I've said it before but I will be running Quant Trading Bootcamp next week in Berkely CA with @tradegal_ and @_rossry!

I can't say enough about how great I think this course is but what I haven't mentioned is ALL THE OTHER BOOTCAMPS WE'RE RUNNING! Arbor Summer Camp () is happening at Lighthaven Campus starting on Monday and there will be something like 15(!!) different bootcamps all running simultaneously so if quant trading isn't your thing, don't worry we probably still have you covered!arborsummer.camp

random discretionary trading "alpha"

aka, something you can use as a framework to think about what a market is doing, when it might change and why you could potentially make money off of it:

Fair value (a thread) this is a chart, on a timeframe, of a thing. It doesn't actually matter for the sake of our discussion what the timeframe or thing actually is.

All that matters is understanding what it is doing, and figuring out how that knowledge might help us make money in the future.

on the note of funding, $OXY and $MAP are interesting case studies atm

both have funding currently paying longs in excess of 1% daily

both have also more than doubled off their recent lows.

Funding and performance must eventually reconcile. I'm long until... (cont) ...either price reverses the low-timeframe trend and aligns with the funding (resumes trending at a rate somewhere around -1%/d) or until funding (aka the premium) shrinks to reflect a more neutral view of those markets.

a protocol run on a governance system

except instead of tokens, voting weight is determined by total fees paid by the protocol, time-weighted for recency

token could still be implemented, but as an overt security (entitled to revenue disbursements/dividends) this could also be accomplished w a dual-token system, one for governance and one for dividends

the governance token could be emitted without regard to keeping market price propped up as a reward for usage, whereas the dividend token can be rewarded for utility.

market price and intrinsic value are two totally different things

bayc isn't *worth* a penny over 0.

almost nothing in crypto is

we're all playing hot potato games, you only win if you buy for less than what someone else will later pay

but none of it has intrinsic value

https://twitter.com/DeezeFi/status/1475123297071288327

TIL that most of you have no concept of the difference between intrinsic value (a measure of utility) and assigned value (a measure of preference)

the market value is determined by participants' assessment of an asset's intrinsic and assigned value, plus an accessibility premium

Merry Christmas, here's some genuine free alpha that you can use

Funding Rate vs Realized Drift

automation not required

most of y'all think of the funding rate like RSI; negative = oversold, positive = overbought

but you're wrong, it's way more specific the funding rate on most exchanges is determined by taking the average difference between the perp price and spot asset price over [n] as a %, multiplied by n/24, where n is the number of hours per funding period. Sometimes + a default rate.

I think the biggest misconception I had about "doing quant stuff" when I first started it was thinking that I needed to automate or code everything

code is helpful, but spreadsheets, tradingview indicators and maybe some really basic CLI/terminal tools will get you v far the second-biggest misconception was that I needed a super-secret complex strategy to compete

in reality most of the mechanical/quant guys I've talked to (incl myself) just kinda found some basic inefficiencies or cheap risk to make money from regularly

it's not usually v fancy

a lot of you hope to make enough money to trade full-time

lemme give you a thought:

if you can't reasonably expect to make 10%/y with 95%+ confidence, you aren't ready.

regardless how big your balance is it's not as much about how much money you've accumulated

it's more about your expectation of return, and your variance on those returns.

Hitting one (or even a couple!) big winner(s) does not mean you're ready to trade for income unless you also have a proven record

I've not heard of watsi before, but they look about as transparent and cost-effective as it gets for charities

will be adding them to my donation list

https://twitter.com/anondeguerre/status/1473574292843597826

also as a side note, imo the coolest thing about making money is the leverage that it offers on the world around you

idc what that happens to be for you, could be charity, funding new startups, research, sponsoring an open-source dev, literally anything

here's one of my current synthetic long/short portfolio accounts (this one is a self-contained portfolio)

long 77.6% $BTC
long 151.1% $SOL
long 2.8% $ETH
short 90.4% $SRM
short 31.2% $ADA

I rebalance it every [redacted] w the goal of being 1x "long crypto" there's plenty of ways to achieve this, but I share to illustrate one of the ways that leverage can be used effectively; to balance positions against each other in order to meet a certain portfolio goal

mini-thread on managing leverage

I regularly run accounts at 3-8x leverage, not to over-size but to reduce the amount I have to keep on exchanges

but this means a bit of extra management. While trades might be sized properly, it's important to consider liquidation risk while these accounts are usually hedged to some degree (either capturing basis/funding or doing some form of pair/beta trading), even if I'm sized to lose small on a loss, the total margin is also at risk if the trade goes sideways, which means there's a risk of losing bigger

in a thread-writing mood (aka I'm bored and definitely not doing drugs)

So let's talk about volatility:

-what it is
-how it's calculated
-how it might be useful to point & click traders What it is: in plain terms, volatility is a measure of how much a trading pair's price bounces around the benchmark value, which is usually set to the average closing price.

A trading pair that spikes and drops by a lot around its average price is considered volatile.

remember kids:

if you're bidding a level and betting on a pullback, if the market is strong you're unlikely to get filled and will probably get left behind when the market rises

but if the market is weak and you misread it, you're guaranteed to get filled when the market drops don't get sidelined when you're correct, ask your doctor if using Market Orders is right for you!*

*Side effects include increased testosterone, strike rate and sex appeal. Some studies show using market orders can lower the chance of rugpull or being kicked out of the basement.

I know it's 4am but I don't know what a schedule is so here's an article about market-making

gives a very general overview of how it works, very basic strategy and how to think about it

does not cover implementation (aka, coding a bot)

idrawcharts.medium.com/how-market-mak… there's a ton of stuff I didn't mention or talk about (might do a part 2 later) but this kinda gives a very elementary example of thinking from a MM's perspective

this is a shot at chamath lmao

but also highlights importance of trade conviction and sizing

common advice is to gradually scale out of winners, but if you're early in something and it's starting to prove that it'll deliver?

double down dude

https://twitter.com/kyled116/status/1456093579030327298

obviously VC and PE work a little differently than slinging shitcoins

but for those of us doing the latter, we have the ability to throw tiny amounts of money at a ridiculous number of projects very early

if they fail, so what, it was tiny. But the ones that start to succeed...

yo @SBF_FTX @FTX_Official random idea inspired by my twitter feed

what about like a panic button for account security

that lets users immediately hard-lock their account from all logins/changes/withdrawals on suspicion of unauthorized access until completely re-verified @SBF_FTX @FTX_Official cuz like, I can freeze my debit card or bank account if compromised and those transactions can be reversed

I'd love to be able to freeze my trading accounts because those transactions cannot be reversed.

Having available via API endpoint would be nice also in case locked out

I can't really stress this enough, if your outlook on...

- how the broad crypto market behaves
-marketcycle patterns
-capital rotation motives
-who your counterparties are

...is the same as it was 2 years ago?

I think life here is going to get much, much harder soon most of crypto is not going to trade like it used to for much longer

Think it's throwing some natives off

Less and less upside for alts bc VC capture while most non-corporate launches struggling to gain traction

That's just one example of new/different forces here to stay

if you catch 10 pumps

that each go 10x

w 10% of your portfolio at a time

you'll have made over 2000x on your total starting amount.

on $500, that's $1m.

on 10k, that's $20m.

shit REALLY adds up, there is no need to gamble or throw everything into one bag I promise, you can make way more than you think w/o risking the house every time you take a swing

ok so I always talk about having a plan for *BEFORE* things happen

so lemme just talk you through the basics of what I'm thinking and planning rn

using this chart (I watch a lot of other stuff besides charts, but this will do for the example) top grey line: previous ATH

indicator on the chart: volume profile for previous ATH distribution range. This is important.

the value area is marked by the second grey line and bottom red line

the value area mean that price was accepted into that range previously

Let's try a lil thought experiment ab trend trading, entries, sizing, risk, etc

newb friendly, but a lot of my pro friends fk this up too imo

(thread) /1 let's say my portfolio is 50k and my risk limit per trade is 2% (1k)

now let's say I think that BTC is gonna go up but I don't have a good setup or way to define my risk

so I bid 25k at the support that I hope gets tapped and place my stoploss 4% under that

Need to explain crypto/defi terms to your grandma?

Here's a handy list of crypto-native terms with a 1-tweet ELI5 explainer for each.

Bookmark the thread and if you want something added, just ask!

1/n... oh God there's gonna be so many Smart contract:

Think of it as a computer program that does one specific thing, and it's always running, just waiting for you to send some basic instructions.