceasingly coming to the lowlands.
/34 ImageImageImage
@CalibreObscura Yesterday, 5 Myaung-PDF groups attacked a Tatmadaw vehicle with mines. The video (facebook.com/tiger782/video…) is mostly not noteworthy, but a few frames show the size of the IED explosion. They reported that 10 troops (including a Major) were seriously injured.
/35 Image
The group also kind of apologises for the poor quality of the video ("စခကားနဲ့နီးကပ်သောကြောင့် videoကောင်းမွန်စွာ မရိုက်နိုင်ခဲ့တာပါ").
Today the Kalay-PDF group released a few official photos of their actions in the Township. One photo shows a PDF fighter with a scoped (sniper?) rifle. In additional to the usual M-A1 rifles.
cc @CalibreObscura
/36 ImageImage

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More from @Nrg8000

Feb 25
I've started reading Our Enemies Will Vanish, a masterful book on the Ukraine War by @yarotrof. Highly recommend it. It contains heaps of tidbits and insights that even someone who followed the invasion closely (i'll count myself) had no idea of.
I'll share some threaded here. Image
@yarotrof (get your hands on the book if you possible can, the tidbits here are just the tip of the iceberg, truly recommend reading the whole thing).
Firstly, this account of a meeting between Bill Burns and Putin months before the invasion where Putin cited US' impotence post Afghanistan Image
@yarotrof And that Ukraine's military preparations on the heel of US intel warnings were so secret that even Washington had no idea about them (to prevent info going from GUR > DC > Kyiv > Russian Fifth Column) Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 23, 2023
I was wanting to check if this IDF graphic was an approximation or a measured/to-scale diagram, so by tracing the various video walkthroughs, I was able to make my own NOT TO SCALE map, suggesting it was a pretty accurate representation but missing some 'branches' explored since.
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The most notable difference is a partially-blocked tunnel leading beyond where the walkthroughts turn left to go towards the spiral staircase. A seperate IDF video showed a 3rd entrance around 125m beyond that intersection, so I've assumed that's where it leads. Image
I've done my best geolocating that entrance by looking for a wide-ish street (with no road markings), that curves slightly to the right & goes downhill, and that has two visible small but distinct orange-roofed areas, along with some vegetation in a front yard. Decent match.
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Read 6 tweets
Nov 17, 2023
In Loikaw, a State capital in Myanmar, the district court has been overrun and destroyed by the KNDF and its armed resistance. After capturing the university on Wednesday, they are now barely 1km from the state capital building.
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The attack on Loikaw comes simultaneously as an attack on Moebye, another major town nearby where ~6 Junta posts have been captured. The KNDF has been spending the last week systematically eradicating junta presence from between Moebye and Loikaw, to stage for these attacks.
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The KNDF has now captured the Kayan Tharyar Crossroads junta outpost on the highway linking Loikaw & Shan State. The only outpost in the Loikaw surrounds still under junta control is the Kone Thar outpost which appears to have not been attacked since it's on an evacuation route.

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Read 4 tweets
Oct 20, 2023
😮‍💨
Looking at the 'splash' analysis is only relevant if the projectile had completed a nice parabolic trajectory & fired correctly.

It has next to no relevance in a hypothesis where there's a misfire and a mostly 'falling' projectile. Therefore, this isn't really helpful.
I have the utmost respect for Forensic Architecture, but when the analysis conducted is only valid in the scenario of one hypothesis and is invalid had the circumstances of another hypothesis happened, then it's not really useful in determining between them.
One quick look at the video of the missile that practically everyone has seen (and I'm sure FA has too) shows that this projectile wasn't on a clean parabolic trajectory and appears to be changing direction mid-air.
Read 15 tweets
Oct 19, 2023
This 'investigation' is flawed. It concludes that the al-Ahli hospital explosion was from an Iron-Dome intercepted rocket that fell/exploded.

This is demonstrably untrue as the Iron-Dome is a terminal-phase interceptor. It does not intercept in the launch phase.
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This is why it can be known as the 'Iron-Dome shield', each missile battery can defend against ~150km2 and targets the rockets towards the end of their trajectory, after the fuel has burnt off and the trajectory is more predictable.
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You can see this in this video, where the rockets are struck after reaching the peak of their trajectory and at the beginning of the descent-phase
Read 7 tweets
Oct 18, 2023
This thread is going around attempting to show 'proof' that Israel was responsible for the explosion at the Gazan hospital.

It does not, the video is from a totally different incident, hour after the hospital blast and shows a strike 1.5-4km away. I'll explain why.
First, I want to preface this analysis by pointing out that this account has been spreading disinformation and denialism about Ukraine for over a year. They have never acted in good faith, but for the people sharing his crap without knowing this I'll refute it at face value.

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The argument is immediately refutable since the same camera did film the explosion at the hospital, in footage youve probably seen, an hour earlier, at 6:59pm.
The time stamp in the video he shared is an hour later, at 7:59pm.
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Read 16 tweets

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