Trung Phan Profile picture
Oct 31, 2021 18 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Trader Joe's has a playful brand but its business is very serious (annual revenue = $14B+).

With no ad spend or online sales, the chain perfected one psychological hack in its store/product design to achieve industry-leading sales of ~$1.7k per square foot.

Here's a breakdown🧵
1/ "The Paradox of Choice" is the main psychological phenomenon that explains Trader Joe's (TJs) success.

While "choice" sounds great, too many options can lead to analysis paralysis: the inability to make a decision and/or fear of making wrong choice.
2/ In 2000, Stanford researches highlighted "The Paradox of Choice" by setting up 2 display tables in a store with:

◻️24 jam option (60% of shoppers tried, 3% bought)
◻️6 jam options (40% of shoppers tried, 30% bought)

The table with fewer jam options converted 10x better!
3/ TJs was founded in 1969 by Joe Coulombe, who previously ran a chain of 7-11 type convenience stores.

Coulombe married small stores w/ affordable exotic goods aimed at the "overeducated but underpaid". The compact store size was critical in overcoming "The Paradox of Choice".
4/ Smaller store size = fewer SKUs

Today, TJs has 500+ stores conveniently located in urban areas. The average store size is 10-15k sqft, about 1/3rd a Whole Foods.

Due to its smaller footprint, TJs carries about 10% of the inventory of a typical grocer: 4k SKUs vs. 40k SKUs.
5/ Fewer SKUs = High quality @ low prices

To maximize space, Coulombe optimized for "high value relative to size": ~80% of TJs inventory is under its own brand, using same manufacturers as top competitors.

With few SKUs, TJ gets volume discounts and passes it on to shoppers.
6/ Curated products = cult following

TJs offers high-quality + affordable goods from all over the world (India, Italy, Mexico, Japan).

The 100% exclusive items lead to another psychological hack: for TJs legion of fans, the *switching costs* of shopping elsewhere are too high.
7/ Treasure hunt

TJs rabid fan base will check the store just to see the latest and greatest product drops. The "treasure hunt" mentality is built right into TJ's design.

One salient example: its freezers are open air (for browsing) vs. the standard closed-door look.
8/ A fun brand

Also, TJ dubs itself the "neighbourhood grocery store" and bringing out the mom 'n pop feel:

◻️Employees wear Hawaiian shirts
◻️Hand-written price tags and illustrated packaging evokes sense of "crafted" and "custom"
◻️Stores have custom murals (Austin below)
9/ Highly-engaged employees

The TJ experience is also very pleasant thanks to its employees ("crew members"). Instead of promotions, sales or ads, TJ put that money towards its people.

With above-market pay (+ 2 raises a year), churn is low and service quality stays high.
10/ Instead of bombarding us with options, TJs stocks exclusive high-quality SKUs at low prices (that people love).

TJs sells $1.7k per sqft, ~2x Whole Foods ($937) and more than other grocery chains.

In sum: TJ beats the "The Paradox of Choice" by doing a few things VERY well.
11/ If you enjoyed that, I write threads breaking down tech and business 1-2x a week.

Def follow @TrungTPhan to catch them in your feed.

Here's a one that might tickle your fancy:
12/FYI: To write these thread, I've been using the Synth browser to collect and organize my ideas (**DISCLAIMER: Founder is my buddy and I'm an investor).

synth.app
13/ Sources

CNBC: cnbc.com/2020/03/09/psy…

Marker: marker.medium.com/how-two-buck-c…

Przemek Szustak: medium.com/@przemekszusta…

Business Insider:

Barry Schwartz coined the term (and wrote the book) called "The Paradox of Choice": amazon.ca/Paradox-Choice…
14/ Also, you might like this thread I did about Trader Joe's legendary "Two Buck Chuck" Wine:
15/ This is a great nugget: while running the convenience chain, Coulombe -- a Stanford MBA -- wanted to see how grocers operated and spent his weekends doing free work for a neighbourhood store.

He received a free *education* that led to Trader Joe's.
17/ The Yahoo! vs. Google homepages (these ones from 1999) is a great example of "The Paradox of Choice" and how keeping it simple can win out.

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More from @TrungTPhan

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It’s since grown 6,000x to $1.8T or $327,000 per Norwegian (5.5m people).

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Unsurprisingly, its largest holding is Apple ($47B, or 1.4% of the entire company).

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I explain in this deep dive podcast on Trader Joe’s business history and strategy: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/caf…
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Sep 1, 2024
Berkshire Hathaway board member Chris Davis once asked Charlie Munger why Costco didn’t drop the membership card.

Let anyone shop and raise prices by 2% (still great value), thus making up for lost membership fees (and more).

Munger said the card is important filter:

▫️“Think about who you’re keeping out [with a membership card]. Think about the cohort that won’t give you their license and their ID and get their picture taken.

Or they aren’t organized enough to do it, or they can’t do the math to realize [the value]…that cohort will have a 100% of your shoplifters and a 100% of your thieves. Now, it’ll also have most of your small tickets.

And that cohort relative to the US population will probably be shrinking as a % of GDP relative to the people that can do the math [on Costco’s value].”▫️

I have a membership but have been guffing on the math for a few years tbh. They keep telling me to upgrade from Gold to Business but I’m too lazy (even if the 2-3% Cash Back on Business pays back after a few trips).

This is a long way of saying Costco’s membership price hike effective today — its first in 7 years — is annoying but when I decide to do the math in a few months, it’ll be worth it.

***

Chris Davis’ remarks from this episode of The Knowledge Project: open.spotify.com/episode/6fJYHF…Image
Anyway, here is something I wrote about Costco’s $9B+ clothing business my affinity for Kirkland-branded socks and Puma gym shirts. readtrung.com/p/costcos-9b-c…
Two notes:

▫️Meant “Executive” (not “Business”) membership
▫️Chris Davis was doing a pure thought experiment. Costco membership obvi high margin (on~$5B a year) and accounts for majority of Costco profits. Retail margin is tiny on ~$230B of annual sales (Costco would need like another $150B+ from letting anyone shop to make up membership profits)Image
Image
Read 5 tweets

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