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Derek Thompson Profile picture
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27 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The gap between the "real" vs "observed" economy is an interesting recent theme

2017: Democratic econ confidence dips (but things are fine!)
Late 2020: GOP confidence dips (but things are getting better!)
Today: Consumer sentiment in the dumps (but the economy's kinda booming!)
I don't want to overplay the boominess of the economy. Gas prices are up, the supply chain's a mess, buying a car is a nightmare, etc.

What's interesting, however, is that personal finances are in good shape, while consumers expectations are at *decade lows*
"... a complete rout of net favorable views of buying conditions: household durables fell to the lowest level since 1980, vehicles fell to the lowest level since 1974, and homes to the lowest level since 1982 ... all due to complaints about high prices"

data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?d…
Having thought about this a bit, I think it's more accurate to say that between 2016-2021, there was a huge left-vs-right gap in economic outlook and today there's a new big gap between "personal finances" (great) and "buying conditions" (yikes)

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More from @DKThomp

Derek Thompson Profile picture
23 Oct
Between the 1970s and 1990s, the share of sequels in Hollywood didn't change.

Since 1999, it's basically been more sequels, remakes, and adaptations every year.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 1999?
1. Probably the smartest version of the "in the long run, everything is downstream of technology" argument

2. The rise of prestige TV

The 1990s happened to be when cable TV neared its financial apex, drew in big-time showrunners whose hits had a flywheel effect that, over time, sucked original stories to the smaller screen

Read 5 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
15 Oct
I wrote about the great acceleration of the Great Resignation—and why it matters.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Crises leave unpredictable marks on history. We may look back at the pandemic as a long-term, fundamental shift in Americans’ attitudes toward work.
Americans have a weird relationship with "quitting."

It sounds like something for losers and loafers. But it's an expression of optimism.

The mid-20th century—which we imagine as some golden age of company men with 40-year careers—had more quitting!

Great Resignation is one of several Great R-words shaping the economy.

- Great Reset = ppl reducing the role of work in their life

- Great Reshuffling = more migration + business creation

- Great Rudeness = customers behaving like little shits, motivating leisure-sector quits
Read 5 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
9 Oct
Fascinating article on why the working class might not be as enthusiastic about universal benefits as elite policy ppl hope.

nytimes.com/2021/09/14/opi…

It's one article, based on one report, but it's churning some thoughts I just wanna submit for for public scrutiny.
When I wrote my workism essay, I defined it as a *disproportionately elite* notion that work ought to be the centerpiece of our identity, and life.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Recently there's been a movement to fight workism with, eg, UBI, 4-day workweeks, anti-burnout policies
What if it's the ideology of the anti-workists that's the actually elite ideology?

What if the working class + MC immigrants are way more workist than we (or, I) assumed? And their resistance to universal programs stems from a deep belief that policy SHOULD revolve around work?
Read 5 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
1 Oct
This sounds like “TamiFlu for COVID, but it actually works.”

It would be an absolute game-changer.
Some analysis and caveats from @PeterHotez
So many replies like this. Ugh.

Look, millions of ppl aren't going to get vaxx'd, period, no matter how many articles and pods and tweets we all do about it.

They're gonna get COVID. And I don't want them to die. That's why it would be a game changer!

Read 5 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
30 Sep
There is a fandom faction within both parties that says a lot about their forking paths

Republicans idolize conspiratorial, institution-smashing outsiders, while many Democrats make bobbleheads from bureaucratic heroes, or within-the-system saviors

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
My point isn't that these distinct tastes for political heroes are equivalent, or equally rational.

But there is a difference here that clearly exists, which says something important, I think, about education polarization, trust in institutions, and baseline paranoia re: elites.
I don't think everything is downstream of education polarization, but the GOP Outsider Savior vs. Democratic Insider Hero dynamic definitely is.

If, at a gut level, you just trust advanced-degree leaders of traditional institutions, you're gonna fish in that pond for heroes.
Read 4 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
22 Sep
What's the best argument you've read against the Biden vaccine quasi-mandate?

I'm strongly supportive of the vaccine (obv), lightly supportive of the WH's employer mandate/testing policy, and have now read several unpersuasive-to-me cases against the policy.
States have for decades required immunizations for public education (etc), but suddenly it's The Beginning of Tyranny for the state to make our employment by big firms contingent on vaccination?

That's not v persuasive to me.

"Vaccine mandates will trigger a damaging backlash" is possible, but we don't know for sure. It's a guess.

But we have polling data that clearly identifies a group ppl who say they will get vaccinated if it's required.

Read 6 tweets

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