WSJ: After meeting US envoy Jeff Feltman Oct. 24, Sudan Gen. al-Burhan “boarded a jet to Egypt for secret talks to ensure his plot would have regional support.” Sisi reassured him. Upon his return to Khartoum, Burhan arrested dozens of officials, inc. PM wsj.com/articles/milit…
Sudan’s military coup is the 4th in Africa this year. “Military strongmen in Guinea, Chad & Mali have in recent months taken power from weakened governments that were vulnerable to foreign interference and plagued by poor governance, stuttering economies, and insecurity”
Attempted “military coups have been foiled this year in Madagascar, Central African Republic and Niger.”
“In Africa, this year has seen a quadrupling of coups after just one putsch in 2020—again in Mali—and an average of just two a year over the past decade. The number is the highest since 1980… “
👉🏼 “Diplomats and analysts say that a key reason for the surge in coups is that the willingness of a number of international powers to deal with authoritarian regimes has lowered the potential cost of a regime change.”
China, Russia—and it seems, the Gulf states—support the military coups. The US and Europe oppose.
“Egypt has been seeking international support for its dispute with Ethiopia” over a giant dam. “Just before the coup, Egypt’s intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, traveled to Khartoum to meet Gen. Burhan—but shunned PM Hamdok.”
The Egyptians were unhappy with Sudan PM Hamdok’s “public openness to the Ethiopian dam…’Hamdok has to go,’ Mr. Kamel told Gen. Burhan, one Sudan government adviser said.”
“In weekend anticoup protests that Secretary of State Antony Blinken said numbered in the millions, demonstrators decried President Sisi as the hidden hand behind the coup.
‘Abdel Fatta Burhan and Sisi—one and the same,’ they chanted.”
Beyond Russia and China. Not sure the United States has fully grappled with so many of its Middle East partners being forces for spreading authoritarianism and anti democracy/military juntas, that those mostly authoritarian states see as better serving their interests.
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“As the negotiations over the chip exports continued, some WH officials noticed that Sacks had an ally in Witkoff, who was seen as a valuable supporter for the U.A.E., because he had Mr. Trump’s ear…
The Emiratis floated an even bigger request.
“US special envoy Steve Witkoff misunderstood Putin's statements & took them for a concession. .. 1/ unn.ua/en/news/trumps…
“He interpreted Russia's required ‘peaceful withdrawal’ of Ukrainians from Kherson & Zaporizhzhia as an offer of a ‘peaceful withdrawal’ of Russians from these same regions, reported BILD. 2/
“‘Witkoff doesn't know what he's talking about,’ a Ukrainian official stated. According to the publication, representatives of the German government share this assessment.”
🧵Iran Dep FM Ravanchi to NBC: “As long as there is no act of aggression being perpetrated by the United States against us, we will not respond again,” Takht-Ravanchi said when asked if more was to come.
“We are for diplomacy” & “we are for dialogue,” Ravanchi. But the US gov’t needs “to convince us that they are not going to use military force while we are negotiating. That is an essential element for our leadership to be in a position to decide about the future round of talks.”
“Our policy has not changed on enrichment,” Ravanchi said. “Iran has every right to do enrichment within its territory. The only thing that we have to observe is not to go for militarization.”
🧵Reporter: Mr. President, what's your reaction to the intelligence reports saying that the Iranian nuclear sites were only partially devastated, not entirely?
Trump: Well, …the report said it could have been very, they don't know.
Trump: I mean, if they did a report, I could have Pete [Hegseth] talk to it, because his department did the report. They really don't know.
I think Israel is going to be telling us very soon, because Bibi is going to have people involved in that whole situation.
Trump: We hear it was obliteration. It was a virtual obliteration.
When you take a look at the ground above, don't forget, the flame is all underground.
🧵Former State Dept official Dan Benaim: It seems like a moment for humility…. But it strikes me that there's so much more that we don't know than what we do know, including the very basics of the battlefield damage assessment.
Benaim: “It seems to me that despite some triumphalism, there's no once and for all solution here to the Iranian nuclear program, and we shouldn't expect one off airstrikes to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat.”
Benaim: “One thing that I should say when it comes to regional integration, and the prospects for the region… in talking about perceptions of Israel,…is Gaza.
🧵Ken Pollack: First point, we don't know what the American strike accomplished. we've heard the initial briefings.
I did look at the satellite photographs of Fordo. There are a couple of holes, & it's clear that the surface Earth has shifted.
But I find it very difficult to tell what the extent of the damage that was done to Fordo,
And quite frankly, I am going to be surprised if the US intelligence community has a really good read on what happened to Fordo.