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Rob Lee Profile picture
@RALee85
Oct 26, 2021 • 761 tweets • >60 min read • Read on X
The Ukrainian MoD says they struck a D-30 howitzer in the Donbas with a Turkish TB2 UCAV after two Ukrainian servicemen were wounded by artillery fire. This would be the first such use of TB2 to conduct strikes in the Donbas.
facebook.com/watch/?v=46761…
DNR rebels claim that Ukraine conducted another UAV attack on an oil facility in Donetsk this morning though they claim it didn't do any damage. 2/
ria.ru/20211027/nefte…
Dmitry Peskov said Turkey's deliveries of TB2 UCAVs to Ukraine could potentially destabilize the situation along the line of contract "this does not contribute to settling this intra-Ukrainian problem." 3/
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The Head of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrei Kartapolov said "The use of a Bayraktar unmanned aerial vehicle by the Ukrainian military (as announced by the Ukrainian General Staff) will further escalate the conflict inside Ukraine," 4/
tass.com/world/1354917 Image
Video reportedly showing T-80U tanks from the 4th Tank Division based outside of Moscow passing through Kursk near the border with Ukraine. Possibly a response to Ukraine's use of TB2 UCAVs and escalation of fighting in the Donbas. 5/
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Video reportedly of the Central Military District’s 448th Missile Brigade’s Iskander-M missile systems outside of Bryansk near the border with Ukraine from October 27th. 7/
t.me/milinfolive/72…
Video of Russian armor reportedly in Bryansk. 8/
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Some old T-72B tanks, some with ATGM/loitering munition roof screens, on the move reportedly in Krasnodar. 11/
t.me/milinfolive/72… Image
"A renewed buildup of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border has raised concern among some officials in the United States and Europe who are tracking what they consider irregular movements of equipment and personnel on Russia’s western flank." 12/
washingtonpost.com/world/russian-… Image
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Ukraine's Defence Intelligence said they haven't recorded any additional transfer of Russian troops or equipment near their borders. They suggested these movements are normal after training exercises. 14/
mil.gov.ua/news/2021/11/0…
Hard to make out too many specifics but clearly plenty of tanks, Msta-S/2S3 Akatsiya 152mm artillery, and BMPs in these photos. 15/
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General Mark Milley described Russia's movement of forces near Ukraine as "significant" but "nothing overtly aggressive." "So, what does this mean? We don't know yet," Milley said. "But we're continuing to monitor with all of our capabilities." 20/
voanews.com/a/us-not-yet-a… Image
CNN reports CIA Director Bill Burns was sent to Moscow this week to discuss Russia's military activities near the border with Ukraine, and "the Biden administration is more concerned than it was in the spring that Russia could launch an invasion," 21/
cnn.com/2021/11/05/pol… Image
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov confirms that Russian officials discussed Ukraine with Bill Burns. 22/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
More than a 1k crews with T-72B3 tanks from the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division completed a verification test with live-firing in Voronezh. 23/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
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Ukrainian soldiers watching the feed from the TB2 strike on the D-30 howitzer in the Donbas. 25/
t.me/milinfolive/72…
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Deleted my previous tweet. If this is the Maslovka in Voronezh (not Belgorod as I posted before), this is ~130km from the border with Ukraine. These are the T-80U tanks from the 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank Division based in Moscow. 27/
“We’re concerned by reports of unusual Russian military activity near Ukraine,” Blinken said at the conclusion of a U.S.-Ukraine strategic dialogue meeting. “Any escalatory or aggressive actions would be of grave concern to the United States.” 28/
apnews.com/article/willia… Image
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Bloomberg reports that the US has told EU allies that "Russia may be weighing a potential invasion of Ukraine". Worth noting that "invasion" could mean an attempt at compellence, an attempt to seize land, or pursuit of more ambitious objectives. 30/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Something to keep in mind: the Biden administration would clearly cancel any in-person meeting with Putin if Russia significantly escalates in Ukraine before then. That will play a role in Moscow's use-of-force calculus. 31/
One thing to note: US officials said Russia had ~80k troops near Ukraine in the spring, but Ukrainian officials said the figure was between 110-120k. So I would interpret the 90k figure from Ukrainian officials as *fewer* Russian troops are there now. 32/
nytimes.com/2021/11/10/us/… Image
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Bloomberg reports that Putin has told Western leaders that Russia won't tolerate creeping expansion by their armed forces into Ukraine and that some European governments aren't as sure as the US that an invasion is an imminent threat. 34/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… ImageImage
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said there are nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers near Ukraine's border and that Western countries had shared information about active Russian troop movements with Kyiv." 35/
reuters.com/world/europe/u… Image
There is clearly non-public stuff going on, but just because the current activity is less public than in the spring doesn't mean the intentions are necessarily different. If Washington and Kyiv can see this, it could still be about coercion. 36/
politico.com/news/2021/11/1… Image
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Putin's response when asked about Ukraine. He ended his answer with "Concurrently they arranged unscheduled drills in the Black Sea. There is an impression that they do not want to let us relax. Well, they should know that we do not relax anyway." 38/
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside… ImageImage
"Western intelligence suggests a 'high probability of destabilization' of Ukraine by Russia as soon as this winter". Ukraine estimates Russia has 92k ground troops (presumably including VDV, naval infantry, etc.) and 114k total near Ukraine's borders. 39/
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Another video of T-80U tanks from the 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank Division as well as Msta-S howitzers in Maslovka, Voronezh. 43/
The Ukrainian MoD said they downed a Russian Orlan-10 UAV in the Donbas with electronic warfare systems. 44/
facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u… Image
Sergei Shoigu was in Voronezh today to inspect troops. 45/
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun… ImageImageImage
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Russia's deputy ambassador to the UN Gennady Kuzmin said, "The aggressive behavior of Kyiv is growing, Western sponsors are continuously pumping weapons into it," 47/
tass.com/politics/13629… Image
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Photos of Russian military equipment, including from the Central Military District's 41st Combined Arms Army, at Yelnya on November 9th. 49/
csis.org/analysis/mosco… ImageImageImageImage
Re: the new naval agreement between the UK and Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, "We regard this as more evidence of Britain’s growing military activity in countries neighboring on Russia, in particular, in Ukraine," 50/
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"now it is correct to say that interaction has spread to the naval sphere and weapons supplies...Instead, we can see Britain in fact encourage Kiev in its revanchist plans, which creates real risks to regional security... we are forced to...take proportionate measures." 51/
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Putin: "Of course, Ukraine’s internal crisis is among the most pressing and sensitive issues for us, which has so far remained unresolved. Demonstratively, Ukraine has failed to fulfil its obligations under the Minsk Package of Measures, as well as the Normandy agreements." 53/
"it is important to energetically continue the mediation efforts in the Contact Group and the Normandy format, since there are no other international mechanisms to promote an internal Ukrainian settlement, and there is no alternative to implementing the Minsk agreements in full."
"Importantly, our Western partners are exacerbating the situation by supplying Kyiv with modern lethal weapons, conducting provocative military exercises in the Black Sea and other regions close to our borders," including strategic bomber flights 20km from Russia's borders. 55/
Putin is likely referring to a series of flights with three US B-52 strategic bombers in August and September 2020 over the Black Sea and Ukraine near Crimea. 56/
"we constantly express our concerns about these matters and talk about red lines, but of course, we understand that our partners are peculiar in the sense that they have a very...superficial approach to our warnings about red lines. We remember well NATO's eastward expansion" 57/
"we will provide a proper response to NATO’s military activity along Russia’s borders, but, most importantly, Brussels must understand that alleviating military-political tensions is not only in Russia's interest, but also in the interest of Europe and the world in general." 58/ ImageImage
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"American and British intelligence are increasingly convinced that President Putin of Russia is considering military action to take control of a larger swath of Ukraine, or to destabilize the country enough to usher in a more pro-Moscow government." 60/
nytimes.com/2021/11/19/us/… Image
I personally don't see the value (political, economic, or military) in a land bridge, especially since the Crimean Bridge across the Kerch Strait was completed, and I doubt it would be worth the costs. 61/ Image
Russia already has tanks, howitzers, and multiple Iskander-M missile brigades permanently based near Ukraine's borders. The photos show that there is more equipment from other military districts/regions of Russia that are near the border, which isn't routine. 62/ Image
I think this is likely true. 63/ Image
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I think this is the first time Ukraine has acknowledged using Javelins in combat. 69/
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"The information lays out a scenario where troops would cross into Ukraine from Crimea, the Russian border and via Belarus, with about 100 battalion tactical groups -- potentially around 100,000 soldiers" We'll notice the buildup of another 50-60 BTGs. 71/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
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I assume these reservists refers to the BARS program, which was announced in August. The first training exercises were in the Southern Military District in October and the next starts tomorrow in the Western Military District (h/t @tom_bullock_) 73/
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Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused NATO of creating tensions near Russia's borders and not listening to Russia's warnings. 75/
tass.ru/politika/12983…
Dmitry Peskov: "NATO needs to stop provocations near our borders and halt advancing its political and military infrastructure towards our borders" "NATO definitely needs to stop pumping modern arms into Ukraine, thereby inspiring it to insane actions" 76/
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Peskov said Ukraine was pursuing a military settlement to the situation in the Donbas "under the cover of those very NATO exercises, NATO ships in the Black Sea - American, British soldiers in the region, which are becoming more and more." 77/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Peskov: "This is what Ukraine is striving for. And this is heartbreaking since it will entail some serious consequences," "this hysteria is being escalated artificially." 78/
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Ukrainian servicemen receiving training on the Turkish TB2 UCAV. 79/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… Image
The Biden administration is weighing sending military advisers and new equipment including weaponry to Ukraine, including Stinger MANPADS and Mi-17 helicopters. 80/
cnn.com/2021/11/22/pol… Image
Rear Admiral Tom Druggan said he expects the Aegis Ashore site in Poland to be operational by the end of 2022. 81/
defense.gov/News/News-Stor…
The SVR said the situation with Ukraine today is similar to that of Georgia in 2008. They accused the US and EU of pursuing a "provocative policy" that is increasing Kyiv's sense of impunity. (h/t @BVasylchenko) 82/
svr.gov.ru/smi/2021/11/ss…
TASS' translation of the SVR statement from yesterday, "The United States and its allies continue to pump up weapons to Ukraine, push it toward using such weapons, including unmanned aerial vehicles for the purposes of military provocations," 83/
tass.com/defense/1364659 ImageImage
Peskov: "the best security guarantee is the implementation of the Minsk Accords." "The lack of progress in the implementation of the Minsk Accords is a substantial irritant and a trigger that leads to an increased level of tension overall in Europe" 84/
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Peskov: "American and Ukrainian media outlets keep claiming that Russia is gearing up for hostility against Ukraine for an attack but we say that Ukraine is planning belligerent actions against the Donbass" "Russia is not going to attack anyone" 85/
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Peskov: "We find very worrisome the Ukrainian military’s provocative actions on the engagement line and preparations for a possible attempt to handle the problem of the Donbass from a position of strength," 86/
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Shoigu: "We are witnessing a considerable increase in the US strategic bombers' activity near the Russian borders. Over the past month, they conducted about 30 flights to the borders of Russia, or 2.5 times more compared to the same period of last year"87/
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From an interview today with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev. 88/
tass.com/politics/13651…
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Regarding the report that the US is considering sending military advisors to Ukraine, Andrey Kartapolov, Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, compared the situation to Afghanistan, "All US efforts to help Ukraine are leading it to the abyss". 89/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Putin, Peskov, the SVR, and other Russian officials are repeating the same line: NATO arms deliveries to Ukraine are emboldening it and leading Kyiv to believe it can retake the Donbas by force like Saakashvili and South Ossetia in 2008. 90/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
The Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valeriy Zaluzhny says that Ukraine has not used Javelin ATGMs in the Donbas but only in training. This contradicts what Ukrainian Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told the Military Times. 91/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
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Southern Military District Su-27SM3 and Su-30M2 fighters conducted an exercise with the Vasily Bykov and other ships in the Black Sea, which included targeting ships. 93/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202111241…
After the Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valeriy Zaluzhny said that they have not used Javelin ATGMs in combat, Izvestia is saying they have but that Javelins were ineffective. 94/
iz.ru/1254198/anton-…
Re: the use of Javelins, Peskov said, "No, we do not have any information on where and how they were used. But it is an obvious fact that they are present there," "Listen, the Javelin is used against something, right? The situation remains very tense," 95/
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From Fyodor Lukyanov. The comparison between Ukraine today and the 2008 South Ossetia War has now been made by several Russian officials and foreign policy analysts. 96/
eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/natos… Image
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The US Embassy in Ukraine issued a security alert for US citizens in Ukraine because of "unusual Russian military activity near Ukraine's borders and in occupied Crimea." 99/
ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert… Image
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Canada is considering deploying more troops (as part of a training mission in Ukraine), CF-18 fighters, and ships to the Black Sea in response to heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine. 101/
theglobeandmail.com/world/article-… Image
"Russia's red lines have shifted: it is no longer Ukraine in NATO that is a red line, but NATO in Ukraine that is a new red line," @vfroloff

Good rundown of Russia's perspective on Ukraine from @A_Osborn and @BalmforthTom. 102/
reuters.com/world/putins-u… Image
The Biden administration is sending more than $400 million in security assistance to Ukraine this year. 103/
nytimes.com/2021/11/25/us/… Image
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Hmm, Bloomberg reports that the Ukrainian MoD assessed there were 43 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) near Ukraine's borders on November 22, which would be 3 more than the earlier graphic from November 20. The graphic says 40 though. 106/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
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The SVR's Sergei Naryshkin accused the US of attempting to foment the conflict in the Donbas. 110/
ria.ru/20211127/narys…
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Dmitry Peskov: "We are afraid, and we have already said this, that these allegations might be meant to hide [Ukraine’s] own preparations for a force scenario in Donbass. It would be utter recklessness." 112/
tass.com/politics/13675… Image
Lukashenko said Belarus will not remain on the sidelines if there is a new war in the Donbas, "and it is clear whose side we will be on." 113/
tass.ru/mezhdunarodnay… Image
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said Belarus and Russia are planning on holding a joint exercise on Belarus's southern border with Ukraine. 114/
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Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said preparations for another summit between Biden and Putin is in an advanced stage. Still no indication from the Biden admin that this is the case. 115/
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The most optimistic explanation for Russia's current buildup near Ukraine is the goal is to extract a concession and public statement from the US and NATO that they won't deliver or base long-range missiles or missile defense systems in Ukraine. 117/
Looks like a Krasukha-4 EW system in Rostov Oblast, which borders the Donbas. 118/
The Russian MoD announced a large exercise in the Southern Military District with more than 10k servicemen from motorized rifle units formed into BTGs. They are using APL-500 mobile field camps at some of the training areas. 119/
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
David Ignatius reports that the CIA became particularly concerned by Russia's buildup near Ukraine because Russia was also "making secret plans" that included potential operations across much of Ukraine beyond the Donbas. 120/
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/… Image
The 55th Mountain Motorized Rifle Brigade is arguably the most elite MR unit in the Central Military District and based in Sergei Shoigu's native Tuva. It had 100% modern equipment back in 2019, well before other units. Concerning if true. 121/
Thread on the 55th Mountain Motorized Rifle Brigade. It is a light unit equipped with BTR-82, Tigr-M, Nona-SVK, Typhoon-K 53949, ATVs, etc. It has been a higher priority for new equipment, contract servicemen, and housing facilities. 122/
Peskov: "We saw reports that >120k servicemen have been concentrated near the conflict zone. It is precisely this that causes our apprehensions that sentiment favoring the resolution by force may prevail in Kyiv. This is very dangerous opportunism" 123/
tass.com/defense/1369259 Image
Regarding a possible invasion of Ukraine, Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko said, "There are no grounds for these assertions,"
"Russia wasn’t going to, isn’t going to and won’t attack Ukraine," 124/
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Ryabkov: "We will continue to insistently demand that Washington and its NATO allies stop building up military activity, potentials and infrastructure near Russia’s borders, and we will be taking all necessary measures to guarantee national security." 125/
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Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused Ukraine of building up 125k troops, half of Ukraine's military, and heavy equipment near the Donbas. 127/
rbc.ru/politics/01/12…
Putin: "While engaging in dialogue with the US and its allies, we will insist on the elaboration of concrete agreements that would rule out any further eastward expansion of NATO and the deployment of weapons systems posing a threat to us in close proximity to Russia’s territory. ImageImage
Source: en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
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Video of the two Island-class cutters, the Fastiv and Sumi, transferred from the US Coast Guard to the Ukrainian Navy going on patrol for the first time since their delivery. 130/
fb.watch/9Do2TM5eLz/
So this YuVO exercise will occur at the Prudboy and Danilovsky ranges in Volgograd, Nesterovsky in Ingushetia, Ashuluk in Astrakhan, Tarskoye in North Ossetia, Nikolo-Aleksandrovsky in Stavropol, Kadamovsky and Kuzminsky in Rostov, and Opuk in Crimea. 131/
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun…
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Turkish National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Erdogan and Putin will discuss the situation in Ukraine tomorrow. 134/
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Lavrov: "NATO’s further expansion to the East will clearly affect the vital interests of our security," 135/
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Lavrov: "The necessity of unconditional and full implementation of the Minsk Package of Measures by Kiev, including maintaining a direct dialogue with the authorities of the LPR and the DPR, was underscored." 136/
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Lavrov: "Ukraine is being pumped with weapons, and this goads Kyiv into sabotaging the Minsk agreements, fostering the illusion of settling this conflict by force," "Missile defense systems have been stationed in Romania and Poland" 137/
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Lavrov: "The OSCE should send Kyiv a clear signal that any revision of the Minsk agreements as the sole option for a settlement basis would be out of the question...Any attempts to dissect those key provisions...would be a road to disaster," 138/
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Dmitry Peskov: "Zelensky said that bringing back Crimea should become Ukraine’s main goal and philosophy. We see it as a direct threat aimed at Russia. This sort of wording indicates that the regime in Kyiv intends to use any and all available means" 141/
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Peksov also said the likelihood of hostilities in Ukraine is still high and said they are seeing an increasing intensity of provocative actions along the line of contact in the Donbas. He said the situation remains tense. 142/
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Kommersant reports Putin and Biden may hold a phone call early next week. 143/
kommersant.ru/doc/5103330
800 servicemen from the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division have moved to the Krinitsa, Soloti, and Pogonovo training areas in Voronezh and Belgorod for training. 144/
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Yuri Ushakov said the Putin-Biden conversation would be a videoconference and could take place after Putin's visit to India on December 6. He said that there are active preparations for the call. 145/
life.ru/p/1454364
Dmitry Peskov said the Putin-Biden videoconference call could happen on December 7th but the details haven't been finalized. 146/
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CNN reports that the Russian military has prepositioned fuel and medical capabilities that could support a "swift and immediate invasion" 148/
cnn.com/2021/12/03/pol… Image
Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev said Russia isn't planning to attack Ukraine, isn't preparing for an offensive operation, and that there isn't any heightened activity with the Russian military near Ukraine. 149/
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Yuri Ushakov: "There is no escalation. We have the right to move troops within our territory. No fanning of tensions is afoot." 150/
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The Kremlin's summary of Putin's call with Erdogan, Putin "stressed that Kyiv has continued its destructive efforts to sabotage the Minsk agreements, such as provocative activities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the conflict zone, including the use of Bayraktar attack drones" Image
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 en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
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Presumably, more equipment, mostly Tigr-M, from the Central Military District's 55th Mountain Motorized Rifle Brigade. 155/
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More than 700 snipers from the Western Military District are conducting training exercises in Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk, and Smolensk, including with Strelets-M KRUS systems, which are used to transmit target coordinates for air/arty strikes. 158/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
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Reuters and Dmitry Peskov have said Biden and Putin will hold a videoconference call on Tuesday. This was previously reported by Kommersant. 160/
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Another video of that train presumably with vehicles from the Central Military District's 55th Mountain Motorized Rifle Brigade. (h/t @DetlefKroeze) 161/
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There were a number of accidents with military vehicles during the spring buildup as well. 163/
Bloomberg reports Ukraine has received "dozens" of UAVs from Turkey with "orders for at least two dozen more" under way. Presumably, we're talking about TB2. 164/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
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Pretty clear compellent demand.
Lavrov: "If it [Ukraine] is left alone with itself...it won’t do anything. It needs to be impelled(forced)...Berlin and Paris have been neglecting their obligations. We are drawing their attention to the fact that this has to be done" 168/ Image
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 tass.com/politics/13709…
tass.ru/politika/13114…
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Most of one of the Central Military District's armies' BTGs is now not far from Ukraine's border (with more equipment on the move). This is more from that district than in the spring. This is significant. 171/
"EU and NATO allies have swung behind the Biden administration’s assessment that Russia may be poised to invade Ukraine, following unprecedented sharing of US intelligence on Moscow’s military preparations." 172/
ft.com/content/b287f2… ImageImage
>300 Southern Military District officers, including regimental COs and generals, will conduct a VTC with YUVO CO Alexander Dvornikov to conduct a command-staff war game, including recon-strike complex and the rapid and covert movement of troops. 173/
ria.ru/20211206/voysk…
Looks like Nona-SVK 120mm mortars from the 55th Mountain Motorized Rifle Brigade (h/t @tom_bullock_). More Central Military District equipment from the 41st CAA on the move. 174/
The summary of this Southern Mil District VTC says they will focus on creating reconnaissance-strike complexes simultaneously in multiple directions ASAP with aviation, naval, and ground-based fires (including Iskander-M and Tornado-S MLRS). 175/
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun…
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That train of Tigr-M, R-149MA1 C2 vehicles, and KAMAZ trucks from the Central Military District's 55th Mountain Motorized Rifle Brigade headed to Yelnya. Looks like most of the 41st Combined Arms Army is headed there. 177/
"what we can share in an unclassified format is that we have seen the movement of additional capabilities and forces to the vicinity of Ukraine in multiple different areas. And these movements are consistent with the planning that we see underway for a military escalation" 178/ Image
Admin Official: "the US is not seeking to end up in a circumstance in which the focus of our countermeasures is the direct use of US military force, as opposed to a combination of support for the Ukrainian military, strong economic countermeasures," 179/
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… Image
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The Tsesar Kunikov and Novercherkassk large landing ships loaded up equipment and troops from the Black Sea Fleet's 810th Naval Infantry Brigade. They will conduct an amphibious exercise at the Opuk training area. (h/t @ELINTNews) 181/
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun…
Peskov: "The President has initiated these talks. We don’t know yet if our partners will exert corresponding political will and agree to such contacts" re: whether the US/NATO would conduct substantive negotiations with Russia over long-term security. 182/
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Peskov: "There is no reason to expect any breakthrough from this dialogue. It will be a working conversation taking place at a very difficult time," 183/
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Peskov said Russia is worried about statements that NATO members could send military forces to Ukraine. He said that is why Russia is taking steps to protect its interests. 184/
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If you're interested in some of things Russia is responding to in Ukraine, TASS had a report from mid-November titled "The Biden Doctrine on Ukraine. Arming Kyiv to provoke Moscow" 188/
tass.ru/mezhdunarodnay…
Interesting photo. This is allegedly a member of the DNR Sparta battalion with a Strelets KRUS system used to transmit target data for strikes by air, artillery, and other PGMs. 189/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… Image
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"U.S. lawmakers included efforts to push back against Russia and China in a massive annual defense bill released on Tuesday, proposing $300 million for Ukraine’s military" 194/
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
R-166-0.5 communications vehicle, K1Sh1 RB-531B Infauna EW vehicle, and BTR-82 in Crimea. 195/
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"It is for this reason that Russia is eager to obtain reliable, legally binding guaranties ruling out the eventuality of NATO’s eastward expansion and the deployment of offensive weapons systems in the countries neighboring Russia." 199/
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Putin: "As far as NATO is concerned, it is a military alliance. Regrettably, this bloc is conducting a clearly confrontational policy towards Russia," the alliance is "unfriendly towards Russia, to put it mildly." 200/
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Putin: "We are concerned over the prospects of Ukraine’s possible accession to NATO, as it will definitely result in the deployment of military contingents, bases and weapons posing a threat to us," and noted the Aegis Onshore in Poland and Romania. 201/
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"Russia proceeds from the fact that its concerns 'will be heard at least this time.'" Another signal that Putin likely would not give us another warning he it decides to escalate in Ukraine. 202/
tass.com/world/1372803
Putin: "Russia is conducting a peaceful policy but it has the right to ensure its security, as I mentioned, in the medium and longer term," 203/
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Regarding the call with Biden yesterday, Putin said, "The conversation was very open, detailed, and, I would say, constructive. In any case, I hope that the American side has the same evaluation of the results of our meeting," 204/
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Putin: "We have an opportunity to continue this dialogue, I think, this is the most important thing," 205/
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I could be wrong, but this looks like components from a Buk-M2 or Buk-M1-2 system. Plus a Msta-S howitzer battalion and T-80U tanks (some still on trains). 206/
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Looks like missiles for older Buk-M1 or Buk-M1-2 systems. 207/
The 1st Guards Tank Army's 49th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade was equipped with Buk-M1-2. Most likely unit considering the 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank Division's T-80U tanks. 208/
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Regarding security proposals, Putin said, "Russia will prepare its suggestions within a few days, and within a week, we will hand them to the US side for consideration," 214/
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As with other Russian officials, Putin said the US-Russia dialogue on cyber security issues has been constructive and "yields positive results." 215/
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Presumably, more images of Buk-M1-2 medium-range air defense systems from the 1st Guards Tank Army's 49th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade in Maslovka. 217/
There is a big difference between deploying motorized rifle and tank BTGs and deploying army, division, or district-level supporting assets. Russia wouldn't fight a large-scale conventional conflict without high-level air defense, EW, engineering, logistics, and C2 assets. 218/
Another good scoop by @haltman from the Ukrainian MoD. They assess Russia has 98,000 ground troops and about 22,000 air and naval forces near Ukraine. Russia has deployed additional SIGINT units and is conducting more reconnaissance aircraft flights. 219/
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Logistics vehicles, MT-LB, and a MTU-72 armored vehicle-launched bridge. 221/
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Gen. Kyrylo O. Budanov: “Unfortunately, Ukraine needs to be objective at this stage,” “There are not sufficient military resources for repelling a full-scale attack by Russia if it begins without the support of Western forces.” 223/
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Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov: "First, we are not opposed to [the US joining the Normandy Four format]. Second, it is not us who have doubts about it. Third, we don’t quite understand what the Americans can bring to this format," 225/
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"Legal guarantees can be issued in different ways, but they should be contractual guarantees. There are no more promises, any words, nor political documents - we have been over this. The situation is qualitatively new now, and it should be...addressed in a different way." 226/ Image
Ryabkov: "The situation which has been unfolding at present, is that of a severe crisis in the Euro-Atlantic and a potential conflict. People realize that it can’t go further that way," 227/
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Ryabkov: "We hope that Washington and its European allies...will refrain from stepping over the ‘red lines’ that there exist and that have been drawn pretty clearly for the opponents to see. This will allow for preventing the confrontation spiral from going loose"
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Ryabkov: "The issue on the agenda is creation of legal guarantees that would include NATO’s non-expansion to the east, and non-deployment near our territory of any weapon systems threatening us," Likely referring to Aegis Onshore/MK 41 systems. 229/
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Zakharova: "We regularly inform and warn our partners of the risks to military and political stability in the Euro-Atlantic region... We point...to the consequences of careless and provocative actions by NATO near Russia’s borders" 230/
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"But senior State Department officials have told Ukraine that NATO membership is unlikely to be approved in the next decade, according to a person familiar with those private talks who spoke on condition of anonymity." 232/
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T-80U tanks from the 4th Guards Tank Division and Msta-S howitzers at Maslovka. 236/
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Ryabkov: "As a first step, I invite our NATO colleagues to tackle the issue of how to make Russia’s unilateral moratorium on the deployment of such systems bilateral, mutual and verifiable. Our proposals are on the table, please don’t shrug them off" 238/
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Ryabkov: "The arsenal of resources for the normalization of what is going on, even at a new level of risks but enough to guarantee our security, is vast. Our military colleagues have all the necessary means... We are confident in our forces," 239/
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Ryabkov: "Although the US declared the intention to remove irritants on the bilateral track, real steps in this sphere have been confined so far to the return of ambassadors to capitals of accreditation," 240/
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Ryabkov: "We need to deepen the discussion on the specifics as part of the dialogue on strategic stability at the upcoming meeting," noting that the new round of strategic stability talks between Russia and the US would likely take place in January. 241/
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Ships from the Caspian Flotilla rehearsed moving covertly at night. I would expect Russia to redeploy some of the Flotilla's landing craft to the Black Sea if they intend on conducting an operation against Ukraine. (h/t @tom_bullock_) 243/
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The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls for NATO to formally disavow the 2008 Bucharest Summit decision that Ukraine and Georgia will become NATO members and long-term legal guarantees re: NATO expansion and weapons deployments near Russia. 246/
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They also call for negotiations on limitations of military exercises at an agreed distance from the Russia-NATO contact line, on interactions with ships and aircraft (primarily in the Baltic and Black Sea), and resumption of regular Rus-US and Rus-NATO defense dialogue. 247/ Image
Putin mentioned in April that Russia could respond to violations of its red lines (which he left vague) asymmetrically. I interpreted that as possibly using force against Ukraine even if the red line wasn't specifically related to Ukraine. 248/
2S7M Malka (or Pion) 203mm heavy artillery pieces. Not sure if we can geolocate this, but the Western Military District's 45th High-Power Artillery Brigade in Tambov is equipped with 2S7M and 2S4 Tyulpan heavy mortars. 249/
In the spring, the Southern Military District's 291st Artillery Brigade moved its 2S7M Malka and 2S4 Tyulpan systems from Ingushetia closer to Ukraine's border. I could be wrong, but the video doesn't look like it is from Ingushetia. 250/
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said it would be naïve to think Russia would soon receive security guarantees from the US, but said if the US and other allies torpedo the initiative it will lead to a deterioration in their security. 251/
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I counted around 30 T-80U tanks (i.e. a tank battalion), from either the 12th or 13th Tank Regiments, part of a Msta-s battery, and much of a T-72B3 tank battalion, possibly from the 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment. 254/
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More than 1.5k Southern Military District tankers conducted live-fire training with T-72B1, T-72B3, and T-90A tanks. 256/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202112111…
BMP-3 IFVs from the Southern Military District's 150th Motorized Rifle Division at the Kadamovsky training ground in Rostov. 257/
Photos: Сергей Пивоваров
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Plenty of Msta-S howitzers as well as what appears to be at least one BM-21 Grad MLRS and Rys vehicle. I think the last screenshot is of a Borisoglebsk-2 EW system. 260/
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Looks like a Msta-S howitzer battalion, T-80U tank, battalion, and T-72B3 tank battalion. 261/
Looks like BM-21 Grad MLRS and 2S1 Gvozdika artillery. 262/
Sergei Ryabkov said Russia hasn't seen much progress in its relations with the US except for discussions on strategic stability and cyber security, and he said it is premature to say there will be real progress there either. 263/
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T-72B tanks, BMP-2, MT-LB, MDK-3 and EOV-4421 excavators, BREM-1, BAT-2 tracklayer, and REM-KL recovery vehicle. 265/
t.me/milinfolive/73…
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Worth noting that Rybakov used stronger rhetoric than other Russian officials in the spring as well. 267/
The Russian MoD says they have set up APL-500 mobile field camps at 9 Southern Military District training areas in Astrakhan, Volgograd, Rostov, Stavropol, Kuban, North Ossetia, and Crimea to support battalion tactical groups. 268/
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mto.ric.mil.ru/Stati/item/316… ImageImageImage
The Russian MoD says troops with T-80U tanks, BMP-2, and MT-LB from the 4th Tank Division were moved by rail to Nizhny Novgorod for training. Didn't see any T-80U tanks in the photos but there were plenty of BRM-1K. 269/
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270/
This comes after French fighters and tanker aircraft were met by Russian fighters twice last week over the Black Sea. 271/
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Fuel and logistics convoy reportedly 100km from the border in Bryansk. 274/
Possibly the same convoy. 275/
The French Navy released communications between the French frigate Auvergne and Russian frigate Admiral Essen in the Black Sea. (h/t @ryankakiuchan) 276/
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EOV-3523 excavators, TMM-3M2 heavy mechanized bridges, UR-77 MICLICs, IMR-2 combat engineering vehicles, BAT-2 tracklayers, and other engineering equipment. 279/
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IMR-2 combat engineering vehicles, TMM-3M2 heavy mechanized bridges, probably R-149MA1 C2 vehicles, and a large number of MT-LB vehicles reportedly moving through Lgov, which is ~50km from the border. 280/
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The Russian MoD said ~2k servicemen and 200 pieces of equipment from the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division conducted live-fire training at the Pogonovo and Krinitsa training areas in Voronezh, more than half of which took part at night. 282/
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Assistant Secretary of State Karen Donfried arriving at the Russian Foreign Ministry for her meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. 284/
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Lavrov: "Despite all the serious contradictions and gaps in the approaches, the United States is at least willing to develop such dialogue," 287/
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Yury Ushakov: "specific proposals for the development of legal guarantees of Russia’s security were handed over to US representatives at our Foreign Ministry’s office," "He was hopeful that the Americans and NATO officials would react positively," 288/
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National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had a phone call today with Yury Ushakov to discuss Ukraine. 289/
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Ukraine’s Security and Defense Council Secretary Alexey Danilov: "There has been some increase in [Russia’s] troop numbers but not critical enough for us to say: this is it, it [an invasion] is going to happen now." Not sure about the 500-600k figure. 290/
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Russian S-400 units in Crimea conducted a training exercise which involved occupying a new position with Su-24M bombers serving as the enemy. 291/

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The Kremlin's summary of Putin's call with Sauli Niinistö yesterday "stressed the importance of immediately starting talks with the United States and NATO. The goal of the talks would be to draft international legal security guarantees for Russia." 292/
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"examples of violations by Kyiv of the Minsk agreements, which is the only viable path towards overcoming the internal Ukraine crisis. It was also noted that the Ukrainian authorities are purposefully aggravating the situation on the line of contact," 294/
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Russia's ambassador to the UK said Ukraine's potential accession into NATO is an unacceptable threat to Russia and promised a response to that eventuality. 295/
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No surprise to see a reinforced Tor battery SHORAD taking part. I could be wrong but this looks like an older Tor system, possibly a Tor-M1 or Tor-M2U. 297/
BMP-2, T-72B3, BREM-1 vehicles, but what is most interesting are the GAZ-3344-20 Aleut and back half of DT-30 Vityaz tracked vehicles. Possibly from the Northern Fleet's 80th or 200th Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigades. (h/t @tom_bullock_) 298/
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The Northern Fleet's 61st Naval Infantry Brigade and 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade both fought in Ukraine in 2014. The Aleut and Vityaz vehicles are somewhat rare in the Russian military and mostly in service with Arctic units. 299/
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Ryabkov: "since we put forward proposals, the other side puts forward ultimatums and dangerous activity is being continued under the pretext of these ultimatums which has a negative impact on our security interests. We can’t tolerate it any longer" 304/
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Ryabkov: "I would like to note that both texts are drawn not under a menu principle when you are free to choose among the options, they are supplementary to one another and should be considered as a package," 305/
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Regarding the response from the US and NATO on Russia's security guarantees, Ryabkov said, "The signals from Washington and Brussels disappoint us extremely," 306/
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The list of security guarantees published by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 307/
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US intelligence assesses that Russia has sent more military units near Ukraine's borders in recent days, confirming what we're seeing through social media. They assess that Russia has more than 50 BTGs with 6 more headed towards Ukraine's border. 308/
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First video of a Turkish TB2 UCAV in service with Kyrgyzstan’s Border Service. When Russia talks about NATO encroachment in the former Soviet Union, this is one of the things they’re talking about. 310/
t.me/ChDambiev/12424
Photos of Kyrgyzstan’s first TB2 UCAVs armed with MAM-L munitions. 311/
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Looks like the Central Military District's 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade is deliberately covering up their "peacekeeping" (МС) signs on their BTR-82A. 312/
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Russia has officially withdrawn from the Open Skies Treaty. 314/
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Sergei Ryabkov said Russia has proposed bilateral negotiations with the United States, and they don't want multilateral negotiations. 315/
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"We are making clear that we are ready to talk about switching over from a military or a military-technical scenario to a political process" "If that doesn’t work out, we signaled to them [NATO] that will also move over to creating counter threats," 317/
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Possibly, BARS reservists going through training. 318/
The marching skills certainly indicate these guys are reservists. 319/
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Re: timing of demands, Ryabkov: "It is because this year saw a sharp hike in alarming and unacceptable activities on behalf of the United States, NATO member countries in close collaboration with Ukraine and other, the so-called, NATO’s partners." 322/
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Ryabkov: "I said that we would find forms to respond, including by military and military-technical means...I reaffirm this. We will have to balance the activities that are of concern to us, because they increase the risks, with our countermeasures" 323/
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Ryabkov on the security guarantees, "It is not an ultimatum, it is an invitation to a serious conversation," 324/
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Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergey Nechayev said, "As is well known, Russia is ready for dialogue," he said, adding that Western partners should "stop fanning tensions around Ukraine." 325/
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Ryabkov: "These are our real concerns. In various versions and in various forms all this has been said dozens, if not hundreds, of times over the past few years." 326/
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Rudenko: "The matter is not about fear, the matter is that our neighbors, not only Ukraine, have reached a kind of a boiling point, which really forces us to take certain radical steps, at least, we say that we are prepared to think in a different way"
327
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"other countries neighboring Russia where offensive systems’ flight time is 4-5 minutes...There are no such systems in Ukraine so far. Our reaction is a preventive measure meant to warn that under certain scenarios we will take certain steps which we are not talking about now" Image
"NATO-have continued to hit Russia’s sore spots, which they have been doing for a long time. The moment of truth has arrived. Now, that we have told them what we think on this score and how we should act, they will have to react seriously, and not dismiss everything offhand" 329/ Image
"There must be a serious discussion and everybody in NATO is well aware that however strong the alliance may be, it is necessary to take concrete political action, because Russia’s military-technical and military response will be the sole alternative" 330/
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Ryabkov: "the talks should be bilateral. As for other formats, of course, we do factor in the wishes of certain figures and representatives of certain structures, but this does not mean that we are changing our position," 331/
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Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the US will likely respond to Russia's security guarantees with additional conditions to slow down the process, but he said Russia needs the guarantees urgently. 333/
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Agree with @Danspiun, this looks like a T-80BV tank. T-80BV and T-80BVM tanks are mostly in service with Northern Fleet or Eastern Military District units; however, the 4th Tank Division has T-80BV tanks as well. 334/
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Msta-B howitzers. 338/
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Reuters reports the White House is considering export control measures that could halt Russia's ability to import smartphones, aircraft and vehicle components, and materials from other sectors in case of a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. 340/
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Probably more equipment from the 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade, which is based near the border with Finland. 343/
Sergei Lavrov said there are some agreements between Washington and Moscow on the dialogue mechanisms related to Russia's security guarantees/demands. 344/
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Lavrov: "we do not need any conflicts and we hope that no one else views conflicts as a desirable scenario. We will strictly ensure our security by those means that we deem appropriate. And we are warning hot heads, of which there are many in Ukraine and also in the West" 346/ Image
"The US leadership agreed quite promptly with us on the organizational framework of further work and I view this as a positive step on the eve of the new year after all, despite very serious upcoming work on the substance of the problem," 347/
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Sergei Lavrov: "We will do everything to ensure that we are understood and I hope that we will be taken seriously in light of the actions we are undertaking to ensure our defense capabilities," 348/
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"Tensions have been continually stirred up around us over the past few decades, with NATO’s military infrastructure getting closer to our borders, not to mention the fact that we have been regularly deceived. We insist on solely legally binding guarantees"
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Sergei Lavrov: "It was agreed that at the very beginning of next year, the first round would be a bilateral contact between Russia’s and US’ negotiators, they have already been named, they are acceptable for both sides," 350/
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A day after speaking to General Mark Millery, CGS Valery Gerasimov spoke to the UK's top officer, Admiral Tony Radakin. 351/
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BM-21 Grad MLRS, T-72B3, BMP-2, MT-LB, MDK-3 and EOV-4421 excavators, BREM-1, BAT-2 tracklayer, REM-KL recovery vehicle, and other equipment. 352/
T-72B3 tanks and 2S3 Akatsiya howitzers. 353/
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Looks like a Msta-S 152mm howitzer battalion at the bottom, a 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm howitzer battalion in the top left, a tank company (presumably T-90A), and two BMP-3 motorized rifle battalions. Possibly an air defense battery below the BMP-3. 355/
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Western Military District Commander Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlev is in Voronezh for an inspection of the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army. 356/
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VDV Commander Colonel-General Andrei Serdyukov said more than 1,200 Russian paratroopers and > 250 pieces of equipment exercises at the Opuk range in Crimea and Raevsky range in Krasnodar. The exercise will involve helicopter air assault operations. 358/
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The exercise will also involve RKhBZ units, likely for obscuration, and aerial threats, including UAVs. 359/
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The Russian MoD said more than 1,000 servicemen are conducting live-fire exercises at training ranges in Voronezh, Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, and Smolensk. 360/
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DNR's Eduard Basurin says that the American PMC Greystone operates in the Donbas. The same claim was made back in April 2014. 361/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202112232…
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Dmitry Peskov says Russia wants negotiations over strategic stability issues and Russia's security guarantees/demands decoupled. 362/
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Ryabkov: "If the US demands we carry out some activities on our territory as a precondition, which will appeal to DC and to other NATO capitals or which the Americans would like to present as a precondition for future work at Kyiv’s behest, this won’t do"
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If this occurs, Russia will conclude the US "lacks political will to make agreements" and is using the opportunity "to cover up its ongoing policy aimed at using the territory of Ukraine and other countries for military purposes against Russia." 364/
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Good eye by @tom_bullock_, Buk-M3 9T243M transloader on this train. The Buk-M3 is Russia's most capable medium-range air defense system. 365/
2nd photo from @saidpvo
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Officers from the Western Military District's 20th Combines Arms Army conducted a training exercise in Voronezh, which included instruction on how EW can counter UAVs, including the Turkish TB2 UCAV in service with Ukraine. (h/t @80bvm) 366/
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Video of yesterday's VDV exercise at the Opuk training area in Crimea, which involved Sarmat-2 light vehicles, UAZ Patriot pickups, BTR-ZD, ATVs, Zala UAVs, BMD-4M, BTR-MDM, T-72B3 tanks with roof screens, TOS-1A, and MTU-72 bridge layer. 368/
T-72B3 tanks in Crimea with roof screens, and a Sarmat-2 buggy with an UAZ Patriot pickup. 369/ ImageImageImageImage
Video of the live-fire exercise in Crimea with 1.2k paratroopers. Obviously, a VDV formation with T-72B3 tanks, attached TOS-1A and engineering assets needed to punch through defensive lines and a C-UAS component is relevant to a Ukraine scenario. 370/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202112242…
More screenshots of T-72B3 tanks with counter ATGM/loitering munition roof screens. 371/
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The Russian MoD said Su-27SM3 and Su-30M2 fighters from the 3rd Composite Aviation Regiment in Krymsk, Krasnodar practiced redeploying to airfields in Crimea. 372/
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The Russian MoD says the Southern Military District has completed an exercise with 10k + servicemen that involved rotating the BTGs through training areas with a modular system. They said those units will now return to their permanent bases. 374/
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun…
However, the most concerning area is on Ukraine's northern/northeastern border where Central and Western Military Districts units have massed. No sign they'll leave and the Southern Military District units can be returned quickly. Russia will still have an enhanced mil presence.
BMP-2 battalion, T-72B3 company, 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm howitzer battalion, and BM-21 Grad battery with other supporting equipment. 376/
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Regarding a Russian response if its security guarantees are turned down, Putin said, "It may vary," "It will depend on the proposals that our military experts will make to me." 379/
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"The latest Ukrainian initiatives touted in the media about some kind of ’10 Steps’ to unblock the peace process, in fact duplicate the provisions as stipulated by the Minsk Accords, which Kyiv keeps sabotaging by resorting to all possible means" 380/
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The Russian MoD said its exercise with the VDV's 7th Air Assault Division at the Opuk training area in Crimea and Raevsky training area near Novorossiysk has ended. 381/
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Peskov said that Putin will talk to Zelensky about bilateral relations but not as a party to the conflict in the Donbas. 382/
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Fomin: "The current deplorable state of relations between Russia and NATO can be explained by the fact that the alliance has often resorted to using hybrid methods to contain Russia, combining dialogue with a build-up of military preparations," 383/
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Matviyenko: "There is active military colonization of Ukrainian territory" "So far there are no real, specific steps to remove our justified concerns, those worries that we express. NATO continues to move to our borders, now right up to them" 384/
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Fomin: "Lately, the alliance opted for direct provocations, fraught with a great risk of developing into an armed standoff," mentioning the HMS Defender incident and the alleged role of a US RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft. 385/
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Deputy Defense Minister Fomin: "The NATO bloc conducts 30 large-scale drills, in which it practices the scenarios of warfare against Russia. Special attention in combat training is paid to creating strike task forces near the borders of our country." 386/
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When asked about Russia's negotiating position, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov mentioned Lady Gaga's Poker Face song. 387/
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"I am not going to engage in speculation...First of all, when the issue is as serious as it has been for a long time and stated in our proposals, to announce a plan B means to weaken our position and make it easier for opponents to solve this problem" 388/
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Sergei Lavrov referred to the EU's approach to Russia as "political Kama Sutra." 389/
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Lavrov said Zelensky had "progressive principles, called for freeing people from oligarchs, observing the rights of Russians and other national minorities, and most importantly, promised to bring peace to Donbass" during his election campaign. 390/
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Lavrov: "Zelensky often does things that are simply reckless. And [the West] <…> is afraid that some folly may spark a conflict that no one needs," he also noted Zelensky is "seeking to get rid of left-wing opponents, like Medvedchuk," 391/
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Fomin: "The strengthening of NATO didn’t go without leaving a mark on Europe’s security," mentioning NATO's Operation Allied Force operation in Yugoslavia. 392/
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Dmitry Peskov said it makes sense to have NATO-Russia negotiations as well as US-Russia negotiations and said the details are being worked out. 393/
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Ryabkov: "We in Moscow are committed to raising the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. An opposite trend has been seen in the United States over the recent years," accusing the US of viewing nuclear weapons as "battlefield weapons" 394/
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Regarding Russia's security guarantees/demands, Ryabkov said, "we are not bluffing. These are our real proposals. The West’s awareness of this needs to be facilitated and we are going to make every effort to achieve it," 395/
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396/
Regarding security guarantees, Peskov reiterated that "a decision is needed, a quick, concrete solution is needed, and a solution that will meet our interests." He said drawn-out negotiations won't be satisfactory. 397/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
BMD-4M airborne armored vehicles in Pskov, presumably from the VDV's 76th Air Assault Division. 398/
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Regarding Russia's red lines, Putin said they have been pushed to these lines and can't retreat further. 399/
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From four days ago, WSJ reports Russia has 53 BTGs near the border with Ukraine, and US intel officials believe a Russian intervention is more likely than they did several weeks ago. 400/
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Lavrov: "so that they don’t water down our proposals in endless discussions, which is something the West knows how to do and is notorious for. These diplomatic efforts must yield results. Even more importantly, these results must be achieved within a determined timeframe." 403/ Image
Lavrov: "we have warned them that since they have put all the mil-to-mil initiatives on hold since 2014 and reduced our contacts to sporadic telephone calls to the CGS, the conversation will make sense only if the military are directly involved." 404/
mid.ru/en/foreign_pol… Image
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"NATO has become a purely geopolitical project aimed at taking over the territories orphaned by the collapse of the Warsaw Treaty Organization and the USSR. This is what it is doing now. And we cannot sit on our hands when they are approaching “'the doorstep of our house,'” 406/ Image
Lavrov "during the five waves of NATO eastward expansion carried out contrary to their pledges, as President Putin has pointed out. Therefore, this time we demand – this is the only option – legally binding security guarantees. Trust but verify." 407/
mid.ru/en/foreign_pol… Image
The spring buildup wasn't a regular exercise and the units from the Central Military District never left. 408/ Image
Konstantin Kosachev said that Russia isn't planning on invading Ukraine but noted that the Russian military can be used to protect Russian citizens abroad. He said Ukraine is being prodded to use military force to solve its problems in the southeast. 409/
interfax.ru/russia/812915
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The Russian MoD said the intensity of training for the Southern Military District's 150th Motorized Rifle Division has increased by 15% this year. 412/
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun…
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If the Caspian Flotilla landing craft were moved at night, that would be another way in which the current buildup differed from the spring when the landing craft were heavily photographed mid transit. 415/
BREM-1, tanks, MT-LB, R-149MA1 command vehicles and other equipment in this video. No location given. 416/
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The US sent another JSTARS aircraft over Ukraine today, after conducting a flight on Monday. 417/
cnn.com/2021/12/29/pol…
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Putin told Biden, "if the West goes ahead to introduce abovementioned unprecedented sanctions, then all that could cause a total severance of relations between our countries and most serious damage will be done to Russia’s relations with the West" 422/
tass.com/politics/13831… Image
The summary of the phone call from the White House. 423/
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… Image
Good article from @CITeam_ru on the latest Russian military developments near Ukraine. 424/
citeam.org/ru-military-bu…
Yuri Ushakov: “The U.S. president, in principle, agreed with this point of view and reacted quite logically and quite seriously,” “It is important that the American side demonstrated a desire to understand the logic and essence of Russian concerns,” 425/
washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/… Image
As a means of deflecting from Russia's buildup near Ukraine, Dmitry Peskov noted Alexey Danilov's comments that he didn't see a large Russian military presence near the border. 426/
tass.com/world/1382887 Image
Sergei Lavrov said Russia would take all necessary measures to protect Donbas residents, including Russian citizens, and that Russia would respond to any possible "military provocations" by Kyiv in the Donbass. 427/
ria.ru/20211231/donba… Image
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Video of the construction of a Turkish MILGEM corvette for the Ukrainian Navy. 429/
t.me/bmpd_cast/10103
Russian officials specifically mentioned Biden’s “price to pay” comment from the spring as the kind of rhetoric that angered them. 430/
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Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had a call with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu today. Believe it or not, this summary from the DoD gave more details than the Russian MoD. 439/
defense.gov/News/Releases/…
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=… Image
Ryabkov: "According to certain signs, our US colleagues would like alternatively to turn the topic of security guarantees into the element of the strategic stability dialog. Certainly, this is not completely suitable for us," 440/
tass.com/politics/13843… Image
Ryabkov: "Therefore, problems of future arms control, everything that can replace the extended Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) appear now as the second number on the scale of priorities," 441/
tass.com/politics/13842… Image
Ryabkov: "We expect - the President reiterated that - to have the fairly quick result [in security talks with the US and NATO]," 442/
tass.com/politics/13842… Image
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Video of military equipment at a train station in Primorsky Krai, in Russia's Far East. 445/
BMP-2 and other military equipment on a train reportedly in Transbaikal. 446/
Ulan-Ude. 447/
24 or more BMP-2, two excavators (one is a E-305BV on the KrAZ-255B1 chassis), IMR-2, KS-55729-7M crane (?), and other trucks reportedly on the move in Irkutsk. I don't remember seeing any Eastern Military District units as part of Ukraine buildup. 448/
If Russia wants to keep up the pressure near Ukraine but can't commit too many VDV units (because of Kazakhstan), sending Eastern Military District units makes sense. They could also be deployed near the border with Kazakhstan just in case to back fill the 41st CAA. 449/
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NYT report on some of the potential US responses to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, including technology sanctions against the Russian defense industry, and possible export of Stinger MANPADS. 451/
nytimes.com/2022/01/08/us/… ImageImageImage
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Those are relatively rare T-80BVM tanks, reportedly in Amur. They are likely either being delivered to units based in the Far East, or are headed elsewhere. 453/
Possibly from the Eastern Military District's 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade based in Khabarovsk. 454/
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2S1 Gvozdika howitzers in Khabarovsk. I doubt they're going to Kazakhstan. 457/
BTR-82, KamAZ and Ural trucks, excavator, R-149MA1 command and staff vehicles, etc. reportedly in Amur. 458/
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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: “The Russian military buildup has not stopped. It is gradually building up with artillery and electronic warfare equipment.” 460/
theguardian.com/world/2022/jan… Image
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Ryabkov: "the two documents on the table, we will be ready to literally discuss them in detail. Honestly speaking, I really doubt that our American colleagues are ready for such a talk, judging by the signals that we have been hearing in recent days" 462/
tass.com/politics/13853… Image
Ryabkov said Russia will be forced to respond to steps to strengthen NATO's security posture without an agreement on its security guarantees. He said Russia would be forced to correct this balance and deter their opponent. 463/
tass.com/politics/13853… Image
RIAC's Andrey Kortunov believes NATO and Russia should discuss a "buffer zone along the contact line between Russia and NATO with some special military activity regime on this territory, of non-deployment of certain types of arms there, of restrictions of military exercises" 464/ Image
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 Source: tass.com/society/1384959
The Russian delegation arriving in Geneva. 466/
t.me/rian_ru/138665
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TASS: "Moscow assumes that the west should unilaterally give up the expansion of NATO and liquidate the military infrastructure that has been created, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov...said in an interview with TASS on Sunday" 469/
tass.com/politics/13853… Image
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The State Department's readout of the talk between Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov today. 471/
state.gov/deputy-secreta… Image
The statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry. It said the Russian side stressed the need for legally binding guarantees prohibiting further NATO expansion. 472/
mid.ru/ru/foreign_pol… Image
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According to American officials, Russia has just under 60 BTGs "on the ground" (presumably, near Ukraine). They also report Russia has positioned additional "Attack and transport helicopters, along with ground attack fighter jets". 474/
nytimes.com/2022/01/10/us/… ImageImage
This train allegedly crossed through Amur with UR-77 MICLICs and BMP-3 IFVs. The only unit in the Far East with BMP-3 that I know of is the Pacific Fleet's 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, which received them last year. 475/
Two Nona-SVK 120mm mortar batteries. 476/
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Ryabkov: "The conversation was difficult, lengthy, very professional, profound, and concrete. There were no attempts to embellish anything or to skirt contentious issues," 483/
tass.com/politics/13859… Image
Ryabkov: "our proposals, explained why obtaining legal guarantees of NATO’s non-expansion was an absolute imperative, why it was necessary for us to receive legal guarantees of not deploying weapons <…> near Russian borders." 484/
tass.com/politics/13859… Image
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Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, "We are hoping for Washington to respond soon, promptly," she said on her Telegram channel. "As they say, the ball isn’t back in our court. It’s still in the US court." 486/
tass.com/politics/13864… Image
"a source close to the bilateral talks" told TASS that "threats to global security will grow higher," if the US and Russia don't come to an agreement. 487/
tass.com/politics/13862… Image
Zakharova: "complex issues [of the security guarantees], and these are very complex issues...still have a chance and should have a chance for a professional, constructive, business-like conversation...We are ready for further work" 488/
tass.com/politics/13861… Image
When asked about the perspectives of the next round of Russia-US talks, Peskov underscored that "everything will become clear once the next two rounds [in Vienna and Brussels] are over." 489/
tass.com/politics/13862… Image
Peskov said they are not ready for another Putin-Biden conversation yet, "There are not that many reasons for optimism so far," but added "work will continue." 490/
tass.com/politics/13862… Image
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The Russian MoD announced ~3k servicemen from the Western Military District's 144th and 3rd Motorized Rifle Divisions will take part in exercises in Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk, and Smolensk with an emphasis on coordination with various units. 495/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Likely, the same train we saw previously with UR-77 MICLICs and BMP-3, presumably from the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade. This time in Irkutsk. 496/
BM-21 Grad MLRS and log train reportedly in Irkutsk. 497/
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BM-27 Uragan MLRS. Uragans from the 41st Combined Arms Army’s 120th Artillery Brigade (based near Novosibirsk) were deployed in the spring. These might be the rest of them or from another unit. 499/
They're from the Eastern Military District (h/t @Mortis_Banned). 500/
BM-21 Grad MLRS battery and BMP-2 moving through Krasnoyarsk. 501/
It will be interesting to see whether the Omicron variant could affect the timing of a Russian escalation in Ukraine. 502/
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
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Peskov: "we are holding them in a cultured manner, we are open to dialogue and our diplomats maintained diplomatic traditions despite the rough situation. We prefer having talks in the 1st place and only then to voice our evaluations and predictions" 504/
tass.com/politics/13868… Image
Peskov: "Of course, Russia is concerned over any NATO expansion. NATO is not an instrument of development, it is an instrument of confrontation,"
"It is a totally obvious fact, so an expansion of this mechanism is a threat for us," 505/
tass.com/politics/13868… Image
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More than 10k servicemen in BTGs from Southern military District motorized rifle brigades and Black Sea/Caspian Flotilla coastal forces have begun their first exercises of the year at more than 20 training ranges. 507/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Possibly, Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems. Russia already has 4-5 Iskander-M brigades fairly close to Ukraine. 508/
REM-KL repair and recovery vehicle and a number of tank tractors in Siberia. 509/
6 BM-27 Uragan MLRS 9P140 launchers in the Jewish Autonomous Region as well as 9T542 transporter-loading vehicles. A normal Uragan battalion comes with 8 launchers, which may have been elsewhere on the train. 510/
iz.ru/675176/evgenii…
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Another video of 20+ BMP-3, presumably from the Pacific Fleet's 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, transiting through Krasnoyarsk. 512/
BM-21 Grad MLRS in Buryatia. 513/
Borisoglebsk 2 EW system, UR-77 MICLIC, BTS-4A recovery vehicle, IMR-2 engineering vehicle, RKhM Kashalot, BMP-2, BM-21 Grad MLRS, etc. 514/
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BM-27 Uragan MLRS in Chita. 515/
T-80BVM tanks, likely from the Eastern Military District's 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Khabarovsk. 516/
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Iskander-M systems in Sverdlovsk. (h/t @tom_bullock_ and @ELINTNews) 518/
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T-80BV tanks. 520/
Sergei Lavrov said, "NATO and Washington vehemently reject our right to seek the non-expansion of NATO." 521/
tass.com/defense/1387857 Image
Russia may assign its Navy to take certain measures to confront any future US provocations or continued US military pressure, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on Thursday. 522/
tass.com/defense/1387823 Image
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Deputy Defense Minister Fomin said NATO-Russia relations have reached a critically low point. He said NATO has ignored Russian concerns, which creates the conditions for incidents and conflicts and undermines security. 524/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
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The Russian MoD's summary says that the snap inspection is part of the preparations for the Vostok 2022 command and staff exercise, which will likely occur in September. 532/
tass.com/defense/1388035 Image
BMP-2 moving through Chelyabinsk. 533/
Possibly, Iskander-M. 534/
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Also notable: the Southern Military District is conducting another call up of reservists under the BARs program, which will occur throughout the month at 9 training ranges. 536/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
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According to the top diplomat, NATO is trying to dictate its will to everyone. "We know and are able to safeguard our security in any case, and I can assure you that we are not going to endlessly wait for some changes and promises," Lavrov said. 539/
tass.com/politics/13881… Image
Sergei Lavrov said the construction of NATO military bases in the Sea of Azov would constitute a Russian red line even if Ukraine wasn't a member of NATO. 540/
ria.ru/20220114/nato-… Image
Lavrov said he appreciated the Biden admin's decision on the New START treaty, "On the whole, we are confident that if there is goodwill and willingness to make compromises, then it’s always possible to find a mutually acceptable solution," 541/
tass.com/politics/13881… Image
Lavrov: "we need precisely legally binding guarantees because the political obligations that were made in the 90s, not to mention the verbal obligations, have never been fulfilled by our partners. Apparently, they are not going to do this now either." 542/
tass.com/politics/13881… Image
Lavrov: "the prospects for achieving an accord depend on the US. Whatever some may say about the need for consultations with the allies and for involving all OSCE members, it’s nothing but a lame excuse and an attempt to procrastinate" 543/
tass.com/politics/13881… Image
Sergei Lavrov said that Russia expects Washington and NATO to provide a written response to its demands by next week. 544/
abcnews.go.com/International/…
Nona-S 120mm mortars, T-80BV tanks, MT-LB, and BMP-3. Almost certainly from the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade traveling through Krasnoyarsk. 545/
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Sergei Lavrov specified, "Military-technical measures imply the deployment of military hardware, it is obvious. And when we make decisions about these or those steps, we always know what we mean and what we are getting prepared for," 547/
tass.com/defense/1388331 Image
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The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is also bringing UR-77 MICLICs. 55/
Possibly the first video of Russia moving aviation closer to Ukraine (not sure where this video was taken). In the spring, Russia moved dozens of Su-25SM3 attack aircraft and Mi-28N/UB, Ka-52, and Mi-8AMTSh helicopters to Crimea. 551/
BM-27 Uragan MLRS. 552/
Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters. It seems Russia is beginning to move some of its short-range aviation closer to Ukraine. 553/
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Looks like a Buk-M2. Two 9S36 Low Altitude Acquisition/Engagement Radars and 9A316/9A317 launchers. 555/
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Plus Krasukha-4 EW systems. (H/t @tom_bullock_) 557/
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Looks like more Iskander-M. 559/
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Two 2S3 152mm howitzer batteries. 564/
Tigr-M vehicles. 565/
BM-27 Uragan MLRS. 566/
Peskov: "And we find it necessary to keep those troops there in front of the very tense situation and very unfriendly environment created by various training of NATO...we have to respond. We have to take measures of precaution." 567/
cnn.com/videos/tv/2022…
R-166-0.5 communications and R-149BMR command and control vehicles as well as communications relay vehicles. 568/
Possibly, some of the first Eastern Military District equipment arriving near Ukraine. These may be BMP-3 from the Pacific Fleet's 155th Naval Infantry Brigade arriving in Voronezh. (h/t @tom_bullock_ ) 569/
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The train with the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade's BMP-3 are apparently crossing through Shatura, Moscow region, not Voronezh. This indicates it may be headed to Yelnya or Bryansk (i.e. Ukraine's northern border). 571/
Look like BM-27 Uragan MLRS 9T452 transporter-loader vehicles, reportedly in Bryansk (h/t @danvan71). 572/
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Location of that train transporting Buk-M2 air defense systems. 573/
Msta-B battery with R-166-0.5 communications and R-149MA1 unified command and staff vehicles, reportedly in the Belgorod oblast. 574/
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Russia's Permanent Representative to the OSCE said Russia does not intend to hold discussions on its security guarantee proposals in the OSCE, calling it an amorphous structure without international legal status. 576/
tass.ru/politika/13445…
In the spring, Russia deployed 4 large landing ships from the Northern and Baltic Fleets to the Black Sea. Looks as though we may see that repeated. Russia also has landing craft from the Caspian Flotilla in the Black Sea, giving it an enhanced amphibious capability. 577/
The Baltic Fleet’s Korolev, Minsk, and Kaliningrad Project 775 large landing ships entered the North Sea. 578/
t.me/bmpd_cast/10299 ImageImageImage
BTR-82 on fire in Crimea. 579/
t.me/milinfolive/74…
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The 1st Tank Army is conducting command-staff training with Redut-2US, R-166 Artek, P-260, R-419L1, R-419-MP Andromeda-D, R-431-AM, R-149AKSH, and Belozer SATCOM and other communications systems. 581/
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun…
Peskov: "We hope that, as our American counterparts have already mentioned, they will be able to formulate something in writing this week," but added "given the current situation, Russia is certainly thinking about how to ensure its own security," 582/
tass.com/politics/13891… Image
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Looks like units from the VDV's 76th Air Assault Division is on the move with BMD-4M, possibly to Belarus or to the Ukrainian border in Russia. To get to 100 BTGs, Russia will need to mobilize much of the VDV. 584/
The 76th Air Assault Division played a key role in the fighting in Ukraine in 2014-2015. Up until now, the only VDV units near Ukraine were from the 7th Air Assault Division based near Ukraine. Looks like that is about to change. 585/
More VDV equipment on the move somewhere with BMD-4M, BMD-2, BTR-D, and BTR-MDM vehicles. 586/
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Russia has reportedly been sending diplomats and their families home from their embassy and consulates in Ukraine. 590/
nytimes.com/2022/01/17/us/… Image
Looks like another train with equipment from the Pacific Fleet's 155th Naval Infantry Brigade reportedly moving through Krasnoufimsk near Yekaterinburg (uploaded 14 hours ago). This same train was previously filmed. 591/
2S3 Akatsiya 152mm howitzer battalion. 592/
A 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm howitzer and BM-21 Grad MLRS battery, 2 1V198 1V1003 artillery command-observation vehicles, and PRP-4 (and a PRP-3?) reconnaissance vehicles. 593/
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3 1V13 battery fire control center vehicles, 2 PRP-4 reconnaissance vehicles, and two batteries (likely a full battalion) of Msta-S howitzers. 594/
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T-72B3 tanks, BMP-2, and MT-LB. 595/
T-80BV tanks. 596/
BTR-82 and likely a S23 152mm howitzer battalion given the number of 1V13 and 1V14 C2/FDC vehicles. 597/
The US and EU are reportedly no longer considering blocking Russia from SWIFT if they escalate in Ukraine. 598/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
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BM-27 Uragan MLRS reportedly moving through Bryansk on the 15th. 602/
Zvezda video showing Russian equipment preparing to move to Belarus for the upcoming exercise, including Typhoon-K MRAPs, PP-2005 pontoon bridges, BMP-2, MT-LB, among other equipment. They confirm Eastern Military District units are going to Belarus. 603/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202211811…
Deputy Defense Minister Fomin said Russia will deploy a Su-35S fighter squadron, two S-400 battalions, and a Pantsir-S battalion to Belarus as part of the exercise. This is in addition to the ground equipment. 604/
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
The exercise will take part in 2 phases:
-1st lasts until Feb 9 and involves the movement of units.
-2nd from Feb 10-20 involves repelling external aggression in a defensive operation, countering terrorism and protecting the Union State's interests. 605/
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
During the 1st phase, units will deploy and form units in threatened directions, defend important state and military facilities, and protect Belarus' airspace. Obviously, not routine to conduct a joint snap readiness exercise a few months after Zapad. 606/
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
Fomin told the foreign attaches that the exercise will take place at the Domanovsky, Gozhsky, Obuz-Lesnovsky, Brestsky, and Osipovichsky training grounds, as well as the Baranovichi, Luninets, Lida, and Machulishchi airfields in Belarus. 607/
“A situation may arise when the forces and means of the regional grouping will not be enough to guarantee the security of the Union State, and we must be ready to strengthen it." "it will be necessary to involve the state's entire military potential" 608/
tass.com/defense/1389547 Image
Russian equipment arriving in Belarus for the upcoming exercise. 609/
Including excavators. 610/
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Vyacheslav Volodin said, "NATO seeks to occupy Ukraine" during a session at the Duma. 613/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
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Possibly one of the S-400 battalions headed to Belarus. 4 5P85SM2-01 TELs, 55K6 command post, 92N6 Engagement Radar, 96L6 Acquisition Radar (plus 40V6M series mast), 48N6-series missiles, the MZKT-7930 for a 91N6 Acquisition Radar, 1T12 Survey Vehicle.617/
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BM-27 Uragan MLRS. 620/
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IMR-2 engineering vehicle, BMP-2, and excavators. 623/
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Russian stocks take biggest tumble since March 2020
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 ft.com/content/7c8c27… Image
BM-27 Uragan MLRS in Tyumen. 626/
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Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems going through Kaluga. Note, the additional 9M723 ballistic missiles in separate train cars. 628/
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I wonder where these 2-3 Su-34 bomber squadrons deployed to. Maybe to Baltimor Airfield? 629/
edition.cnn.com/2022/01/18/pol… Image
Ukr said Russia has deployed troops from its central and eastern regions to its western border "on a permanent basis." And deployed "stockpiles of ammunition, field hospitals and security services" "confirms the preparation for offensive operations." 630/
edition.cnn.com/2022/01/18/eur… Image
Each Iskander-M brigade typically has 12 9P78-1 launchers which means 36 launchers=3 brigades. I think they likely have 4(+) brigade’s worth including launchers at Kapustin Yar and and from the 41st CAA. We’ve also seen more Iskander-M on the move. 631/
edition.cnn.com/2022/01/18/eur… ImageImage
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1V12 artillery fire control/command and control vehicles, Borisoglebsk 2 electronic warfare system, and a battery (+) 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm howitzers in Chelyabinsk. 634/
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Borisoglebsk-2 EW system, PTS amphibious cargo vehicle, UR-77 MICLIC, IMR-2 engineering vehicle, BMP-2, BTS-4 armored recovery vehicle, BM-21 Grad MLRS, 1V18 artillery battery command vehicle, etc. reportedly in Bashkortostan. 636/
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BM-27 Uragan MLRS. 637/
Over the last two days, Sergei Naryshkin has compared the situation in Ukraine to that of the Nazi occupation, and Maria Zakharova compared Kyiv's actions to the crimes of Anders Breivik, the Norwegian neo-Nazi mass murderer. 638/
tass.ru/politika/13465…
tass.ru/politika/13455…
Dmitry Peskov said the situation in Ukraine is very tense. He blamed that on arms deliveries, training exercises, and flights by NATO aircraft. 639/
tass.ru/politika/13466…
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Among the units moving west from the Eastern Military District, the CIT team identified the 104th/54th Command and Control Brigade, GRU/GU 14th Spetsnaz Brigades, 165th Artillery Brigade, 38th/64th Motorized Rifle Brigades, 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, and military police. 641/
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Gavrilov: "There arrives a moment of truth when the West either accepts our proposals or other ways will be found to safeguard Russia’s security," "it is possible to find a way out to mutually acceptable solutions. We are running out of time. The countdown begins." 645/ Image
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 Source: tass.com/politics/13905…
Ryabkov: "We call upon our US colleagues - we did so last week and will continue doing it - to ultimately deal with concrete actions to strong-arm Kyiv into the rigorous and full-fledged performance of the Minsk Agreements," 647/
tass.com/world/1390401 Image
Ryabkov: "There is a need to stop beefing up the hawkish Ukrainian regime." By supplying arms, instructors, building military bases, "training and exercise activities and many other things posing the direct, the immediate threat to us," 648/
tass.com/world/1390401 Image
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"President Biden has been clear with the Russian President: If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our Allies" 654/
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… Image
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I also don't remember seeing BM-27 Uragan MLRS or other long-range systems as part of Russia's previous deployments to Belarus as part of Zapad 2017 or 2021. 661/
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BMP-2 reportedly in Mazyr, Belarus. 664/
BM-27 Uragan MLRS in Rechytsa, Belarus. 665/
BMP-2 and Ural trucks reportedly in Kalinkovichi, Belarus. 666/
Looks like those BMP-3 and troops from the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade are in Belarus. They’ve traveled more than 7,500km from outside Vladivostok. 667/
t.me/modmilby/10718 ImageImage
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Members from the Eastern Military District’s 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Belarus. 669/
Map of the exercise locations for the upcoming joint Russian-Belarusian exercise taken from Deputy Defense Minister Fomin's briefing to foreign defense attaches. 670/
мультимедиа.минобороны.рф/multimedia/pho… Image
R-149MA1 command-staff and R-166-0.5 communications vehicle among other communications vehicles. 671/
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Ryabkov yesterday said a temporary moratorium on NATO expansion isn't acceptable. Russia demands legally-binding contractual guarantee of no further expansion from both NATO and the US. 673/
tass.ru/politika/13468…
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Russia deployed the largest naval and amphibious grouping to the Black Sea in April since the fall of the Soviet Union with 4 large landing ships from the Northern and Baltic Fleets. It appears they're about to deploy even more this time. 675/
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Looks like there are still a number of Msta-S howitzers, BTRs, BMPs, and tanks at the Maslovka train station in Voronezh. 677/
The Russian MoD said an Iskander-M brigade from Krasnodar, either the 1st or 47th Missile Brigade, will conduct a live-fire exercise at Kapustin Yar. 678/
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
BM-27 Uragan MLRS in Tatarstan. 679/
Dan is doing a great job tracking the movement of Russian military equipment. 680/
GAZ-3344-20 Aleut, Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare systems, BMP-2, and probably T-72B3 tanks moving through Krasnoyarsk. We're still seeing videos of more equipment being loaded onto trains in the Far East and Siberia. More is coming. 681/
ImageImageImageImage
682/
Buk-M1-2 air defense battalion. 9S470M1 command post vehicle, six 9A310M1-2 TELAR, 9S18M1 Acquisition Radar, three 9A39M1 Transporter Erector Launcher/Transloader. 683/
ImageImageImageImage
684/
The Russian MoD said the two S-400 battalions that are headed for Belarus have been loaded onto trains in Khabarovsk. We previously saw footage of them preparing to be moved via rail. 685/
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
Image
686/
Video of one of the S-400 battalions being loaded onto a train in Khabarovsk destined for Belarus. This was possibly filmed 3 or more days ago. 687/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202212184…
688/
Sergei Lavrov said Russia's security guarantees/demands include the removal of NATO forces and equipment from Bulgaria and Romania, which both joined NATO after 1997. 689/
ria.ru/20220121/bezop…
“They have enough on the border in terms of quantity and quality and capability to conduct a range of activities. That could be as small as a military intimidation, a raid, a strike [or] all the way up to more muscular options,” 690/
ft.com/content/cdd4c0… Image
Ryabkov said Russia isn’t afraid of anyone, even the US. 691/
t.me/rian_ru/140979
It seems Russia has deployed Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems to Belarus as well. I think the deployment of Iskanders and S-400 to Belarus is more about NATO, than Ukraine. 692/
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov: “We are not afraid of anyone, even not of the US” 693/
t.me/rian_ru/140982
After Russian officials mentioned possible Russian military deployments or bases in Cuba or Venezuela as a response to NATO, Peskov said the topic of Russian military bases did not come up in Putin's conversation with Maduro today. 694/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
695/
696/
Video of Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems arriving in Belarus. 697/
I could be wrong but these look like BMD-2 armored vehicles in service with VDV units. 698/
699/
700/
Borisoglebsk-2 EW system, two ZSU-23-4 Shilkas, Barnaul-T air defense C2, 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm howitzers, BMP-2, BREM-1, etc. 701/
ImageImageImageImage
702/
703/
A few days after British Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace invited Sergei Shoigu for a meeting in the UK, Sergei Shoigu has invited Wallace to meet with him in Moscow. 704/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
705/
706/
Russian 2S3 152mm howitzers arrived at the Brest-Yuzhny train station in Belarus. 707/
t.me/modmilby/10755 ImageImageImageImage
708/
709/
Tigr vehicles in Arctic camouflage with Ural trucks in Lipetsk. 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade? 710/
Image
711/
Looks like multiple T-72B tank companies in Gomel. 712/
ImageImage
713/
Presumably, one of the S-400 battalions (though with the 30K6A regimental-level command equipment) headed to Belarus. 8 5P85SM2-01 TELs, 91N6A acquisition and battle management radar, 55K6A command post, 40V6MD radar masts, and 92N6A engagement radar. 714/
ImageImageImageImage
In addition to the BTGs and S-400 battalions, the Su-35S squadron headed to Belarus is also coming from the Eastern Military District. Looks like one of the 2 Su-35S squadrons from the 23rd Fighter Aviation Regiment based in Komsomolsk-on-Amur. 715/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202212251…
Bridging and engineering equipment in the Jewish Autonomous Region from 4 days ago. Looks like a PP-2005 pontoon bridging company with 16 links, 4 BMK-250 (or 225) towing boats, 2 PTS-2 amphibious vehicles, REM-KL, IMR-2, UR-77 MICLIC, and BAT-2. 716/
ImageImageImageImage
Train with a number of Tigr-M vehicles, including in Arctic camo, Typhoon-K MRAPs, UR-77 MICLIC, IMR-2/3 engineering vehicles, etc. Possibly from the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade, though the Typhoon-K may indicate a GRU/GU spetsnaz brigade. 717/
ImageImageImage
P-260T Redut-2US multi-purpose mobile communication complexes on the move in Belarus and Russia. 718/
tiktok.com/@sega_spirik/v…
tiktok.com/@rsavkin1/vide… ImageImageImage
719/
720/
Starting to see VDV equipment on the move. 1V119 Rheostat fire control vehicle for Nona-S batteries, PRP-4 artillery recon vehicle, BMD-2, and tanks reportedly passing through Smolensk near the border with Belarus. 721/
ImageImage
722/
Video reportedly from Irkutsk with VDV equipment, which indicates it is from the VDV's 83rd Air Assault Brigade from Ussuriysk. BMD-2, BTR-D, Nona-S mortar, Infauna and Leer-2 EW systems, R-149DA command post vehicle, etc. 723/
Looks like more equipment from the 4th Tank Division arriving at Voronezh’s Maslovka train station. T-80U tanks, Msta-S howitzers, MTU-72 bridgelayers. 724/
2S1 Gvozdika 122mm howitzers and BM-21 Grad MLRS in Smolensk. 725/
1B119 Rheostat fire control vehicles, Nona-S mortar battery, BMP-3, MT-LB, and T-80BV tanks from the Pacific Fleet's 155th Naval Infantry Brigade arriving in Belarus. 726/
ImageImageImageImage
8 2S7M Malka 203mm heavy artillery pieces, likely either from the 120th or 165th artillery brigades. These are district or army- level assets, and are very effective at penetrating fortified positions and bunkers along with 2S4 Tyulpan heavy mortars. 727/
More servicemen and BMP-3 and T-80BV tanks from the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade arriving in Belarus. 728/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
t.me/modmilby/10794 ImageImageImageImage
Possibly a Smerch MLRS 9T234-2 transporter-loader in Tver. (h/t @Mortis_Banned) 729/
Image
T-72B and BMP-2. 730/
Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems arriving in Belarus two days ago. 731/
732/
733/
734/
735/
More Russian troops arriving in Belarus with BMP-2. 736/
t.me/modmilby/10808 ImageImageImageImage
Video reportedly from Krasnoyarsk with Osa-AKM air defense systems. Four 9A33BM TELAR, two 9T217B Transporter-Transloaders, BREM-1, BTS-4 armored recovery vehicle, Tigrs, tank tractors, etc. 737/

ImageImageImageImage
Typhoon-K MRAPs, UR-77 MICLICs, and IMR-3 engineering vehicles in Chita presumably from an assault-sapper unit. 738/
ImageImageImage
739/
Eastern Military District's 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade's T-80BVM tanks in Belarus. 740/
Pantsir-S battery on the move, presumably towards Belarus. 741/
ImageImageImage
742/
S-300 or S-400 48N6-series missiles being transported in Samara. I didn't see that many extra missiles loaded onto the S-400 battalion train headed from the Eastern Military District to Belarus. 743/
Msta-S howitzers. 744/
R-149MA1 command vehicle, BTS-4 armored recovery vehicles, and BTR-82 in Tyumen. 745/
ImageImageImage
746/
747/
Leer-2 EW system. 748/
Image
749/
"President Biden is considering deploying several thousand U.S. troops, as well as warships and aircraft, to NATO allies in the Baltics and Eastern Europe," 750/
nytimes.com/2022/01/23/us/… Image
751/
BM-27 Uragan MLRS 9T452 transporter-loader vehicles reportedly in Orsha. 752/
Image
MZKT-7415 and MAZ-537 tank transporters. 753/
ImageImage
754/
A number of Tigr-M vehicles. 755/
ImageImage
T-80BVM tanks, presumably from the Eastern Military District's 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade, in Kamenka. 756/
757/
758/
NATO announced it is sending ships and jets to enhance deterrence and defense in eastern Europe. Some of these moves were previously announced, such as the Netherlands' decision to send two F-35 fighters to Bulgaria. 759/
nato.int/cps/en/natohq/… ImageImage
BMP-3 in Krasnodar, which just had a heavy snowfall. 760/
Image
761/

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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee Profile picture
May 12
Looks like Sergei Shoigu is being replaced. Putin has nominated Andrei Belousov as the next Minister of Defense.
tass.ru/politika/20775…
Shoigu will be replacing Nikolai Patrushev as Secretary of the Security Council. 2/

tass.ru/politika/20775…
tass.ru/politika/20775…
Peskov said that Gerasimov will remain as Chief of the General Staff and Patrushev will be transferred to another position that will be named later. 3/
t.me/tass_agency/24…
Image
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
May 3
When we evaluate how weapons perform, it is important to note the conditions in which they operate. Abrams were committed into the fight this winter at a time when Ukraine had a lack of infantry as well as mines, ATGMs, air defense, and artillery ammunition. This may seem bizarre from the outside, but Ukraine often employs tanks in a manner to compensate for a lack of infantry or ammunition for other systems because those are the conditions they face.
If you don't have enough artillery or ATGM ammunition, you may bring up a tank or Bradley to engage Russian armor or infantry instead. This could involve placing an Abrams or Bradley at greater risk than you would like, but these are the organic assets that the 47th Mechanized Brigade had, and they come with a different supply of ammunition.
All weapons have vulnerabilities, and you mitigate those vulnerabilities through combined arms. When several of those arms are weaker (e.g. infantry, artillery, air defense), because of attrition or a lack of ammunition, others will be more vulnerable as well.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 26
Some thoughts about the supplemental bill. This is good news, but it will primarily help Ukraine defend in 2024 and into 2025. Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and it doesn't fix all of Ukraine's issues. It should be seen as one part of a long-term strategy.
Ukraine has had three main problems since Russia seized the initiative in October: ammunition, manpower, and fortifications. Ukraine is making progress building fortifications and multiple defensive lines, but defenses on many of the key parts of the front are still underdeveloped, contributing to Russian advances. 2/
The bill and first PDA aid package announced this week will provide a quick boost to Ukraine's defenses. But it is important to keep in mind that the limitations aren't just appropriated funds but also production capacity and size of stockpiles. Greater artillery ammunition deliveries will help reduce Russia's 5-6:1 artillery advantage, but it will not give Ukraine parity. 3/
Read 25 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 21
Russian sources are saying that Ukraine is dropping caltrops on roads to damage their vehicles' wheels. When the vehicles stop, they are then targeted by artillery or FPVs.
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…

Image
Image
Video from Madyar showing them being dropped from UAVs. 2/
t.me/robert_magyar/…
From the beginning of the full-scale invasion. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 18
Video of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating close to Chasiv Yar. A clear sign of a lack of Ukrainian air defense ammunition.

t.me/milinfolive/12…
t.me/RVvoenkor/66374
Videos posted over the past ten days by a Russian Telegram channel associated with the VDV’s 106th Airborne Division of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating in the Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar area. 2/



t.me/vdd98/3092
t.me/vdd98/3165
t.me/vdd98/3131
t.me/vdd98/3103
Videos from the past two weeks showing reported Russian FAB-250 and FAB-1500 UMPK, UK RBP Grom, and artillery or S-8 strikes in the Chasiv Yar area. 3/





t.me/vdd98/3089
t.me/vdd98/3170
t.me/vdd98/3006
t.me/vdd98/3075
t.me/vdd98/3062
t.me/vdd98/3053
Read 6 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 30
Both Russian UGVs were struck by FPVs from Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade.
t.me/brygada47/613

2/
3/
Read 5 tweets

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