Haiku thread follows.

If a pandemic caused by a new bat-derived sars-like virus breaks out in a city and

The city has no similar viruses in its local bats and

Has no sars-like antibodies in its people and

Has no infected animals in its markets and...

1/10
Sars like viruses have leaked at least four times from laboratories and

The city has a laboratory studying bat-borne sars-like viruses and

That laboratory has published more papers on sars-like viruses than any other and...

2/10
Has the world’s largest collection of bat-borne coronaviruses and

Took its database offline and

This included a sars-like coronavirus very closely related to the pandemic virus and

That virus was collected on one of at least 7 visits to a mine 1885km away by road and...

3/10
That mine is now off limits to outsiders and heavily guarded and

3 men died after becoming infected at that site from a suspected sars-like infection and

The laboratory has omitted the connection to that outbreak in publications and...

4/10
It has changed the name of a bat borne virus it collected there and

Has misled the world about when it sequenced the genome of that virus and

Did not publish details of eight other viruses from the same site for 11 months and...

5/10
Has done experiments to make chimeric sars-like viruses and

Those experiments leave no trace of genetic engineering and

It has tested those chimeric viruses in human airway epithelial cells and

Has tested those chimeric viruses in humanised mice and...

6/10
It has done these experiments at lower biosafety levels (BSL-2 and BSL-3) and

Has been criticised for poor laboratory safety standards and

Has patented devices for keeping bats in the lab and

Has patented devices for treating bat-bite injuries and...

7/10
Has previously worked on the insertion of furin cleavage sites into MERS-like coronaviruses and

No other sars-like virus has been found with a S1/S2 furin cleavage site and

The lab has recently applied for grants to insert furin cleavage sites into sars-like viruses and

8/10
The government of that country has strongly resisted a full investigation and

Has championed an implausible explanation based on imported frozen food and

Has frustrated the attempts of outsiders to seek relevant information...

9/10
Then

It is plausible that pandemic may have begun with a lab leak or research-related accident.

10/10
Viral: The Search for the #OriginOfCovid arrives three weeks from today.

Pre-order it now: amzn.to/3hfGmyn

Or stay updated by liking its Facebook page: facebook.com/authormattridl…

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More from @mattwridley

16 Oct
China now burns half the world’s coal.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, China is tripling its capacity to make fuel out of coal, about the most carbon-intensive process anybody can imagine. spectator.co.uk/article/china-…
But for reasons that are not clear, many western environmentalists are mad keen on China, despite its gargantuan appetite for coal, and won’t hear a word against the regime. spectator.co.uk/article/china-…
Sign up to receive the no-paywall version of this article: mattridley.co.uk/newsletter
Read 4 tweets
7 Oct
Remember when taking the lab leak theory seriously was "misinformation"?
Pre-order Viral (US): amzn.to/3hfGmyn
Like or follow its new Facebook page: facebook.com/originofcovid
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep
Two years ago today, on 12 September 2019,

as @C_Small_ discovered,

the Wuhan Institute of Virology took its bat and rodent pathogen database,

with 22,000 specimens and sequences,

offline in the early hours of the morning.

Why? ...
...The explanation that Shi Zhengli gave, that there had been hacking attempts, makes no sense.

Why would there be before the pandemic?

And sharing the data with a secure source overseas to protect against it being altered would render hacking futile...
...The fact sheet describing the database was not taken down but it was edited, on or before 30 December, to change the key words, and alter some terms from "wildlife" to "bat and rodent".

Why?...
Read 9 tweets
28 Aug
Intelligence report:

1. Not a bioweapon
2. Chinese officials had no foreknowledge.
3. China 'continues to hinder the global investigation, resist sharing information and blame other countries'.
4. Low confidence that probably not genetic engineering

dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
5. Reports only one 'moderate confidence' assessment: one agency thinks it was a lab leak. FBI?
6. Four 'elements' have 'low confidence' that it was a natural exposure.
7. Three 'elements' unable to decide.
8. Emphasises the need for more information on the early cases.
This declassified assessment therefore solves nothing, adds little but reinforces the need to take both natural-origin and lab-leak theories seriously, to investigate them properly and to act as if both could happen again.
Read 4 tweets
29 Jun
A thread on the misuse of the word "virulent".

I'm seeing articles saying that the delta variant is more virulent.

eg: "citing the spread of the more virulent Delta coronavirus variant in the United Kingdom"

nytimes.com/2021/06/28/wor…
Earlier in the year the same was said about the alpha (Kent) variant, that it was more "virulent".

That was untrue.

Virulent means "harmful", not "infectious".
“The suggestion that the Indian variant is more pathogenic needs to be taken with a big dose of salt. The same was initially suggested for the Kent variant but was later shown not to be true." Prof Ian Jones.

sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reactio…
Read 12 tweets
2 Jun
1/ When analysing the actions of Shi Zhengli, Peter Daszak, Kristian Andersen and others who insisted on shutting down doubts about the lab leak origin of SARS-CoV-2 in Jan and Feb 2020, it's worth remembering that at that stage it looked likely to be a minor Chinese epidemic.
2/ Almost nobody expected that millions would die, the entire world would be convulsed and therefore that every detailed action by scientists would later come under intense scrutiny.
3/ Thus you might expect to get away with publishing the genome of a bat virus without mentioning its origin, or the fact that you are renaming it without saying so, or the fact that three people died of a mystery viral pneumonia caught at the site.
Read 7 tweets

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