Fun fact: before I went full codeslinger, I was training to work for The Government, specifically govt-orchestrated disaster preparedness.
Part of the training, as you can imagine, was epidemic preparedness. For example, we ran a response simulation for an outbreak in NYC.
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Part of the training, as you can imagine, was epidemic preparedness. For example, we ran a response simulation for an outbreak in NYC.
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https://twitter.com/acnewsitics/status/1453258783426334722
This was in 2011.
So, organizers try to include all the realistic contingencies in these simulations. Otherwise the simulation is useless for preparing people to act under pressure.
As of 2021, all the simulations I participated in while studying have been shelved.
Why?
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So, organizers try to include all the realistic contingencies in these simulations. Otherwise the simulation is useless for preparing people to act under pressure.
As of 2021, all the simulations I participated in while studying have been shelved.
Why?
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Because all of those simulations fail to account for an organized effort from a reasonably large, highly connected portion of the population to resist epidemic response measures.
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Of course, we assume some noncompliance, and even some efforts to spread noncompliance. That has happened in many, even most, historical epidemic responses.
But this (COVID) is many simulation organizers' first experience with...
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But this (COVID) is many simulation organizers' first experience with...
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...online efforts to orchestrate formally oriented institutions (this term means "institutions that do not rely on people having preexisting personal relationships to work together on something")...
...around getting people to not get vaccinated or not wear masks.
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...around getting people to not get vaccinated or not wear masks.
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This isn't "John threw a fit at the rotary club" or "Nina the matriarch warned her family and friends not to get jabbed."
The sophistication of the COVID disinformation campaign is different, and bigger, than those (expected) occurrences.
It's rendering our sims obsolete.
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The sophistication of the COVID disinformation campaign is different, and bigger, than those (expected) occurrences.
It's rendering our sims obsolete.
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The upshot is, ten years from NOW, I expect that epidemic response simulations will have to include this contingency.
Hopefully by then we've figured out some ways to successfully address it, but from where I'm standing it seems as insidious as the pathogens themselves.
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Hopefully by then we've figured out some ways to successfully address it, but from where I'm standing it seems as insidious as the pathogens themselves.
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