Thread by @fascinatorfun

DELTA AY4.2 seems to be on the move.

Sequenced cases last week were 15.1k

21.1k in the week ending 27-10-21.

That looks like about a 23%-24% increase

Is it because they are sampling more in known AY4.2 rising areas?

Doesn’t seem enough to explain this growth

In fact more like a 28% increase on last week

But looking at the entire column on nw cases confused why they have marked AY4.2 - maybe as just designated as VUI?

It clearly is not zero.

It looks to me as if it is gaining on Delta AY4.1 (still most of our cases)

Scotland has a disproportionately large number with 14.75% of AY4.2 sequenced cases but just 7.5-8% of the U.K. population.

But growing in England too

gov.uk/government/pub…

The good news 😀 is that it seems to have little or no impact of vaccine effectiveness

The bad news 🥺 is that data are pointing towards greater transmissibility with 19% growth

Nothing like the increase seen with Alpha, then original Delta v Alpha
But we don’t need this now

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1454054476227219459

Re hospitalisations and deaths TBH the numbers are still too small to be sure so keep a watchful eye on this over the next few weeks and hope that youth vaccination and booster shots in the over 60s pick up pace.

(About half of those eligible for boosters have received it - leaving about a 5.9 mill gap a couple of days ago) , and only 19% of young teens)

That red line is DELTA AY4.2.and you can see it gaining on DELTA AY4.1

The dark purple wedge to the bottom right of this graph puts AY4.2 in the context of AY4.1(paler purple).

But you can see that growth of the dark purple wedge in the bottom RH side of each regional graph is a bit smoother in some regions than others.

SW is noticeably steeper rise…likely as a result of so many false negatives arising from the #ImmensaLab fallout.

Should smooth out