THE BIG GAME: The Chinese Communist Party wants to crush liberal democracies and dominate the world order. China wants to conquer and subdue the free and sovereign island for the same reasons Russia invades and murders the people of Ukraine or Georgia.
Taiwan is our first line of defence against Chinese aggression, the same way Ukraine is facing Russian hostilities.
That is why we are opening our@_EuropeanValues office in Taipei.
Our plan is simple: We will cooperate with the best global experts on understanding the Chinese threat:
Like the Taiwanese Defence Ministry think-tank @INDSRTW.
What can persuade Chinese leadership why NOT to invade Taiwan.
1) military deterrence: United States, Japan & Australia
2) political + economic deterrence: Europeans need to make sure Chinese leaders know it would have major political and economic costs for China in Europe.
A successful European deterrence strategy for Taiwan:
would make Chinese leadership assess that European response would be like after 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine = sectoral and oligarchic structurally-targeted sanctions, and mid-level international diplomatic isolation
An unsuccessful European deterrence strategy:
like after the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia: no systematic sanctions, no diplomatic isolation, effectively business as usual and increasing Western attempts to appease the aggressor.
Like the 1938 Munich Agreement.
Taiwan is a great knowledge base for understanding Chinese political, intelligence and military leadership, and it also has amazing expertise on technological research and ways for protecting it from Chinese espionage.
Europeans (including NATO leaders) want that knowledge.
That’s why we have decided to set up our office in Taipei, being the first private European think-tank to do so.
We are not doing it only for Taiwan, it is a European defense strategy it a global confrontation with the Chinese Communist Party.
We need Taiwan’s experiential knowledge of the Chinese threat to our collective security.
In turn, we can contribute to defending the existence of a free Taiwan by clearly signaling to Beijing:” If you invade or blockade Taiwan, you will lose the European market.”
We need to tell the Chinese leadership loud and clear:
Attacking Taiwan means China will lose remaining friends and appeasers the same way Adolf Hitler did when he attacked Poland in September 1939 or Vladimir Putin after invading Ukraine in 2014.
We stand strong with Taiwan.
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@_EuropeanValues team led by myself, @yehaoqin, @ZuzaZhenzhi & David Toman spent a week in Tokyo talking to our Japanese friends.
We have signed cooperation plan with @UTokyo_Rcast of @UTokyo_News at the Czech Embassy in Tokyo @Czechia_JP, thanks to support of Czech Ambassador Martin Klučar.
What have we learned during almost 30 meetings & briefings from our Japanese counterparts?
During a public symposium at @UTokyo_News led by @AkiraIgata, we discussed with experts, diplomats and students on European dependencies on will of the Chinese Communist Party, reasons behind Czech and Lithuanian proactive cooperation with Taiwan or lessons for electric car industry between Europe and Japan.
Without naming the sources, here is what I heard from many of Japanese government officials and non-governmental experts. Obviously, this is not official public policy of Japan, more like my own impression of what I heard across the meetings in Tokyo:
- Japan is like Poland of Asia. Main U.S. ally, strategic view of the main regional enemy, urgent military build-up, national consensus on what needs to be done.
- Japan is really getting ready to defend from Chinese attack on their region - most likely scenario is Chinese blockade of Taiwan with huge impact on Japan
- Japanese military and intelligence apparatus is boosting its capabilities very very quickly as they believe possible large war might be just a few years away, if China decides for it
- Japanese government is one of few ones really pushing its large businesses to decrease their dependency on Chinese market so an economic collapse does not happen in case of large crisis initiated by China
- Japan is scared by possible Trump presidency and its unpredictability which inly motivates Japanese military & economic security build-up to be ready to face Chinese hostilities possibly alone in a small coalition, in worst case scenario
- Japan really wants substantial @NATO -Japan cooperation, as agreed in official action plan. Many Japanese officials are visibly pissed off about France openly blocking Japan-NATO cooperation. I have never seen any other Asian friends swear so hard about any other democracy like they do about France, considering it a betrayal and France selling out Japanese security to Chinese Communists
- Japan really understands how deterring China from attacking Taiwan is the only way to have global peace survive because Chinese attack on Taiwan would quickly escalate to a globally devastating conflict
- since we are the only EU think-tank with permanent presence & team in Taipei, this was of huge interest of our Japanese partners who asked like "why do almost no Europeans care about protecting Taiwan if you are completely dependent on Taiwanese semiconductors?"
How Indo-Pacific military & policy leaders see the upcoming conflict with Chinese Communists?
What should Europeans be doing to help?
I spent the past week in Honolulu at @PacificForum Integrated Deterrence conference led by @JohnHemmings2 and consulting with allied military folks present.
Here are my take-aways, few on-record by senior leaders, rest are my personal lessons:
First, @INDOPACOM Commander Admiral John Aquilino, commanding approx. 375 000 troops, making him one of the most important (operational-level) commanders of the free world today. He said (rough quotes):
- we are in most dangerous time of last four decades, listing China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and extremists as threats, often they are very interconnected
- China presses for its illegal claim over the Philippines, ignoring valid international court ruling
- I do need your voice, dear allies and partners, we must all say what is the threat. We must be a team or we will be run over.
- when times comes for shooting, I do not care about details, I only care if it hits. We will need to hit thousand of targets.
- our goals: 1) prevent this conflict (with China), 2) if we cannot prevent, fight like hell to win
- on how he is trying to do quick changes in generally rigid systems: „the only thing which likes changes is wet baby“
Second, @USPacificFleet Admiral Samuel Paparo spoke about how the possible strategic-level conflict in the region could look like. It was pretty chilling.
And how systematically is China preparing for an offensive war.
If Alaska becomes a target of Chinese attack, US can activate (NATO Article 5) for collective defense.
THREAD: NEW CHINESE ELITE CAPTURE TACTICS IN CZECHIA
After 2 most pro-China political parties (Social Dems and Communists) dropped out of Czech Parliament in late 2021, a pro-U.S./Taiwan 5-party government rules in Prague. China lost all major political allies in Czech politics.
In early 2023, very pro-Taiwan President Petr Pavel replaced pro-China President Miloš Zeman.
Among business, PPF Group which served as most pro-China lobbying body for almost 10 years, is now being pushed out of Chinese market.
.@prezidentpavel: „Chinese mil action ag Taiwan would break not only all principles our societies are built on but also internationally recognised rules-based order. (..) disruption of world trade (..) Taiwan is leading producer of critical commodities but also trade routes (..)"
(THREAD) CZECH COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE CHIEF ON DEFENDING TAIWAN:
Director of Czech counter-intelligence agency (@biscz) Michal Koudelka recently visited Taiwan. Here is what he told Czech journalist @okundra (@RESPEKT_CZ):
„This threat is serious but not imminent at this moment. It is important that we show maximal international unity towards Taiwan. (We should) declare international preparedness to defend Taiwan if it gets attacked, to show to China (...)
(..) "that any attack will massively not pay off. I am certain that China closely watches the same unity which international community shown to Russia over Ukraine, we need to continue in this to make sure China understands this (attacking Taiwan) is not the way forward."
Czechia elected @general_pavel as new President. 5 yr term starts on March 8. In 2018, retired from active duty as 4-star army general after leading Czech army & NATO Military Committee. The most internationally successful Czech soldier ever had
.@general_pavel spent his senior career in military diplomacy. As Chairman of NATO Military Committee, he was tasked in 2017 to negotiate with Russian military to de-escalate over NATO-Russia incidents. He know how to deal with Russian terrorists.
New Czech President spent his career in leading Czech Special Forces and later the whole Czech military, becoming Chief of General Staff in 2012 - 2014.
In his early career, he received highest French state medal for saving over 50 French soldiers in Bosnia in 1993.