1/6
Very good article on the benefits of implementing Chinese property taxes and the difficulties Beijing faces in doing so: "A property tax could alter China’s economic model, reshaping government revenue streams from land sales to taxes."

ft.com/content/d4b2c1…
2/6
The article however cites proponents of the tax as arguing among other things that a tax could also "help dent the appeal of property investment, redirecting private capital towards sectors such as high-tech exports and services that boost domestic consumption."
3/6
I disagree. Investment flows into non-productive investment in property and infrastructure don't detract from capital available for productive investment. The whole point of investment in property and infrastructure has been to absorb savings that can't otherwise be utilized.
4/6
That is why reducing the former will not increase the latter. On the contrary, China has to export a substantial portion of its excess savings through direct and indirect reserve accumulation, even though the returns in RMB terms have been very low or negative for years.
5/6
If instead of exporting the savings they could have invested productively in domestic projects, they would have gladly done so.

If investment in property declines, in other words, the result will not be an increase in investment in more productive parts of the economy.
6/6
It will be either an increase in other forms of non-productive investment (mainly infrastructure), a greater trade surplus, or slower growth. These are the only options.
1/3
Hu Xijin tells readers of Global Times that they must calm down when considering the impact of a property tax, and then adds: "As for young people who do not own their own apartment, they should still buy one as planned."

globaltimes.cn/page/202110/12…
2/3
"There is no problem in waiting for a while to observe trends," he continues, "but there is no need to wait until house prices fall off a cliff due to the levying of property tax. I can say with certainty that such a scenario will never happen."
3/3
And finally, he proposes, "Our country will not allow such a situation to occur, and will not introduce radical tax reforms that could lead to the 'collapse' of the housing market."

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More from @michaelxpettis

26 Oct
1/7
For years I’ve been arguing (against most analysts focusing on China, I should add) that much of the GDP “growth” generated by Chinese investment in property and infrastructure should not be considered part of China’s GDP on a basis comparable to...

caixinglobal.com/2021-10-25/edi…
2/7
that of other countries. It was not real economic growth so much as residual activity designed to bridge the gap between real economic growth and the politically optimal GDP growth target. On a comparable basis, I argued, China's GDP growth was probably closer to 3%.
3/7
It now seems, at least within China, that this is becoming a consensus view. According to yesterday's Caixin editorial, “at present, China is facing inadequate investment, weak consumption, a complicated external environment and substantial downward pressure on its economy."
Read 7 tweets
25 Oct
1/3
Reports of a new possible Covid outbreak in China, and the rapid stepping up of control measures, make this article in today's WSJ especially interesting: "Life in the New York City area might be transitioning into a phase in which the...

wsj.com/articles/new-y… via @WSJ
2/3
virus is a present but diminished danger for most people, some epidemiologists and doctors say." It goes on to claim that "many public-health experts expect the world will be living with Covid-19 for the long haul". This implies that we'll have to learn to accommodate Covid.
3/3
This might make a difficult transition for those of us living in countries where authorities have bet heavily on the elimination of Covid-19. I guess the nature of the transition will depend on how flexible they are in their willingness and ability to switch strategies.
Read 4 tweets
25 Oct
1/10
With so much domestic publicity about pilot property tax reform programs, Beijing will lose a great deal of credibility if it doesn't begin to impose meaningful property taxes soon.

global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202110/25/WS…
2/10
According to the chief economist of a Chinese think tank, "The aim of the pilot program is not to curb the growth of the real estate market, but to help build a long-term mechanism that is conducive to the market's healthy development."
3/10
He goes on to say that "the program will reduce vacancy rates, improve land use efficiency and make housing more affordable and accessible in the long run".
Read 11 tweets
22 Oct
1/5
Good piece. We keep hearing that growth in China is collapsing, but this perception is based on unrealistically high expectations, which were themselves based on a misunderstanding of how China's growth model works.
barrons.com/articles/wall-… via @BarronsOnline
2/5
Relatively strong underlying growth this year – mostly a reaction to last year's contraction – gave Beijing a one-off chance to reverse some of last year's surge in the most debt-intensive components of Chinese growth. Last year they needed that surge to meet growth targets.
3/5
But this year they clearly don't. That's why it shouldn't be such a surprise that they have taken advantage to cut back sharply on those components, especially given that they will probably easily meet their job-creation target for the year.
Read 5 tweets
22 Oct
1/4
A lot of people are asking if Beijing is starting to pull back on attempts to suppress property-sector excesses. I don't know if they're already doing so, but if they aren't, they'll probably have to soon enough.
2/4
That's because if there is a substantial contraction in the property sector, which we're all expecting, Beijing then has only three paths it can follow over the short term. First, regulators can try to revive the property sector.
3/4
Second, they can accelerate local government infrastructure spending to replace property-sector activity. And third, they can accept a much lower growth rate.
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
1/10
Demand for USD bonds issued by the Chinese government was very strong, and Lexington sees this as evidence that investors are ignoring or discounting domestic financial turmoil in China's property markets.
ft.com/content/677723…
2/10
I don't think this is the right way to look at it. It makes more sense to argue that the nature of China’s domestic problems are more likely to result in the near term in greater inflows, and so China's domestic problems in fact strengthen China's external position.
3/10
This may seem surprising at first, but it is why for the past two years even as debt problems have deteriorated I have nonetheless been telling my clients not just to buy USD bonds issued by the Chinese government but, even better, to buy RMB bonds. The currency...
Read 10 tweets

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