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Judd Legum Profile picture
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4 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
I do not know what will happen in 2022 or 2024.

But one thing I do know is that you can safely ignore all the hand-wringing and prognostications based on 2021.

This happens after every election and its usually wrong.

popular.info/p/one-thought-…
After the 2004 election, we were told Democrats faced "a long-term disadvantage in future races for the White House and battles for Congress" because of their inability to compete in the South

4 years later Obama won the presidency, winning FL, NC, & VA

popular.info/p/one-thought-…
After Obama won again in 2012, we were told that "demography" meant that Republicans would never win another presidential election by firing up its base of older white men

4 years later, Trump won by employing the strategy pundits said would never work

popular.info/p/one-thought-…
After 4 years of Trump, things changed again.

The point is not that Democrats will do well in 2022. I don't know what will happen. The point is that politics is much more dynamic than political punditry suggests.

popular.info/p/one-thought-…

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More from @JuddLegum

Judd Legum Profile picture
3 Nov
1. Much of the corporate opposition to Build Back Better was based on the increase in the corporate tax rate

That's been dropped, so we decided to check in w/some corporations.

The responses we received were EXTRAORDINARY

Follow along if interested

popular.info/p/gm-says-it-s…
2. The primary tension is many corporations have declared the need for URGENT action on climate.

And BBB still contains historic investments to combat climate change

At the same time, these corporations are members of lobbying groups trying to kill BBB

popular.info/p/gm-says-it-s…
3. In response for request for comment, @GM said that it:

A. Supports the Build Back Better framework and the climate provisions

B. Supports @BizRoundtable's lobbying campaign to kill Build Back Better.

Seriously.

popular.info/p/gm-says-it-s… Image
Read 7 tweets
Judd Legum Profile picture
2 Nov
1. Regardless of the outcome in VA today, everyone should familiarize themselves about hyper-politicization of school boards and the dark money groups behind it

This playbook will be repeated in hundreds of races across the country in 2022

Follow along if interested.
2. There are parents genuinely upset about schools.

But they are being organized/incited/misinformed by a constellation of dark money advocacy groups

Many of the groups were founded this year and there is no information about their funding

popular.info/p/the-right-wi…
3. Although we don't know the precise funding of these dark money groups (that's by design) we do know their leaders

And many of them have longstanding ties to organizations funded by the Koch network

It mirrors the Koch effort to finance the Tea Party

popular.info/p/the-right-wi…
Read 10 tweets
Judd Legum Profile picture
2 Nov
1. Glenn Youngkin could win today but just in case his campaign is claiming that, if he does lose, it's because of election fraud.

Trump is reinforcing these messages.

popular.info/p/youngkin-cam…
2. State Senator Amanda Chase (R) has emerged as a key surrogate for Youngkin. She's campaigned alongside him and held other events solo.

"I know how Democrats are cheating," Chase said in a 10/27 interview.

She repeated those claims on Facebook.

popular.info/p/youngkin-cam…
3. Youngkin and his campaign linked arms with Chase knowing exactly what she was about.

After the 2020 election, Chase encouraged Trump to declare martial law.

She was censured by the Virginia Senate for calling the Jan 6 riots "patriots"

popular.info/p/youngkin-cam…
Read 9 tweets
Judd Legum Profile picture
31 Oct
1. I just talked to the woman whose presentation is featured in Youngkin's closing ad

She says the ad misrepresents one slide to invent "a conversation that never happened"

"I was not advocating for teachers to teach Critical Race Theory to students"

popular.info/p/the-truth-ab…
2. Youngkin's ad claims to contain "newly unearthed documents" which it presents as proof that McAuliffe's administration "actively pushed" K-12 students to be taught CRT

It turns out that is a lie

popular.info/p/the-truth-ab…
3. The "documents" are a 2015 presentation by Brenda Walker, a professor at University of South Florida

It was given as part of an institute about STUDENT DISCIPLINE. The purpose of the program was "to provide alternatives to out-of-school suspensions"

popular.info/p/the-truth-ab…
Read 10 tweets
Judd Legum Profile picture
29 Oct
1. Absolutely puzzled by people who think the infrastructure bill is a key issue in the Virginia gubernatorial election.

Seems like these folks haven't been paying attention to the Virginia election.

It's become all about EDUCATION
2. And when I say education, I don't mean education POLICY.

I mean demagoguing about Critical Race Theory, mask mandates, "pornography," and book banning.

This effort is backed by a constellation of newly-formed dark money groups

popular.info/p/the-right-wi…
3. McAuliffe has not been adequately prepared for this attack. When confronted with an issue of "pornography" in school libraries, he accepted the false premise that the issue was related to a bill he had vetoed.

It was not.

popular.info/p/how-virginia…
Read 5 tweets
Judd Legum Profile picture
28 Oct
This tweet says absolutely nothing and explicitly opens the door to Sinema demanding future cuts.

This statement itself illustrates that she is not involved in “good faith” negotiations, which involves actually making commitments
I'm honestly perplexed at this entire situation. The entire focus for weeks would be to establish a framework that Sinema and Manchin would agree to. Now we have a framework announced and Sinema and Manchin have not agreed. What's going on?
You've either agreed to a framework, or you haven't. They have not.
Read 6 tweets

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