So, a thread about digging out of our current hole and making the 2022 elections competitive again.
Our most important job now is to lead America through the end of COVID and into a sustained recovery. That is why Biden was elected, and it is work that is still not finished. 1/
COVID has an extraordinary trauma for everyone.
There may not be a singular event this disruptive to our basic lives again in many of our lifetimes.
Getting us through it, ending it, putting it behind us remains job #1 for Democrats. 2/
@NavigatorSurvey With vaccines for kids, new therapeutics arriving, rapid at home tests about to become ubiquitous, the ACA sign up period Dems have a clear opportunity to spend time at home educating the public, doing events about the new tools we have to defeat COVID. 5/
@NavigatorSurvey We should be doing events abt the recovery, about firms hiring, people returning to work, finding new paths in their lives, making more money, signing up for ACA.
We need to go where people are now, and this is where they are. Particularly as most of US heads back indoors. 6/
We need to spend the winter and spring getting the country past COVID. And then we can spend the summer/fall talking about the rest of the Biden agenda, the parts which haven't happened yet, may not happen until after the election.
We need to talk about what is, not will be. 7/
It's our belief Biden and the Democrats have been punished for taking our eye off the COVID/recovery ball.
BBB has been sold as something stand alone, not connected to COVID/recovery. That was a mistake, and as a political project it has failed 👇 8/
As my parents lives - their entire lives - were shaped by their experience of the Great Depression, we should expect our lives, our politics to be shaped for years/decades by COVID.
It was/is a collective trauma, one which isn't over, one we are still processing. 11/
Democrats have to get connected to this trauma, go into the trauma, go where people are, and lead them out of it successfully. That is why we were elected, and what we must do now.
"Big bold progressive" got us out of position.
It is all about leading us out of COVID. 12/
The reason BBB has tanked politically is it'has come across as something we're doing for ourselves, our politics, Washington - and not something about them, their lives, getting thru the trauma of COVID.
This is particularly true for working class folks who couldn't Zoom. 13/
Which is why my core argument is that we have to restitch the entire Biden agenda back together and sell it all through the lens of COVID/recovery - Build Back Better. Keeping it separate weakened it all.
FWIW here is the text of an email I sent widely around DC in late July warning that back to school, MAGA, COVID, CRT was going to be a huge mess and we needed to be ready.
Biden gains in new polling:
- Fox News 3 pt Biden gain (8 pts since March)
- Echelon 4 pt Biden gain
- CBS/YouGov 3 pt Biden gain
- Morning Consult 2 pt Biden gain
- Yahoo/YouGov 2 pt Biden gain
- NYT 2 pt Biden gain
Election appears to be changing now 1/ foxnews.com/official-polls…
The Politico/Ipsos poll this week found a significant potential weakening of Trump with independents and Republicans post-felony verdict. 2/
My basic take on the election:
- Joe Biden is a good POTUS. The country is better off. We have a 💪case to make
- The Dem Party is strong and winning elections all over the country
- They have Trump - the ugliest political thing we've ever seen
More 👇3/ hopiumchronicles.com/p/making-june-…
In May 272,000 jobs were created in US, far exceeding expectations. Wage growth was robust. My job tracker now comes in at:
33.8m jobs - 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
15.6m jobs - 3+ yrs Biden
1.9m jobs - 16 yrs 2 Bushes, Trump
Biden 8x jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents *combined* 1/
The job creation rate has been 40x greater per month under Biden than under the last 3 GOP Presidents.
Last month's 272,000 jobs is over 2 years of GOP growth in a single month. 2/
Since 1989 and a new age of globalization began, 51m jobs have been created in America. 49m of those have been created under Dem Presidents - essentially all of them. Only 1 US political party been good at this capitalism thing - the Democrats. 3/
Very much enjoyed this smart @RonBrownstein @CNN deep dive into data suggesting that Biden is doing better with voters more likely to vote in 2024, and Trump is doing a bit better with a wider electorate that includes many disinterested voters. 1/
To me the biggest question is what happens with those disinterested voters who go through the process of becoming a voter. Will they come to vote more like those who are paying closer attention and become more Dem and help Biden win? I think this is the likely scenario. 2/
In election after election since Dobbs when voters have been given the choice between pragmatic Ds and extremist MAGAs voters have chosen Dems.
Our well-funded and muscular campaigns have put this choice to voters repeatedly, and we keep winning 👇3/
In 2022 Rs worked hard to craft the false "red wave" narrative about the election.
They're doing it again this year - lies about size of crowds, fundraising; claiming polling lead when there isn't one; showy events in D states, voting groups. 1/
This bravado is covering for very weak GOP, who've been losing elections across US, struggling to raise hard dollars, underperforming public polls in primaries, dozens of party leaders indicted, natl campaign a shambles, more "bad candidate" problems 2/
While Rs are weak, Ds are strong: winning elections across US since Dobbs, meaningful hard dollar/organizational advantages, encouraging Senate/House polling, D Govs in 5 of 7 battleground states, Biden has been good President/country is better off 👇 3/
Like other recent polls we see MI/PA/WI up for grabs and Biden performing better among LVs.
NYT LVs, Biden-Trump:
MI 47-46
PA 45-48
WI 46-47 (Biden leads among RVs)
More on why Biden's strength w/LVs matters below: 1/
As with other recent polling, findings about life satisfaction remain remarkably high.
74% satisfied
22% not satisfied
Simply there is not broad discontent in America, part of why Dems keep winning elections across US. 2/
The big finding in these NYT polls is Biden's weakness with young and people of color. Recent large sample polls had very different results with 18-29 year olds:
In other news it is now undeniable that there is a Russian fifth column operating in United States trying to destroy the country and the global democracy movement from within.
In the last week Kennedy made it clear he is seeking to become a leader of this fifth column.
That MAGA is a Russian fifth column is now being openly discussed by Republican leaders themselves as they look on in horror at what has become of the party of Reagan.
Could RFK have constructed a more pro-Russian position?
“This is the reality that every American Citizen faces — from Ed Snowden, to Julian Assange to the J6 activists sitting in a Washington DC jail cell stripped of their Constitutional liberties.”