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Taniel Profile picture
@Taniel
Oct 29, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
This is wild: nytimes.com/2021/10/29/us/… Image
The three scholars that the state of Florida is forbidding to testify on the effects of the state's new voting restrictions are: Dan Smith (@electionsmith), Michael McDonald (@ElectProject), and Sharon Wright Austin.
“The university does not exist to protect the governor."

nytimes.com/2021/10/29/us/… Image
Last night I had not found the Twitter handle of the third scholar being targeted by the state of Florida for her expertise in voter restrictions, but here she is to support as well: @SharonA82707528 (alongside @ElectProject & @electionsmith)
More context: "Morteza Hosseini, the head of the UF board of trustees, co-chaired DeSantis’ 2018 transition team and has made major donations to the Republican Party."

And DeSantis's lawyers are balking at answering questions: thedailybeast.com/university-of-…
The University of Florida backtracks -- though the underlying issues here (voting restrictions, and a DeSantis state apparatus geared to protect them) remain:

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More from @Taniel

Taniel Profile picture
Jul 7
JUST IN: Polls closed in France. Exit polls show surprise:

—Left coalition (New Popular Front) projected first. (!)
—Far-right (RN) has lost its bid to take power. Anti-RN front appears to have worked very well.
—No bloc close to majority.

Follow this 🧵 for results and more: Image
2nd leading pollster projects a similar result—if anything a higher range for the Left coalition.

This wld be a much stronger result than expected for the Macron bloc as well. Still, a big drop for them from outgoing Assembly (250, enough for governing with plurality). Image
Stepback: If you're getting to this thread & want background, here's a thread from this morning walking you through the big picture.

One key reminder: Left bloc & the Macron bloc are quite separate; as are conservatives (LR); as is far-right (RN).
Read 44 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Jul 7
France is holding its parliamentary elections today.

Clear stakes: Will far-right end up governing France?

And if it fails, what possible coalition will end up governing given fragmentation?

You can follow me for results starting at 2pm ET; but a quick context 🧵:
Let’s start with: In France, president runs the show… as long as their party controls the Assembly. If presidential party loses that control, the president has few domestic powers—no veto, for instance. This isn’t a US-style split government. That’s why stakes today so high.
Macron called these just 4 weeks ago. Decision shocked his own allies.

He already lost his gamble: His bloc is sure to lose seats & its tentative control on Assembly. (He reportedly expected Left would fail to unite, & be knocked out of R1 most places; that didn’t happen.)
Read 10 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Jul 5
Details reported in piece for those who can’t read it

—Macron’s team mostly shrugged off results on Sunday. They started celebrating a birthday as returned still coming in
—He didn’t bother watching as Prime Minister, Attal, gave forceful speech calling to block far-right.
(1/?)
—Attal began calling Macronist candidate who came in 3rd but made runoff, asking them to drop out to consolidate vs far-right.

—Attal surprised to realize Macron was calling some in parallel, asking them to NOT drop out. This would risk RN wins.

(We have other confirmation:)
—Macron Interior Ministry, Darmanin right of party, reportedly said organizing election on 7/7 is good bc “bledards [word for immigrants from North Africa] won’t be around & won’t vote Left.”

Note: Darmanin & RN nearly tied in round 1. Left dropped out, helping him, to block RN.
Read 5 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Jun 30
JUST IN: Polls closed in first round of France elections. Two main French TV estimates (combines early results & exit poll) show strong far-right.

Far-right bloc: ≈34%
Left bloc: ≈28-29%
Macron bloc: ≈20-22%

What does this mean? What'll happen? Follow this thread ⬇️
Image
Image
Both estimates project that far-right will dominate the upcoming National Assembly — falling short so far of absolute majority, but not unattainable next week.

Left bloc projected 2nd. Macron's bloc, to collapse < 100 seats.

NOTE: This is projections of what'd happen NEXT WEEK.
Image
Image
First: If you are new to my timeline & need background, here's my thread from three weeks, with a lot of background.

The basic: This is largely a 3-way battle between far-right bloc, left bloc, & Macron bloc, with conservatives as a smaller fourth bloc.
Read 48 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
Jun 9
‼️ Shock news : French President Emmanuel Macron just announced he was dissolving the country's National Assembly.

He's calling national elections, which'll decide who'll run the country.

The elections were supposed to be in 2027. Instead, they'll be in early July (!!!).
The runoff of these parliamentary elections will be on July 7th... so 3 days after the UK elections! An extremely short campaign.

More context:

#1: This comes an hour after disastrous election results for Macron in the EU elections. (The far-right got 31% and Macron at 15%.)
#2: France currently has a hung Parliament due to weak results by Macron's party in 2022, tho his party has been able to govern because the conservative LR (despite not being in government) typically bail them out. Upside for Macron is if lighting campaigning gets him a majority.
Read 60 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
May 25
bolts just covered 2 big criminal justice reforms that became law over last week.

let's jump in:

1️⃣ Minnesota ended prison gerrymandering. This is the practice of counting incarcerated people where the prison is located, which skews political power. boltsmag.org/minnesota-ends…
2️⃣ Oklahoma passed a bill that gives incarcerated survivors of domestic violence a new shot at freedom, when the crime they were convicted for stemmed from their abuse.

Law went thru twists and turns as lawmakers (in this GOP-run state) navigated a veto: boltsmag.org/oklahoma-survi…
OK, it wasn't all about policy break throughs this week.

3️⃣ In Virginia, parole has basically entirely vanished (& it was already very low) as Glenn Youngkin has remolded the board. We reported in collaboration with MoJo.

Read this dive: boltsmag.org/virginia-parol…
Read 4 tweets

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