Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 4, 2021 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
So, a thread about digging out of our current hole and making the 2022 elections competitive again.

Our most important job now is to lead America through the end of COVID and into a sustained recovery. That is why Biden was elected, and it is work that is still not finished. 1/
COVID has an extraordinary trauma for everyone.

There may not be a singular event this disruptive to our basic lives again in many of our lifetimes.

Getting us through it, ending it, putting it behind us remains job #1 for Democrats. 2/

ndn.org/3-reasons-why-…
Using @NavigatorSurvey data I modeled out the top issues for what would be typical Dem swing district right now:

COVID 64%
Econ/Jobs 60%
Climate/Extreme Weather 40%
Health Care 39%

This is our map, our guide for where we have to spend our time these next six months. 3/
@NavigatorSurvey The lesson of 2010 is that Dems have to not just do good things, we have to GET CREDIT FOR DOING THEM.

The thing that is and will be most important in 2022 will be whether we can say we defeated COVID, got the economy on track, life back to normal. 4/

ndn.org/time-for-dems-…
@NavigatorSurvey With vaccines for kids, new therapeutics arriving, rapid at home tests about to become ubiquitous, the ACA sign up period Dems have a clear opportunity to spend time at home educating the public, doing events about the new tools we have to defeat COVID. 5/
@NavigatorSurvey We should be doing events abt the recovery, about firms hiring, people returning to work, finding new paths in their lives, making more money, signing up for ACA.

We need to go where people are now, and this is where they are. Particularly as most of US heads back indoors. 6/
We need to spend the winter and spring getting the country past COVID. And then we can spend the summer/fall talking about the rest of the Biden agenda, the parts which haven't happened yet, may not happen until after the election.

We need to talk about what is, not will be. 7/
It's our belief Biden and the Democrats have been punished for taking our eye off the COVID/recovery ball.

BBB has been sold as something stand alone, not connected to COVID/recovery. That was a mistake, and as a political project it has failed 👇 8/

ndn.org/time-for-dems-…
So, our plan for Dem success in 2022:

focus on defeating COVID, securing the recovery, getting back to normal

Then sell the rest of the agenda, particularly the climate provisions

Define GOP/MAGA as extreme/unfit

Use new tools to drive turnout 9/

ndn.org/3-reasons-why-…
We can, should view activism around schools as part of what may be years of unsettled post-COVID politics.

Everyday we read about people rethinking their lives. Many have been home w/kids, been thinking a lot about them, their schools. Front of mind. 10/

As my parents lives - their entire lives - were shaped by their experience of the Great Depression, we should expect our lives, our politics to be shaped for years/decades by COVID.

It was/is a collective trauma, one which isn't over, one we are still processing. 11/
Democrats have to get connected to this trauma, go into the trauma, go where people are, and lead them out of it successfully. That is why we were elected, and what we must do now.

"Big bold progressive" got us out of position.

It is all about leading us out of COVID. 12/
The reason BBB has tanked politically is it'has come across as something we're doing for ourselves, our politics, Washington - and not something about them, their lives, getting thru the trauma of COVID.

This is particularly true for working class folks who couldn't Zoom. 13/
Which is why my core argument is that we have to restitch the entire Biden agenda back together and sell it all through the lens of COVID/recovery - Build Back Better. Keeping it separate weakened it all.

More on this below: 14/

ndn.org/3-reasons-why-…
FWIW here is the text of an email I sent widely around DC in late July warning that back to school, MAGA, COVID, CRT was going to be a huge mess and we needed to be ready.

Some took action on it. Others didn't. 15/

ndn.org/my-warning-dem…

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More from @SimonWDC

Apr 8
In other news it is now undeniable that there is a Russian fifth column operating in United States trying to destroy the country and the global democracy movement from within.

In the last week Kennedy made it clear he is seeking to become a leader of this fifth column.
That MAGA is a Russian fifth column is now being openly discussed by Republican leaders themselves as they look on in horror at what has become of the party of Reagan.

Could RFK have constructed a more pro-Russian position?

“This is the reality that every American Citizen faces — from Ed Snowden, to Julian Assange to the J6 activists sitting in a Washington DC jail cell stripped of their Constitutional liberties.”

washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/…
Read 4 tweets
Apr 6
With another roaring jobs report - 303,000!!! - my monthly jobs tracker now comes in at:

33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
15.2m jobs = 3+ yrs Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs 2 Bushes, Trump

8 times more Biden jobs than last 3 R Presidents COMBINED. 1/ Image
The rate of job growth has been 40 times higher under Biden than it was under the last 3 GOP Presidents. 40 times. Last month's 303,000 jobs would be 2 1/2 years of job growth under Republicans. 2/ Image
Since 1989 51 million jobs have been created in America. 49 million - 96% - of those have been created under Democratic Presidents. Essentially all of them, over 3 and half decades. 3/ Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28
Morning after Michigan thread:
- Biden wins big, breaks 80%, uncommitted at a very modest 13%. Opposition to Biden foreign policy limited, but intense.
- Trump underperforms public polling again, 4th state in a row. Trump/RNC are struggling. More 👇1/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/bidens-succe…
For Dems, big takeaway - there just isn't a big backlash in party against Biden's handling of Israel-Hamas:
- Uncommitted got 11% vs Obama in 2012, 13% vs Biden
- In Econ/YouGov Dems approve of Biden for pol 71-21, 18-29s year olds give good marks. 2/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/joe-biden-is…
As @Lawrence and I discussed last night on @TheLastWord, Dems are having a real debate about foreign policy right now, and that's healthy. What democracies do.

Biden has work to do to get his coalition together, as all candidates do 8-9 months out. 3/

Read 6 tweets
Feb 21
Stop calling Trump a strong candidate. He
- isn't leading or favored in national polling 👇
- was outraised by Nikki Haley last month
- is burning through $$$$
- underperformed NH polls by 10-15 pts
- is losing all his court cases, badly
- his party is broke, struggling
- NY-3!
The GOP = unprecedented shitshow:
- got beat in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, struggling in early 2024
- leadership ousted, dozens indicted
- broke, burning cash
- House Members abandoning ship
- flacking Russia disinfo, serially betraying the country
- nominee is bat shit crazy
Listen to this interview.

THIS IS A MASSIVE SCANDAL. It’s an unbelievable betrayal of the country. Media has to stop covering these guys as any thing other than rancid Russian fifth columnists.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 14
As we await the results of NY-3 tonight, a reminder that the Democratic Party has been on a remarkable run of late.

More in my analysis below, and a few points here in a thread. 1/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-democrat…
Dems have won more votes in 7 of past 8 Presidential elections, the best popular vote run of an American political party in history.

In the last 4 Pres elections, we've averaged 51%, Rs 46%. It's our best run since FDR's 4 elections 80+ yrs ago. 2/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-democrat…
In 2016 Trump barely prevailed, even with:
- extraordinary intervention by Russia
- decapitation of the DNC
- FBI's unprecedented intervention

He never was a strong candidate, with a special connection to the electorate. Polls weren't wrong - Comey changed election at end. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Feb 2
Holy moly - a huge jobs report!

479,000 new jobs with revisions, average hourly earnings up 0.6 in a single month! Let's get to the mighty monthly jobs thread...

33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
14.8m jobs = 3 yrs Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs 2 Bushes, Trump 1/ Image
Jobs have been created at more than 40 times the rate under Biden as under the last 3 GOP Presidents.

Note that R Presidents averaged 120,000 jobs created PER YEAR for 16 yrs, while 353,000 were created LAST MONTH alone. 2/ Image
Since 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell and a new age of globalization began, 51 million net new jobs have been created in America.

49 million of those, 96%, have been created under Democratic Presidents. Essentially all of them. 3/ Image
Read 10 tweets

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