Take a break from earnings.

Here I’ll highlight some companies that did massive repurchases over time.

Friendly reminder to account for SBC and % of mkt cap when calling any share-repo “massive” and best to look long term.

Let’s take a look at some real cannibals

🧵👇
Moody’s $MCO

A classic capital light compounder and one of the best businesses around. Shares outstanding are down 41% in 20 years.
Verisign $VRSN

Boring company nobody has heard of that operates domain name registry for the internet, like .com

shares outstanding down 58%
$ALLY My favorite Online Bank

Shares outstanding are down 28% in FIVE years

…and just getting started
AerCap $AER is an interesting one…

that big pop was issuing shares for a big acquisition (ILFC), issued >book and bought back shares subsequently below book (40% of them)

Pt. II: They’re now doing the exact same thing to buy GECAS and fully expect them to buyback shares after
$JPM Jamie has been disciplined on buybacks over the years, slow and steady does it.

-25% over last 10 years
$CHTR FinTwit favorite is a master in the buyback game, and quite vocal about it.

Issued shares to buy TWC, now buying back shares non-stop: -32% last 5 years and no signs of slowing down
$AAPL gotta include this one as they got serious about capital allocation

You can thank Tim Cook of course, but also Carl Icahn and Buffett

Shares outstanding down 38%
$AZO AutoZone deserves a place in the throne…

shares are down 81% over the last 20 years. Yes you read that right.

Also, yes this is a log-scale.

But they actually get second place.
The winner is saved for last: Teledyne of the 70s (still around today and a great company!)

Henry Singleton was the buyback GOAT. Between 1972-84 he tendered shares aggressively when the price fell to single digit PE ratios.

He ended up buying back OVER 90% of them in 12 years.
Which stocks would you add to the list?

What’s your favorite buyback story going forward? Bonus points if it’s not FAANMG.

I think $BRK will be interesting and certainly $ALLY

(As promised, cc @DadInvest)

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More from @SleepwellCap

27 Oct
$SPOT Q3:

-MAU 381mm (+19% y/y, high end of guide)
-Premium 172mm (+19% y/y, midpoint of guide)
-Rev +26% (fx adj)
-Ad-Supported revs up 75% (13% of revs)
-Gross margin 26.7% (up 200bps y/y,above guide)
-ARPU up y/y from price increases
-FCF of 99mm EUR

More details to follow.
This is a good print. Let’s dive in.

MAUs DD growth across all regions, back to trend (after 2Q of misses)

Strength in RoW, specifically India, Philippines, Indonesia. Also called South Korea, Bangladesh, Pakistan.

Just in case These are huge population countries.
Premium subs growth strong and in-line with trend. Helped by various partnerships with telcos, hardware providers and financial institutions.

Churn down q/q and up y/y (historic low, tough comp). Still expects churn to be down for the full year
Read 21 tweets
26 Oct
My views on $FB and why I’m not invested:

Is it “cheap”? Yes, by many measures. It’s an incredible business, one of the best in the world.

But I disagree with most adjustments people make (cash, core/ex blah earnings, WA, growth capex)

I don’t value it that way. Why?

1/n 🧵
As a shareholder you either want cash flows back quickly and in size, or be very patient and get a big payday down the line in return.

Even though you can slice the numbers to make $FB look really cheap, you’re not seeing many of those earnings returned to you

Let’s take a look
It trades at a ~3% (30x) ‘22 FCF yield — cash flow, minus guided capex, adj for SBC; which is roughly equal to buyback minus SBC. Call it ~$30b (75-31-12)

As a shareholder that’s the only cash you’re seeing TODAY. You can’t buy it for that reason, you have to expect a big payday
Read 6 tweets
25 Oct
$FB revenues up a cool 35% y/y
Total expenses up 39%
EBIT 36% vs 37% y/y

New reporting segments
FoA: Family of Apps (fb/ig/wa)
FRL: Facebook Reality Labs (ar/vr software, hardware, content)

Getting serious about the Metaverse.
Let’s try to put all these tech buybacks in context by netting out SBC please.

$FB

$50B buyback announced
$10B SBC
$40B adjusted buyback (~4% of s/o)
How is it that $FB plans to spend $30+B in Capex in 2022 from a ~$140B revenue base when $GOOG spent $22B last year on $183B of revenues? I’d think FB was lower given they’re not a hyperscale cloud provider

What makes it so capital intensive?
Read 4 tweets
25 Oct
Transformation at $ROP expected to keep going.

Would not be surprised if this is a pure software company in ~5 years (~60% today with recent divestitures)

Adding fmr $DHR CEO to the board is a fantastic move who will help on new acquisitions & also brings spinoffs to the table
How the Board operates in $ROP
$ROP on software valuations, what they look for and what they will be paying.

~18x EBITDA is a good deal for a very high quality business (equiv to low 20s fcf)

They just sold ~$3B of industrial companies for 20x EBITDA (more capex, wc intensive, cyclical and lower growth)
Read 4 tweets
18 Jul
A few highlights from a Global Music Report by @MusicAlly

Mexico:
-Over 60% of all Mexican label revenue came directly from Spotify
-The World’s streaming mecca, according to Spotify
-20mm people use a streaming service, while 80mm people own a smartphone (& quickly growing)
Brazil:

Amazon Music passed Deezer to become the second DSP in number of subscribers, behind Spotify, which
has 61% of total subscribers and contributed 45% of all Brazilian recorded music revenues in 2019.

Don’t have a very big Apple hardware user base in the country
Brazil (cont.)

Paid streaming accounted for almost three quarters of recorded music revenues in the region

Overall, Brazilians became more aware of the benefits of music streaming services, and started adopting and using it more.
Read 54 tweets

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