ok I promised a thread about my current investment/"macro" (blurgh 🤮) equity plays
so here it is
fair warning, it's a long one
The general thesis is "Kardashev 0.5"
Energy sources are practically unlimited, we just haven't figured out how to reach/harness most of them
we haven't needed to because we wouldn't have been able to use it
AI and robotics changes that, to the degree that we can physically manufacture chips and servos.
Eventually, the marginal costs of compute, energy and non-creative labor will all approach 0 (I don't believe this necessarily implies AGI/ASI but that's a different conversation)
whether money will even matter at that point is debatable, but it certainly does in the interim
I've said it before but I will be running Quant Trading Bootcamp next week in Berkely CA with @tradegal_ and @_rossry!
I can't say enough about how great I think this course is but what I haven't mentioned is ALL THE OTHER BOOTCAMPS WE'RE RUNNING!
Arbor Summer Camp () is happening at Lighthaven Campus starting on Monday and there will be something like 15(!!) different bootcamps all running simultaneously so if quant trading isn't your thing, don't worry we probably still have you covered!arborsummer.camp
Founder's Circle by @akrolsmir
Are you running a startup? A charity? Some other weird, ambitious project that’s trying to do good for the world? Come debug your hardest problem, shore up fundamentals, and learn from other founders facing similar issues. arborsummer.camp/branches/found…
aka, something you can use as a framework to think about what a market is doing, when it might change and why you could potentially make money off of it:
Fair value (a thread)
this is a chart, on a timeframe, of a thing. It doesn't actually matter for the sake of our discussion what the timeframe or thing actually is.
All that matters is understanding what it is doing, and figuring out how that knowledge might help us make money in the future.
Clearly, this thing is ranging. This means it is not moving up or down on net, it is bouncing around a particular area.
Why would it do that?
I don't give a shit, who cares.
All that matters is that this asset currently likes trading around a certain price area.
on the note of funding, $OXY and $MAP are interesting case studies atm
both have funding currently paying longs in excess of 1% daily
both have also more than doubled off their recent lows.
Funding and performance must eventually reconcile. I'm long until... (cont)
...either price reverses the low-timeframe trend and aligns with the funding (resumes trending at a rate somewhere around -1%/d) or until funding (aka the premium) shrinks to reflect a more neutral view of those markets.
As of right now, the trend over the last 24 hours ( $OXY) is showing an average hourly performance of around +4.1%
The funding rate has indicated an expectation between-0.05%/h and -0.14%/h. The longer this disparity persists, the more pressure shorts will be under.
except instead of tokens, voting weight is determined by total fees paid by the protocol, time-weighted for recency
token could still be implemented, but as an overt security (entitled to revenue disbursements/dividends)
this could also be accomplished w a dual-token system, one for governance and one for dividends
the governance token could be emitted without regard to keeping market price propped up as a reward for usage, whereas the dividend token can be rewarded for utility.
this would incentivize governance token holders (aka actual users) to vote on distribution of the dividend token more judiciously in exchange for services which improve the protocol
but without handing protocol control to service providers instead of the users themselves
TIL that most of you have no concept of the difference between intrinsic value (a measure of utility) and assigned value (a measure of preference)
the market value is determined by participants' assessment of an asset's intrinsic and assigned value, plus an accessibility premium
since we all have different utility functions for both our assets and our money, the only oracle of truth we really have is the market (more accurately, the BB/O)
which is why I was picking on @DeezeFi's tweet, because right now, the market values his ape at 75ETH