Thread by @karamballes

🧵JCVI minutes published...

Looks like I was right, JCVI mainly only looked at PHE's own studies, the ones they've gaslit us with for over 18 months

Also show an unhealthy number of assumptions with little evidence to back them, and very positive about benefits of infection

One of the presenters providing evidence on harms to children was Ladhani, who used mainly his own studies which concluded transmission isn't a significant issue in schools.

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1419283292247953411?t=mz0y1TeCWuGDjG0Z4H75eA&s=19

"The bioethics community has concerns about vaccination that doesn't directly benefit the individual"

Who make up the bioethics community?

Sticking to "community transmission" line, though accepts secondaries played some role in December

Those problematic PHE studies on long covid were the main evidence

A small Melbourne study was also used, comparative to let it rip UK?

Long covid no different to other respiratory viruses?!

If adults vaccination there's a low risk of children infecting eachother

"Arguement for allowing virus to circulate in children boosting immunity of children and adults"
(Herd immunity, who needs boosters when you have schools?)

Little rational for child vax if adults are vaxed

Next meeting

PHE modelling assumes natural immunity doesn't wane (despite a study they cite in a meeting showing it does)

Child vax unlikely to have substantial impact on the next wave

How did that work out?

Due to low risk vaccination might not be necessary, theoretical advantages of exposure to natural infection were noted

Increasing adult vax preferable to child vax

Cost of a vaccination programme was one key factor to consider

One reoccurring theme
Covid risks without enough data like PIMs are considered less severe that suggested

Risks of vaccination without evidence require serious consideration

Almost all children low risk, in absence of vaccination future generations would be exposed to covid in childhood,circulation in childhood could boost immunity in adults through exposure

Above
Little or no benefit of vaccinating 12-15

27 May

Above they note that deaths are more likely to come from certain groups, they claim this is similar to other viruses which we would normally bother to take measures against

Cost effectiveness again

Ethical issues-expertise needed, agreed Dingwall would write a paper on his thoughts

Reason to vaccinate would be to reduce deaths...

Vacxinating children predicted to have no impact on winter wave

Might be no waves after winter, or just seasonal

Consider vaccinating at risk children and 16-17 year olds, but to avoid disruption as risks of infection are very low

10th June
Viner one of those giving evidence this time, quotes his own study where he used total population as denominator not infections

Questions of hospitalisations are from or with covid

Looks very much like the March 2020 herd immunity mentality applied to children

Full details of evidence given isn't public and isn't included in minutes, neither is the ethical advice Dingwall agreed to write up

On CV students

Vast majority of CV students had already been removed from register

Asian, black and disadvantaged more likely to die

Small proportion of deaths were fit and healthy with no comorbidities

Comorbidies less of a factor in PIMS

Aha some international comparisons

"Difficult to explain deaths of children without any known underlying abnormalities"

Do they try to explain?

"Covid in children is different"

On the whole children who died had serious underlying conditions such that they have succumbed to other winter respiratory viruses"

But we know that many underlying conditions whixh increase risk like diabetes aren't life limiting or particularly susceptible to respiratory viruses

At this point its worth remembering Dingwalls views at the start of the pandemic

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1387151969127653376?t=IGvAlc73YNitGqNUYGvPhw&s=19

On CV students, wave would gave peaked by time first dose developed

Suggests wouldn't make much difference on hospitalisations

June 15th Special Meeting with the DfE

DfE
Priority face to face education

Committee considered of protective measures cause more disruption than infection....

(No it's the infections and outbreaks that's the problem)

NPI needed with vax?
Now individuals were protected reduction of cases as end game was questioned

They look at MHRA data, they look at other data and find no safety concerns in the international data

Committee wonders if there is under reporting

Decided protective measures cause the most impact, and contact tracing may be redundant if direct protection was in place for the vulnerable

Committee uncomfortable with vac for all students, mention worrying data from US, still wondering what data they mean

And its worth noting that Covid caused myocarditis is not mentioned or an attempt to calculate this risk, they have the paediatricians assessment risks are low and only look at deaths and hospitalisations, but accept there will be a few more without vaccination

But they accept future discussions may be needed regarding private vaccination for purpose of travel

Summary

Might as well have got GBD to attend, there's a lot of their talking points
Dismisses covid harms to children
Overly positive about infection, children to "boost" adult immunity
With vulnerable vaccinated why reduce cases?

Hybrid immunity 🧵

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1448904114490986498?t=SbhU6qp34L2n78LRjWNXtw&s=19

Theres more but its well past bed time and I've seen enough up to the original decision to hold off approval to understand why we're so out of line with other countries

Too pro infection, too dismissive of covid risks to kids

#GenerationGaslighted
gov.uk/government/gro…

We reached 100 child covid deaths this week after the deadliest term of the pandemic for children, since the June meeting thousands have been hospitalised, a large % infected, mass disruption of schools

Will JCVI claim this wasnt preventable?

Why despite the evidence shown that 2 doses are required against Delta are 12-15 in UK only being offered 1 dose?
Is UK treating infection as a second dose?
Ppl in UK claiming cases set to fall because of immunity built up in students, mainly from infection

Deliberate infection

Even now the same small group working with government are claiming handwashing is more important than masks or ventilation, what a track record they have

Still pretending covid isn't airborne?

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1400816314374148101?t=B1wjE5NtvDSUQrYp0NgSZQ&s=19

Freedom day plan was clear

Infections are inevitable so let's get as many young ppl and parents infected in summer in hope it relieves NHS pressure in winter

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1404821022570860544?t=F7S2VkzuZ9BrxH3oDcVF4g&s=19

And because of the fuckwits in most the media, the halfwits in opposition and sinister ideology on Tory backbench its once again going to be up to grassroot campaigners and scientists to try holding this gov to account for more preventable death&suffering

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1443965128890793987?t=29QzidnNHUC7P30ktZsbAw&s=19

Round of applause for those in the media who are working on coordinated disinformation, you are a small but valuable minority and face a barrage of abuse everyday as they try to threaten and silence you

So a few more meetings to go
29th June

MHRA update, in short they're safe, myocarditis rare and mild

Considerations on delivery, not to interfere with other vaccine programmes

Sero evidence of infection in children, depending on studies around 10% of students infected Jan to April

Committee says community transmission

Freedom day modelling

Vaccination of 12-17 showed reduction of hospitalisation across ALL age groups (20,000 adults) substantial in 12-17

However large wave in summer might prevent one in winter

After 2 doses expect 90% cut in hospitalisations, 95% cut in deaths

Vax would prevent 3.6 infections per 100 vaccinated

So deaths and hospitalisations and other health impacts could have been prevented

Consiser 16-17 but put off decisionsn until next meeting

1st July
Noted large numbers of students want the vaccine

Benefits were based on unvaccinated adult pop (suggests they think vaxxed adults will mean low infections in students, after all its all community transmission)

So benefits now uncertain

Still won't recommend

⚠️School leavers vax programme suggested for FUTURE YEARS for those children not exposed before adulthood⚠️

WTF

So the long terms assumption is not to have covid as a standard vax for children, but to have it become a standard childhood illness that all children catch?

Focus on only vax for the most at risk, they question need for many comorbidities

29th July
More updates on MHRA, then onto long covid

Not enough data, poor definitions, isn't seen as a major issue

Side effects of vax unquantifiable

Impacts of vax will impact disadvantaged more

Vaccination will now come too late and have little impact due to number of students who will already have antibodies from infection

School disruption to occur regardless

Immunisation from infection more likely to give broader protection from variants that vaccination?!

Evidence presented suggested myocarditis risk was potentially serious (what evidence?)

Uptake in 12-15 may be social driven rather than health

Still won't recommend
Impact of natural infection low, 45% children already infected, without vaccination likely every child will be infected at some point

JCVI final decision; yeah sounds fine to us, we won't approve it, let CMOs take the flak from the antivaxxers who we have just given a shit load of quotes to put on their websites and flyers as they harass and abuse ppl outside hospitals and schools

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1417865527578578945?t=NL_IkTdodqSLKjEcetG38g&s=19