Tom Shugart Profile picture
Nov 1, 2021 6 tweets 4 min read Read on X
I have been waiting for months for this incredibly impressive demonstration of OSINT to come out - ever since I saw it presented at a @ChinaMaritime conference earlier this year.
The author (Mike Dahm) used AIS, commercial imagery, and other sources to weave an incredibly detailed picture of key amphibious assault exercises in 2020 and 2021 where the PLA experimented with the use of numerous civilian ships to supplement its organic sealift capacity.
Key takeaways IMO: the PLA and its reserve civilian fleet probably can't yet support a large-scale invasion of Taiwan, and the ships used so far to practice are a select cadre. But this capacity could expand rapidly after capabilities are formalized & expanded to other ships.
Another key takeaway: the PLA's ingenious floating pier systems could be used to cross Taiwanese coastal mud flats previously assessed as unsuitable for landings. If you've read many previous assessments of where/when the PLA could invade, you'll recognize this as a big deal. 👀
IMO the conclusions are spot-on: China probably can't do this now, but we shouldn't "underestimate the ingenuity and tenacity of the PLA", and efficiency may not be needed when a whole-of-society mobilization is behind the effort. And the PLA probably just getting started here.
And of course, the title, "Chinese Ferry Tales" is just...

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More from @tshugart3

Oct 8
This has been making the rounds—another article calling for U.S. conventional submarines—so I suppose it's time to weigh in. In this case, the article is written by someone personally knowledgeable of submarine operations—a U.S. submariner.

However...
usni.org/magazines/proc…
...the article seems to be missing consideration of two key factors that IMO continue to make the idea of U.S. (manned) diesel-electric submarines a bad idea: advances in autonomy, and the PLA Rocket Force.
First, autonomy: he explicitly calls for these diesel boats as cruise missile platforms (SSGs), making a point to separate them from the multi-mission capabilities of U.S. SSNs.
No need for ISR, ASW, or torpedo capability. Ok, great—this sounds like a perfect job for an XXLUUV. Image
Read 16 tweets
Oct 6
It's taken me a bit of time to get around to addressing this article by Jennifer Kavanagh about US-PRC-Taiwan relations in the NYT, but here we go.
She's pretty clear about how we got where we are: close to a US-PRC war, that the problem started with Taiwan. Image
She says the situation is not pre-ordained, and that the best way to avoid a war is to restrain US military posture in the region and tell Taiwan they may be on their own.
(I'd say she's half-right: it didn't have to be this way; but I'd place the blame elsewhere.)Image
Read 18 tweets
Sep 5
Ok, a few more thoughts on some of the things we saw in this week’s PLA parade. I’ll start in the undersea domain, with this large UUV.

Going back and looking at the footage, you can see in this shot that it appears to have a couple of sonar arrays. Image
My guess is that those are a flank array and a bow array.

We can also see 4 masts/antennas: 3 appear to be retractable with a closure panel and one fixed on a short mast near the stern (see above). Image
Based on the number of sensors - sonar for acoustic detection, masts perhaps for EW/ESM, video, perhaps a snorkel for a diesel, I’m guessing this is an ISR UUV.

From this shot, it appears it has a 9-bladed propulsor. Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 3
China’s parade is about to get started. Xi is making a speech where he says China is a force for peace, development, etc. Anyway…time to roll those new missiles, UxVs, armored vehicles, etc.

(I’ll be posting any stuff that I see that’s particularly interesting. Here we go…) Image
Right now it’s just Xi driving by - wondering now if they’re going to roll this stuff past like in the past or if this is it? Image
Looks like some unmanned undersea and surface vessels (UUVs and USVs). Image
Read 26 tweets
Aug 5
Image
hooboy, that's a lot of doing things the wrong way...😬 Image
I recall time there being significance attached to the "dropped two wts" message in the reporting at the time, as an indication they had a problem & needed to come up. Apparently completely normal.

In contrast, I recall no word that THEY HEARD A BANG FROM THE OCEAN SURFACE. 😬 Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 20
In the "you can't make this stuff up" category, in this 16 Apr image of COMEC's Longxue shipyard in Guangzhou you can see 5 of China's new Shuiqiao-class "invasion barges", whose only apparent purpose is to invade Taiwan, as well as... Image
...based on AIS data, what also appears to be a container ship under construction for a TAIWANESE Company, Evergreen Lines.

(and a couple of Zubr-class assault hovercraft, PLA Navy auxiliaries, and more.) Image
Image
To be clear, this sort of thing has been talked about before, even in Taiwan: taipeitimes.com/News/front/arc…
Read 8 tweets

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