That's why u're supposed to group all ur trades into setups. Not every strategy is the same. different strategies have diff rules of engagement. Some setups are scalps, some are breakouts, some are reversals, some are all day fades etc. Each with diff targets, winrates, RR etc
1/2 My hopes for the overall market $SPY going into next wk
I want to short puts again (bullish play), because some reversal factors have lined up, EXCEPT for the most important one.... retail has not aggressively bought puts yet going into next week (they're not scared enough)
2/2 And as a contrarian, I have to be patient and wait for dumb money to position themselves first. So I'm sitting on the sidelines hoping that we get a massive selloff (or gap down) to break retail's confidence, instigate a panic, & force them to buy puts at inflated premiums
when they do, the ADF shop will be there to sell them all the goddamn puts they want lol.
if we bounce instead in the next few days (without a panic selloff 1st), then i'll just miss the bounce play & just wait for the next setup (long or short). Patience grasshopper, patience.
Also fun fact, world news mean nothing. The market is manipulated by billionaire option sellers. They plan their moves (long or short) weeks in advance, then they just use whatever trending news to justify the move, hide their footprints, or trigger the final selling or squeeze.
why do you think bad news seems to ALWAYS happen when the market is already in a heavy downtrend? or why good news seems to always happen when stocks are already uptrending? when they're short MASSIVE positions, they need u fuckers to panic sell so they can cover.
when they're long MASSIVE positions, they need u fuckers to FOMO buy so they can take profits into ur buy orders (aka "sell the news"). And when u're a multibillionaire, who do u think u play golf with? joe smuck who works at target? or world politicians & owners of news outlets?
1) I NEVER go max size (1R risk) on a parabolic move (long or short) unless I get a blowoff or a pullback once Im in the money. In fact my buddy & I were on Voxer yesterday BEGGING for a blowoff so we could add the remaining portions.
That's why a lot of times, when a move goes directly in my favor without a pullback or bounce, you see me tweet/complain "fuck, I was only on starter size" or "fuck, I didn't get to add the rest" etc. I ALWAYS break up my orders & drop Mjolnir only when EVERYTHING lines up
2) I never EVER sell naked. Im always doing spreads (or buying naked), this way my max loss is ALWAYS fixed. And if u know me then u know that the moment I take on a trade I already expect the trade to fail. in short, I mentally take the loss before it even happens
To be frank with u, I have no clue nor do I care. This is not the account to follow if u're looking for long term predictions or what might happen next month or next year etc. Anyone who tries to predict the market long term is either full of shit or full of vague BS statements
For every 1 "pReDiCtiOn" that comes true there is another 5 that failed. So we can sit here & talk advanced fundamentals and stats all day long, trust me, I can go full nerd mode when it comes to that, and i have spreadsheets GALORE. But NONE of that matters when u trade momentum
The ONLY thing I can "predict" with a high degree of accuracy is that dumb emotional money almost always loses in the end, and that smart money (the house) almost always wins in the end. So what do i do? I just bet against dumb money. Simple as that.
9 year old daughter came pretty close on her super bowl prediction. Final score 23-20 versus her 24-18 prediction. I might have her start doing my stock data analysis from now on 😂
The power of quality over quantity never fails to amaze me. As some of u kno, ive been working on a little experiment lately (less time in front of screens, more time with family/friends, working out, hobbies etc). I 100% believed that my profits decrease during this experiment
But i was willing to pay that small price in exchange for more "balance" & a break from the "if i dont work 12-15hrs a day staring at screens then im not productive" mindset". Contrary to my expectations (that i would make LESS money), the OPPOSITE actually happened.
I reduced my "trading time" to just 3 hrs a day max (2.5 hrs in the AM to open/manage swings, and just 30min in the afternoon for market review + tracking + charts etc), and I actually made MORE money in the last few months than I did when I was spending almost ALL day on the cpu