Thread by @Noahpinion

I'm reading "The Sleepwalkers". About 10 minutes into the section about European politics, you realize that the question of why these people went to war has an obvious, boring answer: All of these people were just totally batshit insane.

Everyone in Britain, Russia, France and (eventually) Germany was just constantly thinking of how to conquer more of the world -- not even considering the possibility that that might not be a good goal. Very few of them were particularly afraid of war.

When you have a bunch of countries that are used to constantly trying to conquer more territory, and who aren't particularly afraid of war, you will get a war. It's not even a question. Asking "What if they hadn't gone to war?" is like asking "What if my dog hadn't pooped?".

And this is actually pretty reassuring, because for all the WW1 analogies that people throw around regarding the U.S. and China today, and for all the heated rhetoric and arms buildup, most people are just not that insane anymore.

I still think it's possible that China is crazy enough to start WW3. But it's also possible they're not. And it's highly likely that the U.S. isn't.

This is an improvement from WW1, in which everyone involved was definitely crazy enough to start WW1.

That said...it is still prudent to pretty worried, given recent events.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

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