Nice little Sunday? $BBBY & $HD? what about 🧥? Here’s a #chartstravaganza on why you should check out $SDRY.LN fresh lineup & stock. Let’s shop!
1/ there’s perhaps no better recovery play. Valuation relative to growth expectations make it a coiled spring.
2/ Investors continue to question the viability of Superdry'a brand due to prior management errors and Covid-19.. $SDRY.LN stock is down -87% since 2018, significantly underperforming the FTSE250
3/ In any hands other than the father of the brand, we'd agree with the skeptics. But Julian doggedly disagrees with skeptics, and has been putting his money where his mouth is - with recent purchases this week.
4/ Julian has assembled a world class team to turn this tanker, with great vendor relationships and less logos- allowing them to SIGNIFICANTLY upgrade quality while making it a new benchmark for sustainability (at same gross profit margin)
5/ This massive upgrade needs to be seen to be believed, which unfortunately not many have had a chance to do given the number of store days lost in the most recent year.
6/ To drive awareness of the product changes, $SDRY.LN is building a social media influencer strategy with a hierarchy of talent types to better target specific consumer profiles. High performing influencers receive commissions which fosters skin-in-the-game.
7/ The pinnacle of SDRY's influencers at the moment are Neymar Jr. @neymarjr leading organic cotton campaign.
8/ And like his father, David, @brooklynbeckham will be the face of SDRY's sustainability campaign - lending some credibility to Julian’s goal of being “the most sustainable listed global fashion brand on the planet by 2030”
9/ the digital top funnel efforts have allowed the company to test 4K SKUs annually and allow the digital impulse to scientifically drive the store buys. This is helping it evolve into a faster fashion brand.
10/ the team is being led by Chairman Peter Sjölander, former CEO of Helly Hansen that doubled revenues & sold to Canadian Tire for 20x EBITDA. His experience leading e-commerce turnarounds should help drive growth.
11/ Dunkerton's ownership of 20.3%, growing by the week, ensures strong alignment w/ major skin in the game. If you want more, check out clips from a chat earlier this year, the passion & conviction are clear w/ material upside.
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If you have an interest in container shipping / freight rates, let me know what you think here. We're doing work on the short side to protect our transport-exposed positions (mostly $BOL.FP) and are looking at timing. Here's where the debate stands - would love input. 🧵
1/ order book for new container ships is massive- 23% of current fleet, while not a peak from % perspective, it means a tremendous amount of new capacity coming online in 23 & 24. In fact, notional capacity added in 2023-2024 will be the same as 2007-2008, which was no bueno.
2/ freight forwarders saying the current very high rates last longer. We believe that's driven by the # of ships waiting to dock at port given the capacity constraints at ports (particularly long beach / LA). Here's # of ships standing by- about 1 month of full offload capacity.
There are a LOT of things on sale right now, $AML.LN is in our top 5 & agnostic to market rotations occurring. What other co. profit warns & goes up (yesterday) because it's so washed out? Let’s take a (fast) lap 🏎🏁
Aston Martin mini-thesis🧵
1/ It's not easy to revive a brand, but it helps if you have a century of performance & global awareness. But after an epic channel stuffing IPO collapsed shortly after, too many 🇬🇧 investors have been burned by 007's preferred wheels.
2/ Step 1 was a recapitalization to save it from an... 8th (‼️) lifetime bankruptcy. Now with ~£0.5B cash on the BS at YE21, w/ cash burn inflecting close to breakeven, the co. has plenty of room to deliver the turnaround. But still... the history has created a LOT of skeptics.
Going to weigh in on $TWTR only because I love pain.
1/ Today's reaction on $TWTR reminds me a lot of May 6, 2014. I was in Detroit. $FCAU unveiled its ambition to grow volumes from 4.4 million to 7 million. The stock closed down 11.7%. Sergio bought shares that day.
2/ Investors associated the stock reaction with a communication & management failure- which was really lost on me. After being "burned," no buy-siders bothered to attend the late day "chat" with Sergio... it was only that skeleton crew in the distance
3/ So me and 4-5 other lucky people had unfettered access to Sergio for a couple hours. In the moth-balled board room, he opened by lighting a cigarette & asked, "so what did you not like about the plan?" Almost exactly like this:
1 / $VIV.FP buying back ~1.5% shares / week at a stub enterprise value of... 0. In next 2 months, self-buyout via ORPA should launch.
2/ Then $BOL.FP trades for less than the value of its $UMG shares. So basically in 2 months, we will own businesses that generate ~€1.4 billion of EBIT/FCF for.... free... while the share count rapidly shrinks.
3/ Only $VIV.FP buying shares now, but would expect $BOL.FP to start taking out small minority companies with its cleaner balance sheet in the near-term. Especially given the $VIV.FP take-out is largely self-financed...
1/ the next big trade seems almost too obvious that it’s going to be a boring company / value revival. I’ve been debating with friends (@GreenhavenRoad@AboveAvgOdds@LaughingH20Cap@Dan_Roller@macrotwain) over the past couple of days, and most are skeptical, so here’s my case.
2a/ when I say value, I’m using @mjmauboussin's term, paying less than what a co. is worth, which I think >90% of investors still do. The trick is, is it worth less than a fair value in ‘20, ‘22, or ‘25-26 value, as many are justifying today?