Henry Gao Profile picture
Oct 28, 2021 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
State Council Info Office held a special press con today on China's 8th TPR:
scio.gov.cn/xwfbh/xwbfbh/w…
What are the hot issues from Member's 2562 questions?
Under WTO agreements:
China's implementation of WTO TFA;
consistency of its Cyberseucity law with GATS;
disclosure of info in IPR cases as per TRIPS requirements.
Questions beyond WTO rules:
China to further open up the market, relax restrictions on foreign investment access, reduce the negative list of foreign investment, and promote the innovation of the pilot free trade zone system to be replicated and promoted throughout the country.
There were also concerns on China's dual circulation strategy and forced tech transfer.
China on subsidies:
1. agricultural subsidies must be discussed simultaneously with industrial subsidies
2. discuss tightening trade remedy disciplines such as anti-subsidy and anti-dumping to solve the current abuse of trade remedy measures
3. restoring non-actionable subsidies
On developing country status:
China didn't get SDT in its accession, and have assumed obligations beyond normally required of developing countries since becoming a member, like in TFA & ITA, as I discussed with @WeihuanZhou at
theconversation.com/myth-busted-ch…
On investment restriction:
The issue is beyond WTO but China is willing to deal with this issue through FTAs and BITs. For example, China has filed application to join the CPTPP. CPTPP has high standards for investment, and China is willing to deal with it through these channels.
Again, this confirms my observation in this op-ed with @WeihuanZhou last month, that China is serious about its CPTPP application and is willing to make meaningful concessions to get in.
asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-…
On fisheries subsidies:
China issued document in May removing fuel subsidies.
On criticisms on China's trade policy during the TPR:
There are 2 types of comments:
1. those covered by WTO rules, which China will take seriously and fulfill them,
2. those beyond WTO rules, which are unfair, unreasonable, and unacceptable for China.
On China's alleged non-market trade practice and gov't intervention which resulted in overcapacity and market distortion:
Need to go back to the basics. What is the basics? It is China's Constitution, which states in Article 15 that China implements a socialist market economy.
From 2018 to 2020, China has compressed 150 million tons of crude steel production capacity. Now China’s crude steel capacity utilization rate is more than 80%, and the aluminum industry capacity utilization rate is more than 85%, so there is no overcapacity in these 2 industries
On WTO Reform:
1. It must not only resolve traditional issues and historical debts, but also formulate rules on some new issues and realize the modernization of rules.
More specifically, ag subsidy, public stockholding, e-commerce, investment facilitation, fisheries etc.
2. Bring back the AB, as @gregorycshaffer & I discussed here:
thehill.com/opinion/intern…
3. On issues like e-commerce, China hold an open attitude and adopt the joint declaration initiative. Some members first reach an agreement, i.e., plurilateral agreement to resolve some specific regulatory issues in these areas. Later other Members can join.

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More from @henrysgao

May 9
The US-UK trade deal is out—and it confirms most of my predictions in my @commonplc piece “The Art of a Trade Deal” 4 weeks ago:

1. Tariffs: The 10% tariff remains in place for now, but contrary to some interpretations, this doesn’t mean the UK failed to negotiate it down. The Image
Agreement explicitly states that both sides will enter negotiations to reduce tariff rates. As I noted, the likely landing point is around the US’s 3.4% rate-if the UK is willing to match it.

2. Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs): Just as I anticipated, NTBs is central to the next phase Image
For a developed country like the UK, the focus is on overregulation—technical barriers to trade, SPS measures, and similar restrictions—all explicitly referenced in the Agreement.

3. Supply Chains: I flagged this as a key issue, and the Agreement confirms it. It addresses supply Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 10
A New BRI on the Horizon?

Today’s front page of People’s Daily features the Central Peripheral Work Conference—a major development, given this is only the second such meeting in the PRC’s 76-year history.

The first such meeting was in Oct 2013, when Xi launched the BRI, which Image
was elevated to a national strategy at the 3rd Plenum of the 18th CCP Central Committee held the following month.

As I argued in this @trade_review article 3 years ago, the BRI was China’s strategic response to US containment through the TPP, where the
cambridge.org/core/journals/…Image
@trade_review US tried to “make sure the US—and not countries like China—is the one writing this century’s rules for the world’s economy.”

But the TPP was killed.

Now, as @realDonaldTrump tries to rewrite the rules of global trade through the Reciprocal Tariff Policy, China is striking back.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 9
China today released a white paper titled “China's Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic, Trade Relations.”

No, it’s not about setting the record straight as it claims.

It’s a retaliation wishlist—and a catalog of Beijing’s deepest trade fears. Image
1. Retaliation List:
• Banning U.S. services exports
• Halting IP protection for U.S. companies
• Imposing forced tech transfers
• Banning U.S. food and agricultural products
• Limiting access to China’s financial markets
• Devaluing the RMB Image
2. Fear List:
• Repeal of PNTR status
• Trade and investment restrictions on national security grounds
• Expanded export controls
• Section 301 tariffs
• Section 232 investigations
• Use of trade remedy tools (AD/CVD)
• Ending the de minimis exemption
• Reciprocal tariffs Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 8
Why did Trump impose tariffs on Heard & McDonald Islands-home only to penguins, and British Indian Ocean Territory, which is occupied solely by military personnel?

No, it’s not because of internet domain names, as some speculated.

The answer is found in today’s People’s Daily Image
editorial, “Pressure and threats are by no means the right way to deal with China,” which proudly declared that China maintains “import and export records with almost all countries and regions in the UN Standard Country or Area Codes for Statistical Use.”

And guess what? Among Image
those listed in the UN Standard Country or Area Codes for Statistical Use are the Great Territories of the British Indian Ocean Territory and Heard and McDonald Islands!

unstats.un.org/unsd/methodolo…Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 7
Three things you need to know about Liberation Day tariffs:

1. It’s not about the methodology.

The formula has been widely mocked, but that misses the point. The numbers aren’t meant to hold up in a PhD defense—they’re meant to shock, to create leverage. The more extreme the
figure, the stronger the incentive for other countries to come to the negotiating table with the U.S.

2. It’s not even about the tariffs.
The real issue isn’t Vietnam’s tariff rates—it’s China’s trans-shipment tactics and its central role in global supply chains.

The aim is to
isolate China and rewrite the rules of global trade. If a country like Vietnam is willing to align with that goal, it doesn’t matter much whether it sets its tariffs for American products at 0%, 5%, or even 9.4% (current rate).

3. It’s not personal with any country—except one.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 7
Amid Trump tariff chaos, People’s Daily published an editorial today urging everyone to “Focus on Doing Your Own Things”—a phrase that sums up China’s core strategy. This thread breaks it down.

It begins by acknowledging that U.S. tariffs do hurt, but “the sky can’t collapse.” Image
That phrase—“the sky can’t collapse”—is notable. Mao used the exact same words in 1962 during a meeting of 7,000 top CCP officials, after a disastrous 13 years marked by the Great Famine and split with a world Superpower - the USSR.

Fittingly, this is also the 13th year of Xi’s Image
reign—featuring the Great Lockdown and split with a world Superpower - the US.

The editorial offers 5 reasons why “the sky can’t collapse”:

1. China is a mega-sized economy with strong resilience to U.S. pressure.
2. China’s dependence on the U.S. is shrinking: exports to U.S.
Read 15 tweets

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