Thread by @ryangrim

The CPC changing course, and now pushing for a vote on both the bipartisan bill and reconciliation before Manchin is on board, feels like a caucus cracking under the threat of being (absurdly) blamed if McAuliffe loses VA /1

Some progressives seem worried that if McAuliffe loses then a spooked Manchin might run for the hills. But from the CPC perspective, that's all the more reason to hold the line, b/c as @AOC has argued, the fossil-heavy BIF without being paired with the other is a net loser

The question is: Do the chances of Manchin supporting the build back better act go up or down if the BIF is passed? There's an argument that he wants it done that way for alpha reasons, so he can prove he wasn't pushed around by a bunch of House members

Or he could just kill it

Ilhan Omar, the CPC's whip, tells me: "It’s time to call his bluff, these bills will pass the house and everyone will get to see if Manchin is willing vote it down. It is also time to see if the President [can] get his friend on board and get the votes for his agenda."

If I were going to psychoanalyze Manchin, I'd guess gender roles matter here, too: Whether consciously or not he doesn't want it to look like a bunch of young women got the better of him.

If that's true, giving him the BIF first is actually the way to get it all finished...

It would almost be too on-the-nose if the way Jayapal and the Squad have to get this all done is swallow their pride and let the man think he's leading. Not an unfamiliar situation for women in professional (or any) settings.

Pontificating in public is what I do with this account. I said they cracked under pressure and handed away their leverage. You don’t have to read the thread beyond that if it bothers you

https://twitter.com/paul38280726/status/1455390454938144771