Laura Rozen Profile picture
Nov 3, 2021 11 tweets 3 min read Read on X
WSJ: After meeting US envoy Jeff Feltman Oct. 24, Sudan Gen. al-Burhan “boarded a jet to Egypt for secret talks to ensure his plot would have regional support.” Sisi reassured him. Upon his return to Khartoum, Burhan arrested dozens of officials, inc. PM wsj.com/articles/milit…
Sudan’s military coup is the 4th in Africa this year. “Military strongmen in Guinea, Chad & Mali have in recent months taken power from weakened governments that were vulnerable to foreign interference and plagued by poor governance, stuttering economies, and insecurity”
Attempted “military coups have been foiled this year in Madagascar, Central African Republic and Niger.”
“In Africa, this year has seen a quadrupling of coups after just one putsch in 2020—again in Mali—and an average of just two a year over the past decade. The number is the highest since 1980… “
👉🏼 “Diplomats and analysts say that a key reason for the surge in coups is that the willingness of a number of international powers to deal with authoritarian regimes has lowered the potential cost of a regime change.”
China, Russia—and it seems, the Gulf states—support the military coups. The US and Europe oppose.
“Egypt has been seeking international support for its dispute with Ethiopia” over a giant dam. “Just before the coup, Egypt’s intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, traveled to Khartoum to meet Gen. Burhan—but shunned PM Hamdok.”
The Egyptians were unhappy with Sudan PM Hamdok’s “public openness to the Ethiopian dam…’Hamdok has to go,’ Mr. Kamel told Gen. Burhan, one Sudan government adviser said.”
“In weekend anticoup protests that Secretary of State Antony Blinken said numbered in the millions, demonstrators decried President Sisi as the hidden hand behind the coup.

‘Abdel Fatta Burhan and Sisi—one and the same,’ they chanted.”
Beyond Russia and China. Not sure the United States has fully grappled with so many of its Middle East partners being forces for spreading authoritarianism and anti democracy/military juntas, that those mostly authoritarian states see as better serving their interests.

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More from @lrozen

Jul 3
🧵Iran Dep FM Ravanchi to NBC: “As long as there is no act of aggression being perpetrated by the United States against us, we will not respond again,” Takht-Ravanchi said when asked if more was to come.
“We are for diplomacy” & “we are for dialogue,” Ravanchi. But the US gov’t needs “to convince us that they are not going to use military force while we are negotiating. That is an essential element for our leadership to be in a position to decide about the future round of talks.”
“Our policy has not changed on enrichment,” Ravanchi said. “Iran has every right to do enrichment within its territory. The only thing that we have to observe is not to go for militarization.”
Read 4 tweets
Jun 25
🧵Reporter: Mr. President, what's your reaction to the intelligence reports saying that the Iranian nuclear sites were only partially devastated, not entirely?

Trump: Well, …the report said it could have been very, they don't know.
Trump: I mean, if they did a report, I could have Pete [Hegseth] talk to it, because his department did the report. They really don't know.

I think Israel is going to be telling us very soon, because Bibi is going to have people involved in that whole situation.
Trump: We hear it was obliteration. It was a virtual obliteration.

When you take a look at the ground above, don't forget, the flame is all underground.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 23
🧵Former State Dept official Dan Benaim: It seems like a moment for humility…. But it strikes me that there's so much more that we don't know than what we do know, including the very basics of the battlefield damage assessment.
Benaim: “It seems to me that despite some triumphalism, there's no once and for all solution here to the Iranian nuclear program, and we shouldn't expect one off airstrikes to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat.”
Benaim: “One thing that I should say when it comes to regional integration, and the prospects for the region… in talking about perceptions of Israel,…is Gaza.

It's a major unresolved issue for the Gulf.
Read 11 tweets
Jun 22
🧵Ken Pollack: First point, we don't know what the American strike accomplished. we've heard the initial briefings.
I did look at the satellite photographs of Fordo. There are a couple of holes, & it's clear that the surface Earth has shifted.
But I find it very difficult to tell what the extent of the damage that was done to Fordo,
And quite frankly, I am going to be surprised if the US intelligence community has a really good read on what happened to Fordo.
Read 20 tweets
Jun 21
“On Thur., Trump responded as he often has when faced with difficult options: He bought himself time, declaring he would wait up to 2 weeks to make a decision. So far, those cautioning the president to avoid authorizing a strike ..appear to be breaking through.”
“On Thur., Trump had lunch with Steve Bannon” who opened his show that day “by decrying the faux ‘urgency’ that pro-Israel hawks were pressing upon Trump.”

Bannon & Jack Posobiec likened those speaking to Trump advocating for a US attack on Iran to used car salesmen who tell buyers they only have limited time to decide.
“Shortly after Trump’s lunch with Bannon”, press sec Karoline Leavitt told WH press briefing she had a statement said ‘directly from the president.’ The message was that Trump was going to let negotiations play out longer.”
Read 7 tweets
Jun 16
Frmr Centcom chief ret. Marine Gen. Kenneth McKenzie sees mission creep in Israel war: I do believe that regime changes is on the table in Tel Aviv, & I think that represents a thing we should be very familiar with in the United States: mission creep
where you have astonishing initial success, and so your goals tend to expand as the horizon opens ahead of you.
So I think perhaps when they went into this, they were looking at a more narrowly targeted campaign, but the bringing the inability to defend themselves and the success the Israelis have had opens new vistas for you.
Read 35 tweets

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