So, a thread about digging out of our current hole and making the 2022 elections competitive again.
Our most important job now is to lead America through the end of COVID and into a sustained recovery. That is why Biden was elected, and it is work that is still not finished. 1/
COVID has an extraordinary trauma for everyone.
There may not be a singular event this disruptive to our basic lives again in many of our lifetimes.
Getting us through it, ending it, putting it behind us remains job #1 for Democrats. 2/
@NavigatorSurvey With vaccines for kids, new therapeutics arriving, rapid at home tests about to become ubiquitous, the ACA sign up period Dems have a clear opportunity to spend time at home educating the public, doing events about the new tools we have to defeat COVID. 5/
@NavigatorSurvey We should be doing events abt the recovery, about firms hiring, people returning to work, finding new paths in their lives, making more money, signing up for ACA.
We need to go where people are now, and this is where they are. Particularly as most of US heads back indoors. 6/
We need to spend the winter and spring getting the country past COVID. And then we can spend the summer/fall talking about the rest of the Biden agenda, the parts which haven't happened yet, may not happen until after the election.
We need to talk about what is, not will be. 7/
It's our belief Biden and the Democrats have been punished for taking our eye off the COVID/recovery ball.
BBB has been sold as something stand alone, not connected to COVID/recovery. That was a mistake, and as a political project it has failed 👇 8/
As my parents lives - their entire lives - were shaped by their experience of the Great Depression, we should expect our lives, our politics to be shaped for years/decades by COVID.
It was/is a collective trauma, one which isn't over, one we are still processing. 11/
Democrats have to get connected to this trauma, go into the trauma, go where people are, and lead them out of it successfully. That is why we were elected, and what we must do now.
"Big bold progressive" got us out of position.
It is all about leading us out of COVID. 12/
The reason BBB has tanked politically is it'has come across as something we're doing for ourselves, our politics, Washington - and not something about them, their lives, getting thru the trauma of COVID.
This is particularly true for working class folks who couldn't Zoom. 13/
Which is why my core argument is that we have to restitch the entire Biden agenda back together and sell it all through the lens of COVID/recovery - Build Back Better. Keeping it separate weakened it all.
FWIW here is the text of an email I sent widely around DC in late July warning that back to school, MAGA, COVID, CRT was going to be a huge mess and we needed to be ready.
OMG @YouTube my video about the 2024 election was just taken down because I criticized Robert Kennedy for his anti-vaxx views and the impact they would have if implemented. You have to be kidding me.
Heading into Election night, Trump:
- is not leading in the battleground early vote
- is not leading in the polls or w/most forecasters
- did not raise more money, have more volunteers, or have anywhere as big crowds as Harris
There is no data right now suggesting he's winning
Some Election Day thoughts:
- Ds been overperforming since Dobbs, likely to do so again today. Dobbs before/after moment in US politics.
- Early vote, polling got better for Harris this week. Ds enter E-D in stronger battleground EV position than 2020. Encouraging sign. 1/
- The money, sweat and power of Dem grassroots needs far more attention. Dems now have a structural hard dollar advantage up/down the ticket, giving us bigger, more muscular campaigns w/vastly more volunteers.
VP @KamalaHarris has just turned in one of the greatest performances by an American politician in modern history. So many things could have tripped her up. None of them did. Extraordinary candidate, extraordinary campaign. She will be a great President for all of us. 3/
Via TargetEarly, it is now official - Dems head into E-Day in a stronger position in the battleground early vote than 2020. More D post-Dobbs overperformance.
Rs big campaign to make gains in the early vote has failed, and their EV "memos" are just pure bullshit.
Cannot overstate how delusional and full of lying and fuckery Trump/right spin has been:
- flooding the zone with red wave polls
- outright lies about the early vote
- memory holing 2 1/2 years of GOP poll underperformance incl Trump
- Polymarket Voodoo!
I go deeper into latest polling/early vote data below.
The bottom line - the election is clearly breaking towards us now. Harris just had best week of polling. Early vote is good, keeps getting better. Red wave polls sign of Trumpian desperation.
Early vote notes, via TargetEarly:
- Ds running much better in battleground than natl early vote (=better campaign)
- Ds running even w/Rs in battleground vs. 2020
- Ds running ahead of 2020 in GA/MI/NE-2/WI
- Ds closing gap in AZ/NC/NV/PA
Rs not winning battleground early vote
And a general reminder that Rs would not be flooding the zone with dozens of polls and creating betting market voodoo if they believed they were winning the election and everything was fine. You only cheat when you are losing.
When I say AZ/NC/NV/PA are closing the gap I mean against how we are performed there vs 2020. While we have a lead in the raw vote in PA, we are not performing there as well as we did in 2020. All of this data is vs. 2020.
Red wave 2024 update:
- 70+ polls in the averages, 31 right-aligned groups have released polls since August
- Polymarket, Elon 2024 escalations
- Late last week they worked the natl polling average, moved it down, started spinning early vote hard 👇 1/ hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-an…
Part of their new efforts to drive the natl polling average down is addition of a TIPP daily tracking poll. Predictably, and perhaps comically, it showed the race - all of a sudden! - breaking to Trump after 6 weeks of a remarkably stable race and a bad media week for Trump 2/
Last Wed I did a polling roundup. Polling continued to be remarkably stable. 538 natl average actually ticked up for us that week. We were +4 and stable in Econ/YouGov, +5 in Marist, +4 in Morning Consult, NYT, +3 CBS, ABC. Steady as she goes. 3/ hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-new-polls-…