I've been looking at all these plots about vaccine effectiveness and hospitalisation, and thinking they're missing the exposure side of things... so I made another plot.
This plot shows how the vaccine reduces both hospitalisations *and* disease.
gitlab.com/gringer/covid-…
This plot shows how the vaccine reduces both hospitalisations *and* disease.
gitlab.com/gringer/covid-…
I've assumed here that the number of exposed unvaccinated people is the same as the number of unvaccinated people with COVID. I could bump that exposure number up a bit, but it wouldn't change the overall visualisation because the proportions of vaccinated people wouldn't change.
There's another niggle in that vaccination & cases are a dynamic event. MOH doesn't have vaccination status in their case demographic CSV file, so I use 2 wks ago as a fudge.
That shouldn't be too much of a problem anyway, because recent numbers dominate for exponential growth.
That shouldn't be too much of a problem anyway, because recent numbers dominate for exponential growth.
I've also assumed that exposed proportions equal the country-wide vaccinated proportions. This would be the case where there's widespread community transmission, but we mostly only have it in Auckland. The benefit of vaccination is probably better than what is represented here.
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