The Horn of Africa is arguably the most complex and conflicted region in Africa. Its one of the few places in the world where inter-state warfare is not a relic of the past.
Each of the countries of the Horn Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan suffers from protracted political strife and regional inter-state rivalries.
In 2019 Ethiopian Prime minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel peace prize. Shortly after Tigray rebels carried out attacks on several Ethiopian army camps, gambling on the fact that the Ethiopia's PM Abiy Ahmed will be averse to going to war months after winning the Nobel prize
It turned out to be an expensive gamble as the Ethiopian PM cast the Nobel prize aside, mobilized and deployed thousands of troops to Tigray in a campaign he vowed would be swift. Gambling on the fact that an overwhelming show of force will scare TPLF rebels into backing down.
This also turned out to be an expensive gamble, as it devolved into a protracted war that now threatens Ethiopia's capital. The Ethiopian military now sought to capture and disarm leaders of the TPLF, the dominant political force for 30 years before Abiy Ahmed took over.
With an active duty force of 5,000 the Ethiopian Air Force is small compared to Africa's Big 3, but it is by far the most potent air force in East Africa, comprising of 20 SU-27 Flankers and 10 MiG-23s, which they unleashed on TPLF rebels.
After weeks of air strikes Ethiopian forces took control of the TPLF regional capital Mekele and Abiy declared victory.
But the TPLF mounted a successful counterinsurgency. By late June the rebels took back control of the region from Ethiopian forces, inflicting heavy casualties and prompting the military to withdraw and Abiy's government to declare what he called a "humanitarian ceasefire."
The prevent further incursions into Tigray the TPLF needed a buffer. They launched offensives into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions to use them as buffers, with the aim of denying Ethiopian forces the chance to regroup and re-enter Tigray.
In response Ethiopias PM Abiy Ahmed officially designated the TPLF a terrorist group and called for mass mobilization against the TPLF.
Fighting continued, and before long the rebels took control of two strategic towns on the highway to the Ethiopian capital.
Then, to the horror of PM Abiy, an allied rebel group, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), took ground 325 kilometers north of Addis Ababa. These guys were a couple hundred kilometres shy of Addis Ababa !! The Ethiopian government declared a nationwide state of emergency
..and ordered residents of Addis Ababa to defend their neighbourhoods.
The question of whether Tigray forces will march on Addis Ababa was answered yesterday when a spokesman for the OLA told the media that the Ethiopian capital could be overrun within "months if not weeks."
To put things into perspective, picture Boko Haram and ISWAP ready to match on Abuja and take control and a panic stricken President declaring a state of emergency, urging Abuja residents to be prepared to defend their neighbourhoods.
Allowed to fester, the war has morphed into a conflict the African Union can no longer ignore, as the AU proposed a "dialogue" to resolve grievances. In August the African Union appointed former president Olusegun Obasanjo as its regional trouble shooter.
Surprisingly the Ethiopian government is having none of it. Prime Minister Abiy has framed the war as an internal "law enforcement operation" and resisted calls for mediation despite the fact that rebels are inching towards the capital.
The TPLF are now operating from a position of strenght and will likely rule out negotiations....i mean, why should they when have Addis Ababa within their crosshairs?
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Two days ago i received unconfirmed reports that Nigeria is interested in aquiring more combat drones from Turkey and amoured vehicles. I cannot report on it because they are "unverified" (but highly plausible) reports.
Woke up to news that a senior US senator Bob Menendez has proposed measures targeting Turkey’s defense sector exports . He introduced measures to put Turkey’s drone program under harsh scrutiny. Menendez’ seek to tighten US tracking and reporting on the national security
implications of Turkey’s drone exports. How Turkeys drone exports todeveloping countries pose a national security threat to the U.S is hard to fathtom. The senator has claimed that Turkey’s drone sales are “dangerous, destabilizing and a threat to peace and human rights.”
The vastness of the Sambisa and other forest proved to be a double edged sword. The vast featureless terrain and someitmes thick jungle canopies offered concealment and gaves insurgents enough room to manoveur. Someitmes they even attacked troops head-on.
After getting into a conventional battle with the army insurgents learned to stick to the tactics they know best : hit and runs, ambushes and surprise attacks. The vast topography gave insurgents the ability to blend into their surroundings and conceal operations.
One advantage the Nigerian army has is in terms of firepower from air support and artillery. Insurgents tried to negate this advantage on the battlefield by hitting Nigerian infantry units when it is most advantageous to them.
The Nigerian army Mechanized Infantry is finnally living up to its name. More IFV's en-route. Nigeria's quest to repair two decades of neglect is firing on all cylinders.
No less than three foreign militaries are covertly understudying the Nigerian military’s exploits in COIN operations. The United States, a traditional admirer of the Nigerian military as far as land operations is concerned, Britain and Belarus.
They are paying particular attention to how the Nigerian military cut Boko Haram’s supply line and isolated the insurgents. Admirers of the tactics are said to have described such as unbelievable even by the standards of those that have been much longer involved in COIN warfare
Nigeria's political elite areat it again. This time around the defence budget is being slashed at the most security critical period of Nigeria
since the civil war. The Chief of Army Staff declared that the reduction will affect its operational efficiency.
He specifically asked the commitee to facilitate the exclusion of the Army and other military outfits from routine annual envelope. This reduction would impede the capacity and tempo of the Nigerian Army in carrying out its constitutional duties, particularly the war against
terrorists and other criminalities across the country. He is making a passionately appeal to this committee to begin the release of year 2022 capital budget in the first. This would help the Nigerian Army to rehabilitate dilapidated training facilities across NA formations
Boko Haram has been defeated. Thats a FACT. ISWAP will meet the same fate. FACT. A third of ISWAP mid level commanders have been eviscerated. FACT. Four successive ISWAP leaders have been killed in the last month. FACT.
The embittered and western media press will beg to disagree, citing attacks on soft target's or a recent abduction as proof the Nigerian military is covering up its defeate. A deliberately deceptive analogy.
Lets leave all that aside. For the objective minded and pragmatist lets delve on a few of the factors/ weapon responsible for the degradation of Boko Haram/ISWAP, the surrender of 15,000 insurgents, the neutralization of four ISWAP commanders etc. All in a two month span.
A Nigerian Army marksman providing overwatch from a cliff for a squad clearing out an area around the Mandara Mountain axis against ISIS .
The average number of rounds expended to kill one Boko Haram insurgent with an assault rifle is 50. The average number of rounds expended by army snipers to kill one Boko Haram fighter is 1.3 rounds.
On the battlefield, one of the sniper's primary role is to scout out ahead of the main force and carry out recon/ intel gathering while remaining undetected.