Thread by @YossiGestetner

FDA writes that giving 1 mill male kids age 5-11 a double Pfizer shot can reduce ICUs by 67 visits (if the outbreak continues is like Delta and if efficiency holds steady for 6 months which we know it does not), but can cause 57 ICU visits for myocarditis. fda.gov/media/153507/d…

US has 13 million male children age 5-11. Multiply the CDC’s per 1 million assumptions by 13, and giving them all the COVID Pfizer shots means

2,639 COVID hospitalizations avoided.

2,028 myocarditis hospitalizations caused.

13 COVID deaths avoided.

The FDA’s assumptions about the vaccine benefits for 5-11 year olds does ZERO to assume how much of these marginal gains (marginal from a statistical point; not the pain of each family), can be achieved by caring for COVID-19 instead of telling patients to just sit it out.

I have no idea if a vaccine was ever pushed (or mandated) with the abode risk-benefit factors; including the fact that some of the marginal benefits can be gained by caring for COVID-19 rather than having infected people wait around for doom or luck to succeeded.

The FDA panel looked at these🔺 limited benefits which also get mostly cancelled out by the risk, and conclude “yup, gotta go ahead with COVID vaccines for 5-11 year olds.”

Dummy me used to think that the vaccine approval process is more meticulous than this.

Get this: Since the start of last year through the end of October this year, 10,145 kids age 5 through 14 died from all causes.

That’s 15.18 kids a day.

Vaccinating all 5-11 year olds, will - per FDA - cut 26 COVID deaths over 6 months.

That’s 0.14 a day.

Here are total US deaths per 6-months since the start of last year through the end of Oct of this year:

1.64 mill deaths all ages; all causes.

226,716 COVID deaths all ages.

16,386 kids under 18, all causes.

174 kids under 18, COVID.

(COVID average starts 3/15/20; not Jan.)

The above numbers give context to what it means that - according to the FDA - vaccinating 26 million children age 5-11 will cut COVID deaths by 26 over a 6 month window.

Not a 26% cut.

26 deaths in total while causing myocarditis in a few thousands kids per the same FDA sheet.

“In 2019, 608 child passengers age 12 and younger died in motor vehicle crashes.” - CDC

This is a rate of 304 deaths in 6 months.

The FDA paper above says that 26 COVID deaths among children under the age of 12 can be avoided in half a year if they are all vaccinated.

The 57 added vaccine-induced ICU visits are not necessarily among the 67 kids who would need ICU visits due to COVID-19 if not vaccinated.

So… What’s the risk-reward conclusions here?

Nobody asks. Nobody knows.

(Numbers are among 1 million young boys.)