1/4
In October, for the seventh month in a row, Chinese exports grew by more than consensus expectations (27%), and imports by less (21%), for a staggering $84.5 billion trade surplus in October.
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
In October, for the seventh month in a row, Chinese exports grew by more than consensus expectations (27%), and imports by less (21%), for a staggering $84.5 billion trade surplus in October.
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
2/4
Consensus expectations were for a surplus a little below last month's $66.8 billion. This is China's biggest monthly trade surplus in the past four years (for which I have monthly data) and probably the biggest China has ever recorded, equal to a whopping 5.8% of China's GDP.
Consensus expectations were for a surplus a little below last month's $66.8 billion. This is China's biggest monthly trade surplus in the past four years (for which I have monthly data) and probably the biggest China has ever recorded, equal to a whopping 5.8% of China's GDP.
3/4
The trade surplus year to date is equal to roughly 3.6% of China's GDP. The fact that the trade surplus has risen every month since March would have been much less of a surprise to most analysts if they had recognized that the weak recovery of household income and...
The trade surplus year to date is equal to roughly 3.6% of China's GDP. The fact that the trade surplus has risen every month since March would have been much less of a surprise to most analysts if they had recognized that the weak recovery of household income and...
4/4
household consumption meant that only a surge in investment, which didn't happen, could keep the surplus from rising. If the property crisis means that investment in November is weak, we should expect another huge monthly trade surplus.
household consumption meant that only a surge in investment, which didn't happen, could keep the surplus from rising. If the property crisis means that investment in November is weak, we should expect another huge monthly trade surplus.
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