David Holt 🌴 Profile picture
Nov 4, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
this is a shot at chamath lmao

but also highlights importance of trade conviction and sizing

common advice is to gradually scale out of winners, but if you're early in something and it's starting to prove that it'll deliver?

double down dude
obviously VC and PE work a little differently than slinging shitcoins

but for those of us doing the latter, we have the ability to throw tiny amounts of money at a ridiculous number of projects very early

if they fail, so what, it was tiny. But the ones that start to succeed...
...usually have a greater chance of continuing to do so

a coin that is up 100% in 2 months is much more likely to be up another 100% in the next two months than a coin that hasn't moved at all.

it's counterintuitive, but it's true
so when you start to win, fucking squeeze that opportunity and do your best to win big

don't handicap your upside as soon as it starts to arrive, increase it!

otherwise it won't matter how many things you're early to.

Nobody hits homeruns by taking half-assed swings.
the vast majority of my success in markets so far has come from 7 trades out of the thousands I've taken (ordered chronologically):

long $SHOP
short $ETH
short $ADA
long $BTC
long $FTT
long $BTC
long $SOL
each one of these trades took me to a new level in my portfolio/career that would otherwise have taken years to achieve

there's nothing wrong with piling up small wins

but every once in a while you get the chance to level up in a big way

be ready to milk them when they arrive

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with David Holt 🌴

David Holt 🌴 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @IDrawCharts

Dec 6, 2025
ok I promised a thread about my current investment/"macro" (blurgh 🤮) equity plays

so here it is

fair warning, it's a long one

The general thesis is "Kardashev 0.5"
Energy sources are practically unlimited, we just haven't figured out how to reach/harness most of them

we haven't needed to because we wouldn't have been able to use it

AI and robotics changes that, to the degree that we can physically manufacture chips and servos.
Eventually, the marginal costs of compute, energy and non-creative labor will all approach 0 (I don't believe this necessarily implies AGI/ASI but that's a different conversation)

whether money will even matter at that point is debatable, but it certainly does in the interim
Read 22 tweets
May 29, 2025
I've said it before but I will be running Quant Trading Bootcamp next week in Berkely CA with @tradegal_ and @_rossry!

I can't say enough about how great I think this course is but what I haven't mentioned is ALL THE OTHER BOOTCAMPS WE'RE RUNNING! Image
Arbor Summer Camp () is happening at Lighthaven Campus starting on Monday and there will be something like 15(!!) different bootcamps all running simultaneously so if quant trading isn't your thing, don't worry we probably still have you covered!arborsummer.camp
Founder's Circle by @akrolsmir

Are you running a startup? A charity? Some other weird, ambitious project that’s trying to do good for the world? Come debug your hardest problem, shore up fundamentals, and learn from other founders facing similar issues.
arborsummer.camp/branches/found…
Read 16 tweets
Feb 19, 2023
random discretionary trading "alpha"

aka, something you can use as a framework to think about what a market is doing, when it might change and why you could potentially make money off of it:

Fair value (a thread)
this is a chart, on a timeframe, of a thing. It doesn't actually matter for the sake of our discussion what the timeframe or thing actually is.

All that matters is understanding what it is doing, and figuring out how that knowledge might help us make money in the future. Image
Clearly, this thing is ranging. This means it is not moving up or down on net, it is bouncing around a particular area.

Why would it do that?

I don't give a shit, who cares.

All that matters is that this asset currently likes trading around a certain price area.
Read 25 tweets
Jan 25, 2022
on the note of funding, $OXY and $MAP are interesting case studies atm

both have funding currently paying longs in excess of 1% daily

both have also more than doubled off their recent lows.

Funding and performance must eventually reconcile. I'm long until... (cont)
...either price reverses the low-timeframe trend and aligns with the funding (resumes trending at a rate somewhere around -1%/d) or until funding (aka the premium) shrinks to reflect a more neutral view of those markets.
As of right now, the trend over the last 24 hours ( $OXY) is showing an average hourly performance of around +4.1%

The funding rate has indicated an expectation between-0.05%/h and -0.14%/h. The longer this disparity persists, the more pressure shorts will be under.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 26, 2021
a protocol run on a governance system

except instead of tokens, voting weight is determined by total fees paid by the protocol, time-weighted for recency

token could still be implemented, but as an overt security (entitled to revenue disbursements/dividends)
this could also be accomplished w a dual-token system, one for governance and one for dividends

the governance token could be emitted without regard to keeping market price propped up as a reward for usage, whereas the dividend token can be rewarded for utility.
this would incentivize governance token holders (aka actual users) to vote on distribution of the dividend token more judiciously in exchange for services which improve the protocol

but without handing protocol control to service providers instead of the users themselves
Read 4 tweets
Dec 26, 2021
market price and intrinsic value are two totally different things

bayc isn't *worth* a penny over 0.

almost nothing in crypto is

we're all playing hot potato games, you only win if you buy for less than what someone else will later pay

but none of it has intrinsic value
TIL that most of you have no concept of the difference between intrinsic value (a measure of utility) and assigned value (a measure of preference)

the market value is determined by participants' assessment of an asset's intrinsic and assigned value, plus an accessibility premium
since we all have different utility functions for both our assets and our money, the only oracle of truth we really have is the market (more accurately, the BB/O)

which is why I was picking on @DeezeFi's tweet, because right now, the market values his ape at 75ETH
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(