A Twitter primer on the canonical link the linear exponential family. I've used this combination in a few of my papers: the doubly robust estimators for estimating average treatment effects, improving efficiency in RCTs, and, most recently, nonlinear DiD.
The useful CL/LEF combinations are: 1. linear mean/normal 2. logistic mean/Bernoulli (binary fractional) 3. logistic mean/binomial (0 <= Y <= M) 4. exponential mean/Poisson (Y >= 0) 5. logistic means/multinomial
The last isn't used very much -- yet.
The key statistical feature of the CL/LEF combinations is that the first order conditions look like those for OLS (combination 1). The residuals add to zero and each covariate is uncorrelated with the residuals in sample. Residuals are uhat(i) y(i) - mhat(x(i)).
So in a logit, the residuals have average zero and zero correlation with covariates. Not with a probit in sample.
The population versions of the sample analogs are what ensure double robustness in IPWRA and consistency when doing covariate adjustment for RCTs.
As a bonus, with the CL/LEF combo, the Hessian depends only on X, not Y. So there's no need to choose between integrating out Y or not. The means that sandwich standard errors tend to be well behaved.
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Because of a recent post at Data Colada, I've been asked about my take on the various heterosk-robust standard errors. In the taxonomy of MacKinnon-White and Davidson-MacKinnon, there's HC0, HC1, HC2, HC3.
HC0 was the original variance matrix estimator proposed in White (1980, Econometrica). HC1 = [n/(n-k)]*HC0 makes a simple df adjustment. Clearly, HC1 - HC0 is positive semi-definite (even PD).
HC2 divides the squared resids, u^(i)^2, by 1 - h(i,i) where the h(i,i) are diag elements from the "hat" or projection matrix. It can be shown that this produces n different unbiased estimators of sigma^2 under homoskedasticity.
On my shared Dropbox folder, pinned at the top, I posted the latest version of my TWFE/TWMundlak paper. It's essentially complete (and too long ...). I've included the "truly marvelous" proof of equivalence between pooled OLS and imputation.
I also fixed some of the material on testing/correcting for heterogeneous trends. A nice result is that the POLS approach with cohort-specific trends is the same as the obvious imputation approach.
This means that using the full regression to correct for non-paralled trends suffers no contamination when testing. It's identical to using only untreated obs to test for pre-trends. But one must allow full heterogen in cohort/time ATTs for the equiv to hold.
Fortunately, the speculations I made in my linear DiD paper about extension to the nonlinear case turn out to be true -- with a small caveat. One should use the canonical link function for chosen quasi-log-likelihood (QLL) function.
So, exponential mean/Poisson QLL if y >= 0.
Logistic mean/Bernoulli QLL if 0 <= y <= 1 (binary or fractional). (We call this logit and fractional logit.)
Linear mean, normal (OLS, of course).
These choices ensure that pooled estimation and imputation are numerically identical.
It's not a coincidence that these same combos show up in my work on doubly robust estimation of treatment effects and improving efficiency without sacrificing consistency in RCTs. Latest on the latter is here:
I finally got my TWFE/Mundlak/DID paper in good enough shape to make it an official working paper. I'll put it in other places but it's currently here:
I changed the title a bit to better reflect it's contents. I'm really happy with the results, less happy that the paper got a bit unwieldy. It's intended to be a "low hanging fruit" DID paper.
Now I've more formally shown that the estimator I was proposing -- either pooled OLS or TWFE or RE (they're all the same, properly done) identifies every dynamic treatment one is interested in (on means) in a staggered design.
For my German friends: What is the German equivalent of "Ms." when addressing a woman (not yet a Dr.)? I noticed on a course application form in English -- I assume translated from German -- only two choices, "Mr." and "Mrs." Is "Frau" used for both Mrs. and Ms.?
As a follow-up: If I use English, I assume "Ms." is acceptable. I never address anyone as "Mrs." in English. It's interesting that "Frau" was translated as "Mrs." rather than "Ms." I would've expected the latter, especially in an academic setting.
My formal German courses were in the 1970s, and I learned that "Frau" is for married women only. I think I can make the adjustment, though. 🤓
I'm still intrigued that there is no "Ms." equivalent in German ....
Here's a panel DID question. Common intervention at t=T0. Multiple pre-treatment and post-treatment periods. Dummy d(i) is one if a unit is eventually treated. p(t) is one for t >= T0. Treatment indicator is w(i,t) = d(i)*p(t). Time constant controls are x(i).