Trung Phan Profile picture
Oct 23, 2021 26 tweets 12 min read Read on X
Costco is the world's 3rd largest retailer by sales, notching $190B+ annually (behind Amazon, Walmart).

The company is all about "value" and uses psychological hacks in its business model and store design to get shoppers to spend dough.

Here are 14 of them 🧵
1/ At Costco, the membership is the core asset. Customers pay $60-120 per year for the right to buy comically large cans of tuna (AKA incredible value).

In its last reporting year, membership fees were 2% of revenue ($4B of $195B), but accounted for 70%+ of Costco's $5B profits.
2/ Membership psychology 1

In the early 2000s, Costco CEO Jim Sinegal told Jeff Bezos (who would roll out Prime) that "the membership fee is a one-time pain".

But the value of the concept is "reinforced every time customers sees 47" TVs that are $200 less than anyplace else."
3/ Membership psychology 2

Costco's 110m+ members are hit by the "Sunk Cost Fallacy": people will spend more time and money on something if they've already made an investment (to "get their money's worth").

With a 90% renewal rate, members are clearly OK with the deal.
4/ The 1st thing you see...

...entering a Costco are affordable electronics like laptops, phones and TVs (Sinegal wasn't joking).

Why? Marked-down TVs are a more salient reminder of value than marked-down food. Also, other prices in the store looks cheap vs. big-ticket items.
5/ Barebones appearance

Costco has 800+ warehouses (~70% in US). They all have minimalist interiors that screams "value":

◻️ exposed beams
◻️ concrete flooring
◻️ Used cardboard boxes as "checkout bags"

It feels like a wholesale venue filled w/ "deals" vs. standard retail.
6/ Boxes stacked to the ceiling

In retail, there's a concept known as "stack 'em high, watch 'em fly".

The psychology is that when a product is stacked to the sky, shoppers will believe that retailers desperately want to unload the inventory, so it's perceived as a deal.
7/ The deals *are* great

Costco aims for "pricing authority", which means consistently providing the most competitive prices across the best products.

It negotiates hard w/ suppliers and caps markups to 15% (often eating price increases instead of passing it to customers).
8/ Kirkland Signature

Costco's white-label arm does $40B+/yr (~25% sales) and is the epitome of value at cost.

It contracts the *same* suppliers it already stocks to make a competing Kirkland brand (w/ a 1% improvement on some metric). Costco's distribution is worth the trade.
9/ (No) paradox of choice

Costco simplifies decision-making with only 1-2 choices per product. In total, Costco stocks 3k SKUs vs. 30k SKUs for typical supermarkets.

The products mostly come in bulk (which communicates "value") and has "per unit" prices to calculate savings.
10/ Big shopping carts

Costco increased the size of its carts in the past few years. And, why not? More space encourages more shopping.

Nothing like the industrial orange trolley though.

Costco has normalized it for shoppers to show off outrageous hauls (AKA "Costco Tetris").
11/ Store layout

Costco has a racetrack design: Shelves are on the outside w/ low-tables in the centre (this allows visibility to the entire store to entice shoppers).

Like most grocers, staples (meats/dairy) are in the back so you have to pass the whole store to get there.
12/ Rotating goods

It's not easy to memorize product locations, though.

There is no signage. And Costco regularly moves necessities -- which they call triggers (e.g., lightbulbs, paper towels) -- around the store.

These moves encourage movement and people to "treasure hunt".
13/ Samples

This is obviously not exclusive to Costco, but no place is better known for its near limitless free samples.

The psychology is simple: reciprocity (people are compelled to buy a product in *return* for receiving something for free).
14/ Long checkout lines

While Costco has introduced self-checkout, it's largely lacking in express checkouts.

Psychologically, shoppers don't want to wait in a long line for a single jug of milk. They'll want to make the wait worth it with a decent-sized shop.
15/ Cheap food on exit

Finally, Costco's $1.50 hot dog after the checkout. Like $5 rotisserie chickens, the hot dog is a loss leader for Costco.

Its price is unchanged since 1985 and sears value into people's brain as they leave. It also led to history's greatest headline ever:
16/ If you enjoyed that, I write threads breaking down tech and business 1-2x a week.

Def follow @TrungTPhan to catch them in your feed.

This Costco thread is a follow up to this IKEA thread:
17/ I discuss interesting topics like this once a week (with a healthy dose of dumb jokes) on the Not Investment Advice (NIA) podcast.

Check it out: linktr.ee/notinvestmenta…
19/ My best Costco tweet before this thread
20/ Jim Sinegal on why Costco always passes the savings onto customers.

🔗 mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-…
21/ Apparently, these are the secrets behind Costco price-ending digits:

◻️ .99 = full price
◻️ .97 = store manager deal
◻️ .79 or .49 = manufacturer deal (trial run)
◻️ .00 or .88 or has an * = steep manager discount to unload inventory (discontinuing product)
22/ Finally, here is a glorious sh*tpost thread on Costco's "other" hacks (it's hysterical)
23/ *ADDENDUM: Also worth adding that Costco operates 600+ gas stations that offer low "member-only" prices (another great loss leader along with rotisserie chickens and hot dogs)
24/ One more note: Costco is the largest wine seller in America (it does $4B+ in alcohol sales, with wine making up half of that)

It regularly marks wine down 10-20% vs. competitors.

🔗 buzzfeed.com/amphtml/hannah…
25/ Some people asked about an Amazon Prime thread. Actually did one here:

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More from @TrungTPhan

Jan 16
Matt Damon and Ben Affleck on Rogan taking about how Netflix has changed filmmaking.

A major considerations is dealing with distracted viewers. To keep them tuned in, “you re-iterate the plot 3-4x in the dialogue because people are on their phones.”

Then, in action films, you change the ordering of climatic fights.

In traditional action films, you’d have “three set pieces” in every act (I, II, III) and each would “ramp up” (spend the big money on third set piece).

But streaming has to hook viewers within 5 minute, so the incentive is to put a major battle or action sequence much earlier.

Also, the directors have less incentive to make a film look great because so many people watch on laptops and phones.

They do say that streaming allows for more bets on risky projects since the theatre economics are geared towards IP, sequels and super-heroes.

Example: an independent film with a $25m budget would spend $25m on marketing (1:1 ratio). But since it splits box office with the theatre, the film needs to make $100m (1/2 of which is $50m) just to break even.

They’re realistic about the state of film and call it a supply-demand issue. If the demand is for at-home viewing (eg. Netflix 300m+ subs), then filmmaking approach will change to feed the algo.

When there’s demand for theatre, Damon will go team up with Christopher Nolan to make “The Odyssey”.
A similar dynamic is happening to streaming TV shows. The incentives for story arc, dialogue and character types warped thr medium.

I explain it more here: readtrung.com/p/the-case-aga…
Damon cooks.

Here is full Rogan: youtu.be/AVEZBy1uAk8?si…

Here is Hot Ones: youtu.be/yaXma6K9mzo?si… x.com/trungtphan/sta…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 15
The Economist has a great piece on strategy sportsbetting apps use to throttle smart bettors:

▫️Skilled players are “sharps” and given “stake restrictions” if they play too well (bets are capped).

▫️Rest of players called “Square”.

▫️In 2025, 4.3% of active UK accounts had a “stake factor” below the maximum bet allowance of 100%.

▫️Sportsbook will take bets with a profit margin as low as 4.5%.

▫️If they are able to do good “player-profiling” and keep the “sharps” from playing, the profit margin can reach 10-20%.

▫️As important as keeping out “sharps” is hooking “whales”, the deep-pocketed players that are willing to keep playing (and losing) large sums.

▫️Some “whales” are actually “sharps” in disguise, though. They’ll lose a bunch of bets to lull the sportsbook then put down a massive bet when they have an edge.

▫️While there is a risk of a “whale” being a “sharp”, the value of a real “whale” is so high that sportsbook will take the risk

▫️“In March 2024 PointsBet, raised its share of online sports-gambling revenue in New Jersey from 11% to 24% after wooing a single cash-spouting customer away from DraftKings.” (I can confirm that this wasn’t me).

▫️How sportsbook profile players:

> Playing on Mobile is a good sign (where majority of people play)
> Playing on PCs is a bad sign (it’s easier to compare odds and run models)
> E-wallets are a red flag (sportsbooks prefer debit direct deposit that can attach a player to a single account; e-wallet is more anonymized and players can move cash between sportsbook more quickly to shop for the best odds)
> Women bettors are a red flag (most bettors are men and “sharps” often use women to place bets)

▫️First wagers are a major tells (typical bettors go after top leagues — NFL, NBA, EPL — and do so near the start of the game).

▫️Popular bets for “squares”: who will win, scoring margins and how star player will perform (also, they love multi-leg parlays).

▫️“Sharps” go after less popular leagues and place bets as soon as odds are published, when they are most mispriced. They also go after less popular bets such as “pts in Q3” or stats from a random player (“Sharps” rarely do parlays and don’t withdrawal winnings often).

▫️One gambling consultant tells The Economist that “By the time a customer places his first bet, [sportsbooks] are 80-90% certain they know the lifetime value of the account.”

▫️”Sportsbooks look at a player’s ‘closing-line value’ — a measure that compares the odds at which he bets with those available right before a match begins. If it is consistently ahead of the market over his first ten wagers, he is highly likely to beat the book in the long run.”

▫️Sportsbook mathematically monitor players and creates a new risk score every 6-8 hours (risk score = estimate of probability that customers will wind up unprofitable).

▫️E-wallet users, women and bets over $100 are flagged. These suspicious bettors are given 30% of maximum bet (and proven sharps only allowed 1%).

▫️High-skilled players will often get a “beard” to bet on their behalf. Most sportsbooks ban this practice but it is widespread.

▫️Safest “beards” are close friends and relatives because you can mostly rely on them to pay out any winnings. The “beards” try to look like degens (playing at 3am, bet non-stop and doing ridiculous parlays) before placing a winning bet.

▫️The most effective strategy for “sharps” is “whale-flipping”. Find a losing gambler, then ask to put a (likely) large winning bet amongst their pool of guaranteed losers.

▫️Once “sharps” max out the people they can use as “beards”, they tap professional networks called “movers”. These “movers” employ a bunch of “mules” who can put down bets on the behalf of the network. Low-end movers charge 10-20% while high-end movers charge 50% of winnings.

***

Lots other great details here: economist.com/christmas-spec…Image
On a related note, I wrote on how slot machines make $10B+ a year in Las Vegas (~70% of all casino gaming revenue).

The history, psychology and design of the device…which went from a throwaway game to the industry’s “cash cow” and “gambling’s crack cocaine.”readtrung.com/p/the-ludicrou…
Read 4 tweets
Nov 19, 2025
Satya Nadella on why Microsoft Excel has been so durable after 40 years:

> the power of lists and tables
> the malleability of the software (“a blinking canvas”)
> spreadsheet software is Turing complete (“I can make it do everything”)
> it’s the world’s most approachable programming environment (“you get into it without even thinking your programming”)
fantastic pod ep: Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 28, 2025
The invention of bánh mì is a combination of climate, trade and urban layout of Saigon in late-19th century designed by French colonist.

When the French captured the area in 1859, most economic activity in the region took place along the Saigon river.

The population built makeshift homes tightly bundled by the river banks. Outgrowth from this eventually lead to narrow alleyways between many buildings that is trademark of the city (the Khmer named the region Prey Nokor then French renamed it Saigon and then it was renamed to Ho Chi Minh City in 1976 after end of Vietnam War).

Over decades, the French created European street grids and built wide Paris-type boulevards in the city to funnel commerce to larger markets (also make the city easier to administer).

It was at these markets that French baguettes were introduced and traded.

Bánh mì bread is known for being flaky and crispy on the outside while fluffier on inside (so god damn good).

Two features of Saigon helped create this texture:

▫️Climate: The heat and humidity in Southeast Asia leads dough to ferment faster, which creates air pockets in bread (light and fluffy).

▫️Ingredient: Wide availability of rice meant locals added rice flour to wheat flour imports (which were quite expensive). Rice flour is more resistant to moisture and creates a drier, crispier crust.

Fast forward to the 1930s: the French-designed street layout is largely complete. Now, the city centre has wide boulevards intersected by countless narrow alleyways.

The design was ideal for street vendor carts. These businesses were inspired by shophosue of colonial architecture to sell all types of goods as chaotic traffic rushed by.

Vietnam has some of the most slapping rice and soup dishes, but many people on the move in the mornings wanted something more portable and edible by hand.

Bánh mì was traditionally upper class fare but it met the need for on-the-go food.

Just fill the bread with some Vietnamese ingredients (braised pork, pickled vegetable, Vietnamese coriander, chilies) along with French goodies (pate).

Pair it with cà phê sữa đá (aka coffee with condensed milk aka caffeinated crack) and you’re laughing.Image
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Haven’t lived in Saigon for 10+ years but ate a banh mi every other day when I did.

While there, I also sold a comedy script to Fox (pitch: “The Fugitive meets Harold & Kumar set in Southeast Asia”).

It never got made but fun story to retell: readtrung.com/p/im-making-a-…
Classic episode Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 26, 2025
the most underrated winner of the AI boom is the 15,000 person Caribbean island of Anguilla (which has a GDP of ~$320m) Image
The research team is happy to announce that we’ve played our part contributing to Anguilla’s windfall.

We also paid $99 to GoDaddy to see if we could secure one more .AI domain. Bearly.AIImage
Polynesian island Tuvalu has an even smaller population (10,000)!!
Read 4 tweets
Jun 8, 2025
someone used Veo3 to make Moses as a YouTuber live-streaming the Exodus
accent does change at end: reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/s/bO…Image
On-demand history vids like this in few years with Google Veo very plausible.

I previously wrote on YouTube as greatest athletics learning machine ever…could get souped up: readtrung.com/p/youtube-the-…
Read 4 tweets

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