Thread by @AdityaTodmal

🧵*Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 28th Oct Expiry*

To form a view, let's have a look at both:
1. Technicals
2. Data

Also, 3 strategies to deploy for:
1. Aggressive Traders
2. Moderate Risk Traders
3. Low-Risk Traders

Nifty has been

1. Falling for the last 4 days so the probability of a short-covering rally is high.

2. PCR is 0.8 which is pretty low.

3. Formed a double bottom pattern so can trade on breakout of high.

4. Reliance and ICICI results are very good.

Expecting to help BN.

1. Technicals

Let's start with technicals in Bank Nifty. We'll look at -
1. Daily charts.
2. Hourly / 60 min charts.
3. 15 min charts.

1. Daily - Bank Nifty has broken the last 4-day range so as per the breakout expecting a good upmove to continue if Friday high is taken out.

2. Hourly / 60 min charts.

On hourly charts, we have a bullish structure so we will avoid selling calls aggressively unless we trade below 39300.

Should look for the first hour range on Monday and can trade that breakout either side as I am expecting a good gap up due to ICICI.

3. 15 min charts.

1. If we trade below 40000, can sell strangles of 39000 and below puts and 40600 and above calls.

2. Below 39300 can sell calls aggressively.

3. In case of a gap up tomorrow we will see how price action takes place and then take a trade.

Option chain data.

Shows huge call writing at 40500 levels. If Bank Nifty trades below 40000, can sell 41000 as 40500 will be even harder to break.

In case of a big gap up and if there is a good unwinding of calls taking place, can look for more bullish opportunities.

Strategies to deploy?

1. Aggressive Traders

If there's a gap up above 40590, Can sell put options of 39700, and if 40150 breaks can sell calls above 40600 to manage.

If premiums have been reduced then buy 35000 puts along with this to have the same ROI.

ROI is around 2.2%.

2. Moderate Risk Traders

Can sell strangles of 39200 and 42100 & try to manage.

ROI is approximately 1.4%.

3. Low-Risk Traders

Can sell strangles of 38500 and 42400. Fetches you approximately 0.75% ROI.

You guys should be targeting 2% per month and playing far away from spot levels of BNF.

4 expires per month to make 0.50%.