Faith or Fear Thread -- 2022 in key swing states and the determination of democracy as we know it. @JoeTrippi @LincolnWatchman @ProjectLincoln @reedgalen @stuartpstevens @TheRickWilson @jefftimmer
There will be a tendency to focus on the national elections in 22, those for the House and Senate. While they are certainly critically important, there are state races that will have a far greater impact on the outcome in 2024 of our democracy's survival as we know it.
Governor and AG races in WI, MI, and PA, and to a slightly lesser extent in GA, AZ, and OH will be critically important. Without divided government to serve as a check in these states, we are headed for a disaster in 2024.
Thus, when the leading Republican candidate for governor in Wisconsin makes comments to activists like those cited today in the @journalsentinel from an event in Door Country, we should all be concerned. jsonline.com/story/news/pol…
What is striking is @RebeccaforReal appears to have known what she was saying wasn't right. She didn't want it recorded so "democrats could use it." (or in my case a former GOP) The truth is she didn't want it public because while she thinks she needs to say it for a primary.
She didn't want it recorded because she realizes how damaging such a statement would be for winning the general election. A majority of people in Wisconsin are pro-democracy and pretty proud of their free and fair election tradition.
If we think of democracy as a bell curve most of our governance & politics fall either into consensus or partisan. Governance in a democracy is win-win which comes from consensus.
Elections are zero-sum partisan (only one wins) but our system ensures win-win through regular free & fair elections to create consensus through time. I consent to be governed by those I disagree with, knowing I will have the opportunity to govern in the future.
Think about big issues we have confronted in the past. Most of them were consensus-driven or partisan driven to consensus -- the Cold War, our National Debt, Judicial Nominations, Welfare Reform or the conduct of elections.
Less normal, but not outside are the occasional that are perceived as extreme but built around grievances that are real. Think Universal Suffrage, the Civil Rights Movement, the New Deal like Social Security, (I would argue the Reagan Revolution), or Marriage Equality.
Those with power deemed as extreme each of those at the outset yet all became a norm for the better (I know my friends on the left see the Reagan Revolution differently as will those on the right with parts of the New Deal- I get it).
What happens rarely when a democracy is sick, is extremism based on false or contrived grievances takes hold. Extremism derived from partisanship gone wrong. Those moments when answers to Psychological Distress take hold through Cognitively Simplistic answers.
This is when Overconfidence in one group's contrived grievances and the simplistic solutions accepted as truths manifest in Intolerance. The more of this radicalization you see the more terminal the state of a democracy's health.
A credible candidate for Governor of a state calling for mercenaries to help get elected is such a state of radicalization. It can lead to the next state of violence. In fact, we have already seen that happen which is what makes such pronouncements so dangerous.
Our Democracy depends not only on the documents upon which we are founded but equally on political norms by which we conduct body politic. Today, those norms are failing. The choice of Cognitively Simplistic answers by irresponsible politicians leads to radicalization & violence
The 2022 elections will matter more than any since the period prior to the Civil War. They will be the next most important after 2024. Yet, if we don't get them right by creating consequences for those pushing towards the abyss of radicalization in 22, 2024 may be predetermined.
This reality, more important than policies or partisanship, must be the litmus test by which each of us makes our choices on the federal level, but equally on the state & local levels. You can't have the coalition without the insanity. Both ways is no longer an option..

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More from @trygveolson

28 Oct
Faith or Fear Thread – WTF? @TuckerCarlson’s new promo video broken down and why it is so dangerous. @JoeTrippi @reedgalen @stuartpstevens @TheRickWilson @SteveSchmidtSES @LincolnWatchman @ProjectLincoln @jefftimmer
Even though I have worked in some of the most challenging non-democratic, autocratic, and illiberal places around the world, @TuckerCarlson & @FoxNews promo this morning left me stunned. Thus, I am going to break it down based on tactics non-democratic forces use to gain power.
First some background. We must decide if we are a nation of Faith in Each Other or one where Fear is imposed upon one another. When we examine public discourse, we must ask is the material or rhetoric is intended towards solutions (faith) or designed to divide through fear. Image
Read 25 tweets
6 Oct
This is a video of anti-vax people chasing a mom & child down a street for wearing masks. It is reprehensible, but let's talk about what is really going on here beyond the obvious. @reedgalen @LincolnWatchman @ProjectLincoln @TheRickWilson @JoeTrippi

There are four escalating levels from a psychological standpoint for those who become extremists. The first is Psychological Distress. In this case, there is a pandemic & "They are afraid both of what it means and how it is affecting their lives negatively."
The pandemic affects everyone's life on our planet. That is a big deal -- a rare moment in the history of humankind. One up there with World Wars & other pandemics. Individually it puts our insignificance as humans at the forefront of our minds. We want answers & solutions.
Read 21 tweets
2 Oct
Faith or Fear: Democracy is a Choice We Each Make

We often think of democracy as a set of rules spelled out in documents—the significant papers like the Constitution, Laws books, or Publications of Rules and Regulations.
Perhaps when you think about democracy, the top of mind are its institutions, the norms by which it operates, or elections determining who holds power.
Most times, democracy might be about the rights all hold in a democratic society–freedom of the press, due process, the right to free speech or assembly.
Read 24 tweets
23 Sep
FAITH OR FEAR THREAD:
Political Risk, the Debt Ceiling Increase, & Political Zero-Sum's Damage to All of Us

With each passing day, October and the next mid-term elections are growing closer.

@reedgalen @stuartpstevens @TheRickWilson @ProjectLincoln @LincolnWatchman @JoeTrippi
So too, as has been the case now for nearly two decades, is the growing danger of zero-sum dysfunctional partisan extremism causing a massive crisis. A self-inflicted wound, through an irresponsible lack of leadership, once again changing our nation.
Sovereign Debt is typically the domain of Wall Street Bankers and Credit Rating Agencies focusing on third world nations. Places we don't think about being similar to us, as the world's largest economy, reserve currency, and the birthplace of democracy.

washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
Read 22 tweets
20 Sep
Monday Illiberal Tactic’s Thread

The Russian Duma “elections” got me thinking.

@reedgalen @ProjectLincoln @stuartpstevens @JoeTrippi @TheRickWilson @LincolnWatchman @SteveSchmidtSES
I haven’t done a thread about how conspiracy theories work. Russians are good at such things. The term they use is Lzohnay Informatsiya – False Information with a Purpose. If you work in democracy-building circles in Eurasia long enough, someone will bring it up.
It isn’t as though Russians invented conspiracies. In the Middle Ages, there were those of sorcery & magic. The Protocols of Zion are 100's of years old. That said, Russians are good at them, and Lzohnay Informatsiya does a great job explaining how they function.
Read 17 tweets
17 Sep
FAITH OR FEAR THREAD
For two decades I worked with those fighting for democracy & against the most repressive non-democratic forces globally. Today, that battle has come home.
@reedgalen @TheRickWilson @SteveSchmidtSES @JoeTrippi @LincolnWatchman @stuartpstevens @ProjectLincoln
My presentations on democracy began with a simple premise. All nations are governed by faith through ballot boxes or in the streets by fear. Whether the nation is a member of the community of democracies, one taking life, or under autocratic rule, the starting point is the same.
This past week has shown many instances of the rising fear in America – the willingness to use the six tactics all non-democratic actors deploy to achieve their aim: to gain and then maintain power.
Read 25 tweets

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