Thread by @mattsheffield

If Terry McAuliffe goes down in #VAgov election tonight, it shows:

🟧 Trump weakens the GOP. In 2020, Trump lost VA by 10 points. Youngkin publicly (though not privately) avoided Trump.
🟧 Corporate centrism is a loser for Dems, esp w/a GOPer who brands as non-Trumpy

One of the big things to keep an eye on will be turnout in #VAGovernor race. It may come down to a base vs. base race. GOP "critical race" obsession was about firing up its reactionary voters while puzzling everyone else. But McAuliffe played into that w/parent education comment.

We'll see what the final totals are, but here are some stats on the two-party VA topline votes:
2013 (D gov win): 2.08 million
2016 (D prez win): 3.75 million
2017 (D gov win): 2.58 million
2020 (D prez win): 4.38 million
2021 (?): 3.16 million (estimate)

Virginians have also historically voted for the governor opposite the current president. This has happened in every VA gubernatorial election but one going back to 1977.

Also, segregationist Dem turned Republican Mills Godwin is the only #VAgov to ever be reelected, in 1973.

Given the historically evident preferences of VA voters, Terry McAuliffe was playing with fire by running again after serving once, irrespective of who his opponent was.

But his ties to Dem big donors enabled him to bigfoot other candidates out of the race.

It's possible that VA Dems went for Terry McAuliffe because in 2013, his victory was the first one in decades from the current president's party. Clearly, some people thought he could defy history again by winning re-election opposite a Dem president again.

Ad campaigns are often irrelevant in high-profile races like #VAgov, but Youngkin had an advantage

GOP Govs Assn. - 10.5 mil
Dem Govs Assn. - 6.7 mil
VA GOP 286k
VA Dems 2.6 mil
Outside pro GOP - 3.4 mil
Outside pro Dem - 272k
Total: 14.19 mil R, 9.57 mil D

One enormous advantage that Youngkin had, and pretty much every Republican everywhere has, is a private media network that keeps base voters fired up. Dem elites refuse to observe and respond in kind, as @ThePlumLineGS noted washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…

Aside from the MSNBC - Fox counterbalance, there is nothing in left-wing advocacy anywhere close to approximating the gigantic, 24/7 advocacy media network of national and state talk radio plus dozens of pure propaganda websites

Besides constantly firing up GOP voters (to dangerous levels as I've reported frequently), right-wing media also serves to re-orient the mainstream media toward its topics and narratives.

Lefties have no outlets that exist to promote and test narratives to public/media.

Right-wing media also serves the enormous advantage of cocooning GOP-leaning voters from reality. It is so comprehensive in every possible medium that you can get 100% GOP spin and never, ever hear contrary information.

You cannot even begin a conversation w/such people.

And because right-wing media is so immensely prolific, they are able to "flood the zone" with nonsense on new issues like "critical race theory" such that they can also spin moderates and independents who see only their lies bc MSM doesn't respond much.

Right-wing media is one of the biggest components of Republican electoral victories. Unfortunately, the left establishment seems to think that flushing millions down the toilet of TV ads is a good idea.

I wish I could change that. Maybe if I get enough retweets of this thread.

Everyone on the left side of the political spectrum constantly complains that Dem voters don't vote much in non-presidential elections.

Advocacy media is how this happens. If you are interested in helping me build this and can afford it, please chip in patreon.com/fluxcommunity

Here's some more background how the far right has driven America into crisis, if you would like to keep going

https://twitter.com/mattsheffield/status/1455763930869993474