A net zero target from Nigeria is truly extraordinary, and a testament to the level of ambition we're seeing from emerging economies now.

There is no way this would be happening if zero-carbon technologies hadn't so drastically undercut fossil fuels on cost.
Nigeria is of course Africa's biggest oil producer with the world's biggest conventional reserves after the Middle East, Russia and the U.S., roughly equal with Venezuela.
And it is at the bottom of the escalator of energy-intensive development and industrialization that India is now climbing and China is stepping off.
Sub-Saharan Africa doesn't get a lot of attention at climate talks because its carbon footprint is so low right now and not likely to rise dramatically in the coming few years the way we see with the big Asian economies.
But it will be home to one in three people in 2100, so the path it takes is absolutely crucial. I'm not sure it will be easy for Nigeria. Despite a good solar resource, it doesn't have a great landscape for wind power and hydro potential is insufficient.
And yet oil has been as much of a curse there as it has been anywhere.

As I argued earlier this year, a post-oil Nigeria might finally manage to follow the rather positive development path of post-oil Indonesia:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

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More from @davidfickling

27 Oct
Very much agree with this @matt_levine piece about the simpler explanation for the lack of oil drilling in the U.S.: it's not ESG, it's just usual expectations around cashflows.

The past ~15 years in oil markets make show this pretty well:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @bopinion
@bopinion When I first started following energy markets 15 years ago, the big thing everyone was talking about was the revenge of state oil companies and the decline of the old "Seven Sisters" -- Exxon, Shell, Chevron, BP, Total, Eni, etc:

ft.com/content/471ae1…
The thinking here was pretty straightforward. The offshore and onshore oil basins outside of OPEC that oil importers and international oil companies had used to diversify supply since the 1970s oil crisis (the North Sea, for instance) were more or less tapped out.
Read 21 tweets
21 Oct
Stunning pace of vaccine uptake in Victoria now.

At current rate (1st doses up 1.4%/week in NSW, 2.5%/week in Vic) it's conceivable that Victoria's coverage even moves ahead of NSW next month.

A month ago they were 10 percentage points behind.
I very rarely say "x shouldn't be politicized". Most things should be politicized, and there's been lots of genuine failings worthy of criticism around Australia's handling of Covid. But this is why I most hate all this interstate rivalry nonsense.
The sheer volume of bad-faith sniping that has gone on has been mind-boggling, and profoundly dispiriting. Every time I saw some shift in the infection or vaccine data attributed to Dictator Dan or Corrupt Gladys my heart sank.
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
This is just devastating stupidity, even for this band of absolute chiefs.

Imagine making a highly-levered bet against the Hong Kong dollar peg, at a time when the aggregate balance which underpins it is absolutely surging.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Look at the chart here. When this line goes up, it gets easier and easier for the HKMA to fund the currency peg.

May is when they're shopping this trade around and none of the investors appears to have thought to look at the HKMA's website. Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
Have you noticed all the Takes doing the rounds about how the current spike in fossil fuel prices shows the energy transition won't work?

This is, IMO, absolute brain-wormed nonsense. I wrote on this topic today, here's a quick thread to explain:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
There's plenty of examples of this genre around. We have a big climate meeting coming up, energy prices are going crazy, so it's a good opportunity to make some tendentious links:
Here's the WSJ's editorial page last month: "Europe’s anti-carbon policies have created a fossil-fuel shortage"

wsj.com/articles/europ…
Read 34 tweets
26 Sep
⠀ ⠀ ⠀ 🤠
  📊📊📊
📊 📊 📊
👇 📊📊 👇
  📊 📊
  📊  📊
  👢 👢
howdy. i'm the sheriff of charts, and I'm here to report a most heinous series of #chartcrimes Image
🤔 I wonder what happened in the middle of July to switch vaccine distribution policy from strongly anti-partisan (send most doses to Victoria) to strongly partisan (send most doses to NSW)? It's a mystery! Image
Could it be that the way Qld and WA have drifted from the average since March is something to do with the fact that they have more eliminated Covid so don't need as many urgent doses as some other states? 🤔
Read 8 tweets
15 Sep
This is a huge issue across social media, and not enough attention us being devoted to it.

"Engagement" is a nice euphemism that covers a spectrum from benign interest to harmful addiction, and social media companies show a pointed public disinterest in teasing out which it is.
For companies dealing in addictive activities like like drinking, gambling and smoking, a lot of the revenue is driven by the most "engaged" segment of their customer base — addicts.
Social media companies are the same, and if you look through their stock market filings and advice for third-party developers they'll often say explicitly that it's the most "engaged" users who'll drive revenues.
Read 9 tweets

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