Thread by @DefenseNigeria

What the hell is going on in the Horn of Africa?

The Horn of Africa is arguably the most complex and conflicted region in Africa. Its one of the few places in the world where inter-state warfare is not a relic of the past.

Each of the countries of the Horn Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan suffers from protracted political strife and regional inter-state rivalries.

In 2019 Ethiopian Prime minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel peace prize. Shortly after Tigray rebels carried out attacks on several Ethiopian army camps, gambling on the fact that the Ethiopia's PM Abiy Ahmed will be averse to going to war months after winning the Nobel prize

It turned out to be an expensive gamble as the Ethiopian PM cast the Nobel prize aside, mobilized and deployed thousands of troops to Tigray in a campaign he vowed would be swift. Gambling on the fact that an overwhelming show of force will scare TPLF rebels into backing down.

This also turned out to be an expensive gamble, as it devolved into a protracted war that now threatens Ethiopia's capital. The Ethiopian military now sought to capture and disarm leaders of the TPLF, the dominant political force for 30 years before Abiy Ahmed took over.

With an active duty force of 5,000 the Ethiopian Air Force is small compared to Africa's Big 3, but it is by far the most potent air force in East Africa, comprising of 20 SU-27 Flankers and 10 MiG-23s, which they unleashed on TPLF rebels.

After weeks of air strikes Ethiopian forces took control of the TPLF regional capital Mekele and Abiy declared victory.

But the TPLF mounted a successful counterinsurgency. By late June the rebels took back control of the region from Ethiopian forces, inflicting heavy casualties and prompting the military to withdraw and Abiy's government to declare what he called a "humanitarian ceasefire."

The prevent further incursions into Tigray the TPLF needed a buffer. They launched offensives into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions to use them as buffers, with the aim of denying Ethiopian forces the chance to regroup and re-enter Tigray.

In response Ethiopias PM Abiy Ahmed officially designated the TPLF a terrorist group and called for mass mobilization against the TPLF.

Fighting continued, and before long the rebels took control of two strategic towns on the highway to the Ethiopian capital.

Then, to the horror of PM Abiy, an allied rebel group, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), took ground 325 kilometers north of Addis Ababa. These guys were a couple hundred kilometres shy of Addis Ababa !! The Ethiopian government declared a nationwide state of emergency

..and ordered residents of Addis Ababa to defend their neighbourhoods.

The question of whether Tigray forces will march on Addis Ababa was answered yesterday when a spokesman for the OLA told the media that the Ethiopian capital could be overrun within "months if not weeks."

To put things into perspective, picture Boko Haram and ISWAP ready to match on Abuja and take control and a panic stricken President declaring a state of emergency, urging Abuja residents to be prepared to defend their neighbourhoods.

Allowed to fester, the war has morphed into a conflict the African Union can no longer ignore, as the AU proposed a "dialogue" to resolve grievances. In August the African Union appointed former president Olusegun Obasanjo as its regional trouble shooter.

Surprisingly the Ethiopian government is having none of it. Prime Minister Abiy has framed the war as an internal "law enforcement operation" and resisted calls for mediation despite the fact that rebels are inching towards the capital.

The TPLF are now operating from a position of strenght and will likely rule out negotiations....i mean, why should they when have Addis Ababa within their crosshairs?