Article 16 update: growing expectation that the UK will trigger. Much more intense discussion in the European Commission about how the EU shd respond
2/ While the Commission has avoided detailed discussion till now with member states, preferring to regard it as hypothetical, there are more contacts now with capitals
3/ There’s a belief that the UK may be miscalculating the EU’s response, ie that we’ll get into a slow period of legal action in which the UK suspends its Protocol obligations and things will then drag on thru a process
4/ However, the view is that the EU’s response could be much swifter and more “radical” than expected.
5/ This *could* include termination of the TCA, or a suspension, which would require respectively 12 and nine mths notice
6/ This reflects growing exasperation among member states at the UK tactics, and the need to draw a line under the issue. Some capitals already believe the @MarosSefcovic package of measures goes too far
7/ Any big EU response would probably require an emergency EU summit - shd be stressed, however, that this is all still in the realm of discussion/preparation
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