Thread by @LawrenceGilder

There are a lot of questions regarding the current fall in cases that we are witnessing and whether it is a true representation of what is happening in the UK.

I welcome any sort of fall in cases, but I do have to be skeptical with the data and not celebrate too early.

[1/10]

Today we saw a massive fall, from 49,156 cases to 36,567 within a week (-25.61%), however, we are missing Welsh data today.

To make a fair comparison, I will remove Wales' cases last week so it is 42,758 last week (-14.48%)

[2/10]

As we all may know, it is the October half-term, which means it is likely that some (not all) children would not be testing this weekend as they are now off school.

This will also have the added effect that they won't be mixing as often, reducing transmission.

[3/10]

Looking at England only data, we can see in the 0-9 and the 10-19 age groups that cases have dramatically dropped since the start of the half-term. The 20-29 and 30-39 age groups also have dropped but at a slightly lower rate.

[4/10]

For groups 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70-79, a similar pattern emerges. We can see that for all age groups, there is a very sudden and quite unexpected drop.

[5/10]

The ZOE COVID Symptom Study app has been great throughout the pandemic at tracking the trend of the virus, however, we are seeing a larger discrepancy between official figures and the estimates, likely caused by the reduced testing than before.

[6/10]

Yesterday alone saw a drop of around 250,000 lateral flow tests in England, 36% lower than a week previous, which would link up to why we have seen such a sudden drop in cases alongside the timing around the half-term break. (though it's only one day of data)

[7/10]

It is possible that vaccination in the younger generation plus the boosters in the older generations are now having an impact, but given the timing and the type of drop in the age groups, I personally feel like it is a testing situation.

[8/10]

I will say however, I am not completely ruling out that this is a legitimate fall in cases, I could be completely wrong and I will hold my hands up if that's the case, but it all seems too coincidental for all of it to happen right on this half-term break.

[9/10]

This is my view on the situation, I welcome any other points of view because the discussion is important. I'm sure there are things I may not have taken into account which could have a significant impact.

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