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Nov 5, 2021 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The Michigan Independent Redistricting Commission continues its work, having released several new draft maps for public comment. They will be voting on these maps on December 30, so we encourage Michiganders to speak up about what they like and don't like in these drafts.
Apple gets a B overall, with an A in Partisan Fairness, a C in competitiveness, and an F in Geography.

Birch and Chestnut get As overall and in Partisan Fairness, with Cs in Competitiveness and Geography.
We'd anticipate all three maps electing a 7D-6R delegation, but Chestnut has 5 competitive seats, Birch 4, and Apple 3.

All three maps have 2 districts with a BVAP above 40%.
Next is the State Senate proposal, Cherry v. 2.

We give it a B overall and in Partisan Fairness, with Cs in Competitiveness and Geography.

We expect it to elect a 21D-17R Senate, which is a slight Democratic advantage. The map has 6 competitive seats.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…
The proposed map has 5 districts at or above 40% BVAP.
Finally, the State House proposal, Pine v. 5.

We give it a C overall, with a B in Partisan Fairness, a C in Competitiveness, and an F in Geography.

We'd expect it to elect a 59D-51R House, with 21 competitive seats.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…
It has 21 seats with a BVAP over 30%, 1 with an HVAP just under 40%, and 1 with an AVAP just under 30%.
We'd be remiss not to point out that our Report Card does not score the Michigan maps on all of the criteria that the Commission was required to consider. It does not score based on Communities of Interest or compliance with the VRA.
So folks in Michigan - take a moment, speak up about what you'd like to see, and support the Commission in their tremendous work.

#PGP_MI #MIPol #Redistricting #FairMaps

@RedistrictingMI

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More from @princetongerry

Dec 16, 2021
The Pennsylvania Legislative Redistricting Commission released draft State House and State Senate maps and we've got grades.

Importantly, these maps are now subject to 30 days of public comment, after which adjustments can be made and another vote will be held.
First up is the State House map. It gets a C overall and in Partisan Fairness, with an F in Competitiveness and a B in Geography.

We'd anticipate somewhere in the neighborhood of 102 Democratic leaning seats, a bare majority in the chamber.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…
Note that our grading system penalizes a map that gets an F in Competitiveness by lowering the Partisan Fairness score by 1 letter. So this map has a B in Partisan Fairness, but deflated by low competition. It has 17 competitive seats and it would take 25 to get a C.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 6, 2021
Note that the use of the ensemble to evaluate maps with four or fewer districts risks obscuring the influence that a single district change in either Partisan Fairness or Competitiveness can make to overall letter grades. (1/5)
And, more importantly, this matters to how residents who live in these states will experience these maps. Letter grades, in the cases of extremely low-district states, should be considered secondarily to other metrics provided. (2/5)
It is important, in these instances, for mapmakers to consider other criteria, such as Communities of Interest, Minority Composition, and state-specific criteria, in both line drawing and evaluation. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Nov 6, 2021
We have grades out for the Ohio Democratic Second Draft Congressional Proposal.

It gets an A overall and in Partisan Fairness, with Cs in Competitiveness and Geography.

It would elect a 9R-6D delegation from OH to Congress.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…
It has three competitive seats that all lean R (OH-7 (Medina and Ashland), 10 (Dayton) and 14 (Youngstown)), but in certain years, could elect a Democrat.
It has one district with a BVAP over 40% (OH-11, Cleveland). OH-3 (Columbus) has an MVAP over 40%.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 6, 2021
We have grades out for the Utah legislature's proposed maps. These maps are going to a public hearing on Monday, so folks in Utah should speak up about what they like and don't like in these maps.

#PGP_UT #UTPol #Redistricting #FairMaps Image
First up is the Congressional map. It gets an A overall and in Partisan Fairness, with Cs in Competitiveness and Geography.

It would elect 0 Democrats and has no competitive seats, largely because it splits Salt Lake City across all four districts.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-… ImageImage
It's important to emphasize that our ensemble is less useful in states with four or fewer districts - it's really important that folks look at other factors, including Communities of Interest, like those gathered by @Representable_ here: representable.org/map/ut/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 5, 2021
Georgia has released a new State Senate draft plan and we've got a Report Card out.

It gets an F overall and in Partisan Fairness and Competitiveness, with a C in Geography.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…
We'd expect it to elect 33 R and 23 D, with the current Senate split 34R-22D. It would have only 1 competitive seat.

It has 16 districts with a BVAP over 40% and 1 with an HVAP over 40.
This map gets the same grades as the prior map draft, would elect the same number of Senators from each party, has the same number of competitive seats, and has roughly similar minority composition numbers.

That earlier draft is here: gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
Nov 3, 2021
North Carolina's special session on redistricting continues and we've got report cards out for the latest iterations of the state house and state senate maps, as well as a reminder of our report cards for the Congressional map.

#FairMaps #Redistricting #NCPol #PGP_NC
First, the State House map, HSA-9, also known as HB 976.

It gets an F overall and in Partisan Fairness, a C in Competitiveness and a B in Geography.

It would elect 70R-50D and has 17 competitive seats.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…
It has 12 districts with a BVAP over 40%, 1 with an AVAP over 35%, and one with an NVAP over 40% (NC-47, around Lumberton).
Read 7 tweets

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