Thread by @davesgas

Government's figures on emissions from Land Use sector unreliable - summarised here in emissions section - more analysis of government figures follow thread @simonahac independentaustralia.net/politics/polit…

The sector of Land Use and Change (LULUCF) went from being the second biggest emitter in 2001 (91 MtCO2e) to a net sink in 2020 (-18 MtCO2e) an incredible decrease of over 100 MtCO2e.

The biggest emitter in this sector is land-clearing, Qld figures show strongest decline between 2007-12, but a rise after this. NSW figures also show a spike from 2016.

But government data on emissions from land clearing (forest converted to other uses) do not reflect this trend with a steady decline since 2013 (when LNP took government)

Sequestration overtook emissions in this sector due to gains in the increase in regrowth and through the 'forest land remaining forest' sub-sector at the same time the LNP took Government.

In fact the 'remaining forest' sub-sector has experienced loss as a carbon sink between 2001 and 2020 from declining cover from fires, forestry and clearing from mining, yet became a significant sink after 2012. Without this, the LULUCF sector would not be a net sink.

The 'cropland' sub-sector as remained more or less neutral in the last 20 years, with little or no recorded carbon sequestration, yet government is banking on this sector being a net sink in future.

The 'grassland, wetland and settlement' sub-sector is a composite and difficult to ascertain trends, but has remained more or less neutral in the last twenty years.

Despite current Government rhetoric, forecasts in 2020 state the LULUCF sector will experience a increase in emissions in 2030 when it will be -5 MtCO2e, a fall of 13MtCO2e in the next 10 years.

In last years forecast, the Government predicted that, "Emissions to 2030 are projected to grow 4% above 2020 levels, driven by higher emissions from LNG, transport, a declining forest sink ... and growth in agricultural activity after a return to average seasonal conditions."

In other words, the Government as late as last year could not see how the LULUCF sector could contribute to lowering emissions, so how can they now? What has changed?