Why I think this is happening:

1. Look at the personal savings rate. Consumers have a lot of money
2. Look at labor force participation rate. It would be even lower if people didn't die from covid in large numbers.
3. Look at CPI
Put all of them together:

1. Really high savings!
2. A lot fewer workers!
3. Prices have gone up a bit

To answer the question: prices have not gone up enough to deter extreme demand relative to supply so that is why we are seeing shortages...
Once prices absorb the disgusting waste created by this, demand *should* come back to normal levels relative to supply and we won't have crazy shortages (that is unless we go into a psychology-driven inflationary cycle).

/end thread

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More from @Molson_Hart

31 Oct
This “cope” coming to an American media purveyor near you!

“Yes, they may no covid, much less crime, better infrastructure, a healthier economy, less unrest, a stronger military, live longer, free healthcare, essentially free education…

…but we have freedom ™!”
Lot of people misunderstanding this tweet. What I am trying to say:

China is getting better (either closing the gap or exceeding) than the USA in a growing list of important factors (healthcare, gov't competence, education, crime, etc.) that corporate US media will abandon

1/2
the "Made in China? LOL" (the same as "Made in Japan? LOL" from decades ago) viewpoint and transition to one where instead of belittling the country for being backward we will say "well they might be better than us but we have freedom!"

The reality is that...

2/3
Read 5 tweets
31 Oct
Short thread (from me) on container content theft and our society which seems to break down a little bit more every day.

1/3
Read 4 tweets
31 Oct
Before Amazon aggregators, the typical buyer of Amazon businesses were corporate executives who wanted to try their hand at entrepreneurship. I have some buddies who sold to them. I’d estimate that 90%+ of those loans went bad. One story that sticks out…

1/n
One guy spent like $5 million on a business. The former owner told him “hey you need to order stock for prime day. You have a lightning deal.” He did too late so he flew an entire container to Amazon $180k vs $5k. It arrived after prime day. Stuff like that.

2/n
I can’t speak for all of SmB but I can tell you why these execs usually failed.

1) the sellers were doing blackhat tactics to maintain sales rank
2) thé buyers weren’t
3) buyers saw the Chinese competition coming in and eating margins
4) execs have big egos but running a smb
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
When I first started my business, I ran everything extremely lean. That’s the best way to do things when you’re young and have no money. However as you get older, you start to want to trade money for stress reduction and you realize that insurance in the form of slack in the

1/n
system (maybe an employee that is not fully utilized, extra cash on your balance sheet, actual insurance, not taking too many projects on at once, etc) is long run more profitable than doing everything balls to the wall.

I want to have expensive redundancy in every part of

2/n
my business that is important, the opposite of what they teach in business school.

To that end, I duplicate our entire Google cloud drive onto my computer’s hard drive in case Google fails.

(Yes I am baiting you into answering a computer question…)

3/n
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
When you're an Amazon seller, Amazon tells you which warehouse they want you sending your products to.

If that warehouse is far from you, it takes a long time to get there and it's expensive.

Unfortunately, Amazon moved our fulfillment center from nearby Dallas to...

1/n
faraway Charlotte, NC.

We were paying $375 per truck load.

Now we are paying $2800 to $3000 per truck.

2/n
It sucks.

If 14,000 Brain Flakes jars fit on that truck, our inbound shipping goes from $0.02/jar to $0.21/jar.

Amazon takes a 15% cut of any price increase so we need to pass an increase of ($0.21-$0.020/85%) = $0.22 to our consumers.

That seems like a small deal but...

3/n
Read 8 tweets
28 Oct
The best simplest way to measure the happiness of the people in a place is the median income divided by the median housing price.

This is the most basic explanation for why everyone is so unhappy globally, despite huge advancements in technology.

1/2
Think about it:

You want to know how “well-off” you are. You have a salary, but that’s a number. So you ask yourself: what can I buy with this salary? Stocks are too abstract to mean anything. Education you probably don’t need. Healthcare expenditure is random.

2/3
Food is cheap and hard to calculate; “what is $25 times 365 times the number of years I will live? Too complicated.” So what do you use to measure how well off you are? Housing. Everyone needs a house and they want to own it so they’re not owned by their landlord.

3/4
Read 5 tweets

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