Reporting on foreign policy. Current: Diplomatic Substack, Just Security ed bd. Al-Monitor Politico Foreign Policy alum. lkrozen threads, lkrozen.bsky, at gmail
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Dec 22 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
👀🧵 “Rubio was scheduled to attend peace talks with Ukrainian officials in Switzerland, but Witkoff had set off early in what some officials saw as a bid to beat him to the punch…, Witkoff did not communicate his travel plans to Rubio & other State Dep. officials, the 3 sources said, in what they perceived as a move to allow Witkoff to negotiate with Ukraine in a way he saw fit.
nbcnews.com/politics/white…
“It was not the first time U.S. officials had seen Witkoff’s actions as an attempt to make an end-run around Rubio. …latest example of a long-running rift between the two senior figures…with sharply different views about how to end the war in Ukraine and how much the U.S. should trust Russia’s promises.”
Dec 15 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
US official on talks with Ukraine says US willing to submit security package for Senate ratification.
Another US official says they have beefed up the security guarantees package but warns the guarantees will not be on the table forever. eg pressure on Ukraine to take it sooner
“US special envoy Steve Witkoff misunderstood Putin's statements & took them for a concession. .. 1/ unn.ua/en/news/trumps…
“He interpreted Russia's required ‘peaceful withdrawal’ of Ukrainians from Kherson & Zaporizhzhia as an offer of a ‘peaceful withdrawal’ of Russians from these same regions, reported BILD. 2/
Jul 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
🧵Iran Dep FM Ravanchi to NBC: “As long as there is no act of aggression being perpetrated by the United States against us, we will not respond again,” Takht-Ravanchi said when asked if more was to come.
“We are for diplomacy” & “we are for dialogue,” Ravanchi. But the US gov’t needs “to convince us that they are not going to use military force while we are negotiating. That is an essential element for our leadership to be in a position to decide about the future round of talks.”
Jun 25 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
🧵Reporter: Mr. President, what's your reaction to the intelligence reports saying that the Iranian nuclear sites were only partially devastated, not entirely?
Trump: Well, …the report said it could have been very, they don't know.
Trump: I mean, if they did a report, I could have Pete [Hegseth] talk to it, because his department did the report. They really don't know.
I think Israel is going to be telling us very soon, because Bibi is going to have people involved in that whole situation.
Jun 23 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
🧵Former State Dept official Dan Benaim: It seems like a moment for humility…. But it strikes me that there's so much more that we don't know than what we do know, including the very basics of the battlefield damage assessment.
Benaim: “It seems to me that despite some triumphalism, there's no once and for all solution here to the Iranian nuclear program, and we shouldn't expect one off airstrikes to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat.”
Jun 22 • 20 tweets • 3 min read
🧵Ken Pollack: First point, we don't know what the American strike accomplished. we've heard the initial briefings.
I did look at the satellite photographs of Fordo. There are a couple of holes, & it's clear that the surface Earth has shifted.
But I find it very difficult to tell what the extent of the damage that was done to Fordo,
Jun 21 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“On Thur., Trump responded as he often has when faced with difficult options: He bought himself time, declaring he would wait up to 2 weeks to make a decision. So far, those cautioning the president to avoid authorizing a strike ..appear to be breaking through.”
“On Thur., Trump had lunch with Steve Bannon” who opened his show that day “by decrying the faux ‘urgency’ that pro-Israel hawks were pressing upon Trump.”
Bannon & Jack Posobiec likened those speaking to Trump advocating for a US attack on Iran to used car salesmen who tell buyers they only have limited time to decide.
Jun 16 • 35 tweets • 5 min read
Frmr Centcom chief ret. Marine Gen. Kenneth McKenzie sees mission creep in Israel war: I do believe that regime changes is on the table in Tel Aviv, & I think that represents a thing we should be very familiar with in the United States: mission creep
where you have astonishing initial success, and so your goals tend to expand as the horizon opens ahead of you.
Jun 16 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Israeli journalist Shlomi Eldar: But it is worth noting that the Wall Street Journal relies on Israeli sources who sometimes, or in most cases, feed it with requests to promote some move. In most cases, this is Netanyahu's office.
🧵Trump, asked if he discussed Iran in call with Netanyahu, via WH pool: “Yeah, we discussed a lot of things, & it went very well, very smooth. We'll see what happens. You know, we're trying to do something with a country we just spoke about, Iran. I think you should negotiate this. …
“They are good negotiators, but they're tough. Sometimes they can be too tough. That's the problem.
We're trying to make a deal so that there's no destruction and death.
May 12 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
🧵NYT on why Trump pulled the plug. After 30 days of US bombing:
“the results were not there. The US had not even established air superiority over the Houthis. Instead, what was emerging…was another expensive but inconclusive American military engagement in the region.
“The Houthis shot down several American MQ-9 Reaper drones & continued to fire at naval ships in the Red Sea, inc. a US aircraft carrier. & the US strikes burned through weapons & munitions at a rate of about $1 billion in the first month alone.
Apr 3 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
this meeting sounds insane. Trump Vance Waltz Wiles Gor listening to Loomer demands on supposedly disloyal neocons who should be fired
🧵A former DoD civilian military planner writes to explain why the information that Defense Sec. Hegseth sent out in advance of US strikes in Yemen could have compromised the safety of US military personnel: “Why is something like F-18 launch times so sensitive?
1/
“Yes, it lets an adversary know of an impending attack, but it also reveals a key vulnerability.
An aircraft carrier is most vulnerable to attack when it is launching & recovering aircraft because..its ability to maneuver is restricted. 2/
Mar 25 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
🧵Sen. Angus King: something you said has sort of puzzled me. …on the morning of March 15, Sec. Hegseth put into this group text a detailed operation plan, inc. targets, the weapons we were going to be using, attack sequences and timing.
King: And yet, you've testified that nothing in that chain was classified. Wouldn't that be classified?
Gabbard: Senator, I can attest to the fact that there were no classified or intelligence equities that were included in that chat group at any time.
Mar 25 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Gabbard: Turning to key state actors, the IC sees China, Russia, Iran & North Korea engaging in activities that could challenge US capabilities & interests, esp. related to our security & economy. These actors are in some cases working together
Identifies Russian as a nuclear threat and cyber threat. new satellite intended to carry a nuclear weapon.
she does not mention Russian threat to US allies in Europe, invasion of Ukraine, hybrid threats, election interference, etc.
Mar 17 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
🧵Fiona Hill @ForeignAffairs podcast: Trump is “fixated on the one guy himself, on Putin…Certainly his own staff he doesn’t pay any attention to. It's all about being able to sit down with Putin. 1/
“And when you're not prepared, and when you don't know where the other person is coming from—it’s just about his interaction—then of course you're going to be taking on the talking points of Russia. 2/
Mar 2 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
holy jesus, Gabbard just gave a ten minute Kremlin informercial on one of the Sunday shows reairing on cspan radio. tuned in after it had started and wondered who is this Kremlin loon, and the host did not push back at all.
we are in deep deep deep doo doo.
Feb 20 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
US leverage on Russia has been diminished by what the Trump administration has already given away, Russian expert Maria Snegovaya says at CSIS panel. Russian maximalist goals are still there, she says.
Dara Massicot on how Ukrainians have become more western: the things that struck me, …when you walk the streets of these various cities in Ukraine, they only look Soviet on the outside, right? The people are not the same. You can see in real time, the russianness, or, …the shared Soviet (past) just drain out of the country.
