If you want to generate a good climate for business, don’t behave as though you are up for a trade war to press economically insignificant causes in pursuit of nationalist objectives.
Instead, act in the national economic interest, and avoid trade wars almost at all costs. Over time, businesses will come to understand that this is what you will do, and grow to expect there not to be a trade war, and think it profitable to run a business in your country.
The trouble with trade wars is that they make the returns to doing business highly uncertain. You don't know if you will be able to get your inputs at reasonable cost, or at all, or export. Or if those of your customers who depend on easy trade will be able to spend with you.
Remember that many of these businesses are in places that you are trying to level up, or in places that you are going to tax to get £ to send to places you want to level up for development projects. Trade wars level down!

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More from @t0nyyates

25 Oct
A lot of good sense and food for thought in this.
We don't ask the BoE to follow instrument rules for monetary policy [like a Taylor rule, for instance]. We give it an objective [the inflation target] and let it decide how best to achieve it.
That doesn't mean such rules are useless or have no content. They can be a starting point for discussion. [Unless you happen to have named them, in which case they can be a relentless baseball bat with which to beat the central bank if the other side happens to be in].
Read 12 tweets
23 Oct
Comments like this, a classic of the genre of non economists who haven't read the entire field they are critiquing in one tweet, are not going to affect any change. Find some papers, or a paper, and say what you think is wrong with it.
If you haven't got any evidence for a conspiracy theory, then don't bother advancing it. It probably isn't true.
So far we have 'economists don't read their classics, so they can fake originality in new work, and they deliberately use maths to hide their politics [and oppress us all]'.
Read 4 tweets
16 Oct
On an operational matter like this OBR should not be taking instructions but using its own best guess and not any official published vintage. BOE do ‘nowcasting’ (forecasting the present) and so do any respectable private sector outfit.
This is not just about old official data vs new, therefore. Seems like there is a deliberate closing of eyes to the abundance of economic information that others use to try to second guess the ONS.
Part of why the ONS needs second-guessing it is that there is less inclination and necessity within it to use the multitude of other data it does not collect itself.
Read 9 tweets
15 Oct
Team transitory vs team permanent longandvariable.wordpress.com/2021/10/15/tea…
That was a blog post by the way. It's like a tweet hiding other tweets that could be edited after they were sent.
Just to make the point, and following the lead of @Dominic2306, I just retrospectively edited that same post to add in something I want you to think was there in the first place.
Read 4 tweets
9 Oct
Blair got the chance to reprise his refrain from the 90s, always: we have to cast off things from the past, and become a party of the future. Something he still seems to believe.
This was always a grating euphemism hiding behind a truism. What he meant was: we need to move to the right because that's what people want now, and recent history shows it works.
It seemed/seems like he thought/thinks in terms of historical determinism. History is moving inexorably to the right, to the centre, from the left, and we have to follow or be left behind.
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep
There was never any prospect of deals that would prevent our overall access and trade from falling. Other deals would be too shallow, because of the difficult choices they would throw up or sovereignty-reducing. And the non-EU world is too far away and ‘small’.
It’s useful to play the game of pointing out that deals they hoped for have not materialized but we shouldn’t concede the implicit point that those deals would have delivered what was claimed.
Some of the more sophisticated Leavers would argue that the iron law of trade gravity - tendency to trade much more with countries close to you - would be abolished and we would enter an era of global, weightless, digital trade.
Read 6 tweets

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